Hope everyone got PSU before it got to 17'.
Write up:
Let's start off by saying MSU is terrible in Happy Valley. They've lost their last 4 SU and ATS by an avg score of 47-17. Penn State's avg ATS margin of victory in these games is 24 ppg.
MSU's bowl chances were killed last week with the loss to Minnesota and Drew Stanton is likely out for this game with a head injury. I'm sure he'd like to play, but I'm also quite certain the MSU training staff will do what's best for Drew and his NFL future. I like the play more with Hoyer starting, but I still love the Nits whoever starts for MSU.
This is a terrible matchup for a drained and demoralized MSU team. PSU is physical team and they will not give MSU any easy scores on the defensive side of the ball. Penn State has run the ball much more effectively at home then on the road, and Morelli is much improved from earlier this season. Let's not forget PSU's 4 losses are all to teams ranked in the top ten of the BCS, and 3 of those losses were on the road.
It's Senior day in Happy Valley where the Nits are 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS on their home finale since joining the B10. Penn State has 10 senior starters including Kwame Brown, Tony Hunt, Jay Alford, All everything Paul Posluszny and Jim/Tim Shaw. These are all very good B10 players and they will want to leave Happy Valley on a high note.
I will add this is my largest B10 play since 2002 when I took PSU minus 20 against MSU and they rolled 61-7. Not coincidently, MSU was in a similar situation in 2002, as Bobby Williams had been fired and MSU was in the process of mailing it in. MSU's group of players is not the type to show up and play hard in a game like this. This one has no show written all over it.
GL all.