ASU / U of A my take

[Marra]

U of A is a 4 point favorite right now - It's at U of A.

U of A and ASU are very simiilar. Bad coaching. Mediocre QB's. But U of A has a better defense and is at home. U of A should have won last year, but Richardson saved ASUs ass by returning a punt, and a TE on U of A dropped a wide open 40 yard TD pass.

Koetter is on his last legs. Many of the players dont like him. There was a "FI-RE KOET-TER" chant at the game, which was audible on TV.
The rumor is that he might be bought out after the season, but we shall see.

All I know is that the key to this game is defense, and although ASU's is improved, it still is below average.

Carpenter has trouble on the road and he is going to have a hell of a time throwing to bad receivers against two very good corners is Cason (1st round NFL pick) and Fontenot.

The running game is the best its been in Koetters tenure, and Torian and Herring are the perfect 1-2punch. That being said, you cut the head off the body dies. They will get their yards, but U of A has a good enough defense to neutralize them. I definitely dont trust Carpenter to beat them vertically.

Not to mention U of A is playing with BIG confidence after beating Wazzu, Cal and Oregon at Oregon.

U of A is not impressive on offense in the least, but this is not the ASU offense of old that can make up for their defense.

U of A -4 BIG

 

[Dice34]

AZ is definately a better team when they feed Chris Henry the ball and he holds onto it.....hes come on very strong the last 3 weeks

 

[blgstocks]

im already on the under 44.5 on this game

be back with my take later but it sounds an awful lot like yours marra.

GL this week

 

[gjn23]

I'd say that only one team has bad coaching, and you know who that team is.

arizona -3.5/4 looks too easy.........but with the way we've been playing the past three weeks vs the proclaimed "bcs run" scummies season.....i'll lay it!

stoops understands this rivalry and you are right, arizona should have won last year but:

bonehead plays
a dropped td-similar to the te dropping the td pass vs cal
our rb stepping out of bounds on a 40 yard td run when nobody was near him
tuitama getting injured in the 3q
and that punt return

stoops will have this team prepared again and at this time of the year they finally have the confidence to WIN as opposed to hoping to win but waiting for something bad to happen.

31-10 ua sounds about right as the mustard and rust head home and resign coach carp to a lifetime contract!

:0

 

[THUNDER]

YOU DONT LIKE STOOPS COACHING

 

[Marra]

Stoops is an awful in game coach, but his preparation is OK.

In game he is AWFUL.

Let me make a point that U of A has played well this week, but they still aren't THAT GOOD.

Washington State is obviously not that good, as ASU beat them handily as well.

U of A beat Cal at home but they were +3 in turnovers and outgained in yardage pretty handily. Not to mention Cal was in a look ahead mode with SC the next week.

They actually played Oregon about equally, although they were +6 in turnovers.

Not saying ASU can't turn the ball over that many times either, but lets not get crazy and think U of A is THAT good. They are OK. But ASU is not OK, they are below average.

But the key, as I said above, is U of A's defense is legit, and I see another Rudy Carpenter stat line of about 13-30 for 110 yard a TD and 2 picks....something like that.

ASU definitely does not have the WR to stretch the field as is, let alone against two of the better cover corners in the country.

 

[blgstocks]

This seems to be the only thread that anyone is actually analyzing a game so far this week....

Anyway, I have been impressed with Zona's D all year. I definitely think they have the best corners in Pac, what worries me is that Dirk will spread the field and force the corners to stay at home as he will probably be throwing alot of screen passes and smoke and mirrors plays that he loves. I think this is the only way ASU has a chance, because Zona will just load up the box on the run if they cant throw the ball, and there is little chance Carpenter lights up those corners if they get any help from safties. Just my take on it. I think Zona wins this, but this series has been tough to predict for awhile so I will just stick with Zona's very legit defense vs ASU very stagnant offense.

 

[gjn23]

you like defense....how about these numbers

these are arizona's points allowed in the 2h of their games this year:

BYU--6
LSU--21
SFA--0
USC--17
UW--0
Ucla--13
STAN--0
OSU--3
WSU--7
CAL--3
UO--0

on the season, that 7ppg in the 2nd half and in the last 5 games (when we've been playing really well) we've allowed less than 3ppg in the 2nd half

the corners on arizona are great and the safties and lb have been playing lights out...d-line still gets little pressure but asu has looked anemic on offense lately.

i think asu will try to establish a running game, as will arizona.....arizona's recent sucess has also been predicated on turnovers, 13 forced in the 3 game upset streak and i see more turnovers by rudy crapenter.

31-10 arizona

 

[Sun Tzu]

Had zona the last couple of weeks. But I have a feeling they have a clunker this week and Dirk goes out a winner.

 

[treynolds]

Its tough to go against the hot team in this one. Stoops has his team very focused. Last week would have been a perfect letdown spot for them yet they go to oregon and blow them out. ASU was obviosly caught looking ahead last week, but they still moved the ball well against ucla, they just found ways not to get into the endzone all night. I think stoops gameplans accordingly and arizona wins this one by dd.
If i can find 3.5 ill buy to 3, but i still feel comfertable laying 4 in this game.
good luck guys

 

[gjn23]

Had zona the last couple of weeks. But I have a feeling they have a clunker this week and Dirk goes out a winner.

stoops will not allow them to have a clunker vs asu

arizona was overmanned the past two years vs asu and beat the crap out of them in 2004 as a big dog and had them on the ropes last year as a big dog and probably should have won the game outright had they not botched a few plays and the qb gotten injured.

if tuitama goes down then yes, all bets are off as the backups are terrible (and asu has been know to be a bunch of cheap shot artists in this series).

personally i think arizona shows up to play, has another large home crown behind them and wins going away.......but diggler gets an extension because asu gets invited to the poinsettia bowl

(which is almost a red flower, and thus similar to a rose and the rose bowl, which they trumpeted to be heading to in august)

:mj07:

 

[Marra]

stoops will not allow them to have a clunker vs asu

arizona was overmanned the past two years vs asu and beat the crap out of them in 2004 as a big dog and had them on the ropes last year as a big dog and probably should have won the game outright had they not botched a few plays and the qb gotten injured.

if tuitama goes down then yes, all bets are off as the backups are terrible (and asu has been know to be a bunch of cheap shot artists in this series).

personally i think arizona shows up to play, has another large home crown behind them and wins going away.......but diggler gets an extension because asu gets invited to the poinsettia bowl

(which is almost a red flower, and thus similar to a rose and the rose bowl, which they trumpeted to be heading to in august)

:mj07:

Whoa...easy on the Kool Aid gjn.

Beat the crap out of them in 2004? The game when ASU outgained U of A by 100 yards and had 4 lost fumbles? It was embarrassing for U of A's sake that the game was that close at the end.

Don't worry...Koetter will be gone after this game win or lose and ASU will be buying out that extension...which wasn't for "that" much money anyway by the terms of the contract.

Logically with ASU having little confidence, and U of A at home, riding high with a better defense...it should be an easy call. But with rivalry games you never know, and going in overconfident (just like ASU in 2004) could very easily burn you. U of A isn't THAT good.

 

[gjn23]

over the entire 11 games played this year, you're right we arent that good

over the last 5 weeks however we are that good

but, a more interesting point is asu is that bad, diggler is a weasel and im banking on that team laying down and quitting on him if/when the going gets tough this sat.......i know the same wont happen for stoops team.

yes in rivalry games, anything can happen (and the 80's proves that in this rivalry).....but we've had a pretty piss poor stretch of football since tomey left the ua (maybe 16 wins in a 5 year span, 12 vs di teams) but the "national powerhouse" to the north has managed to go 3-2 vs ua.......excellent job.

 

[treynolds]

bet cascade had this line at -3 yesterday

 

[Marra]

over the entire 11 games played this year, you're right we arent that good

over the last 5 weeks however we are that good

but, a more interesting point is asu is that bad, diggler is a weasel and im banking on that team laying down and quitting on him if/when the going gets tough this sat.......i know the same wont happen for stoops team.

yes in rivalry games, anything can happen (and the 80's proves that in this rivalry).....but we've had a pretty piss poor stretch of football since tomey left the ua (maybe 16 wins in a 5 year span, 12 vs di teams) but the "national powerhouse" to the north has managed to go 3-2 vs ua.......excellent job.

who said ASU was a national powerhouse?

How good do you think U of A is? 2nd best team in the PAC 10? I hope you dont think that.

 

[sneek]

is is absurd to think either of these teams are any good. yes uofa has put a little streak together but that means absoulutly nothing in the duel in the desert rivalry. Weve all seen many years when a hot asu team comes in a lays an egg. I have to agree thats stoops is a average coach at best watch him during a game he loses his cool way to often which is exactly what you dont want.

asu is painful to watch was at the game against ucla and we were inside the 5 three time and came out with nothing if we would of kicked field goals we would of won the game which really doent mean much because ucla is garbage. This game is not about whos is better and hotter. It is about who finds a way to win or lose which was the case for asu in 2004 and the case for uofa in 2005.

These are two teams playing for a the tampax bowl and i guess its a big deal for uofa because they have not been to a bowl in a decade. It is two bad teams playing for a bad bowl

To tough a game to call I have no idea which one of the teams will show up because they are both so damn unpredictable

 

[gjn23]

who said ASU was a national powerhouse?

How good do you think U of A is? 2nd best team in the PAC 10? I hope you dont think that.

asu fans
asu athletic dept
etc, etc, etc, etc

as for arizona in the pac-10.....after usc????? why not, whose playing better the second half of the season?????

cal-we just beat them (but they probably are the second best team)

ore-just beat them as well

osu-maybe

ucla-no

i'd say we are the 3rd best team in the pac-10 right now and we may actually tie for 3rd or finish 4th after this weekends games.....so i guess that proves my point and answers your question.

is this team the 2nd most talented? not yet, but they are playing the exact same way the bears played all last year with orton at qb....run the ball, no turnovers, punt, force turnovers, and keep the opponent from scoring......worked for the bears last year and is currently workuing for ua the past 5games....the offense needs improvement and that will come next year

31-10 arizona!

:com:

 

[sneek]

marra

marra

any thought on who you think could possibly replace dirk. I heard a rumor that it could be danny white former quarterback for the devils.

 

[Marra]

The really strong rumor on campus is Norm Chow, currently w/ the Titans as an offensive coordinator (that job was allegedly a stop gap until a college coaching gig comes up).

Lisa Love is very close to him. Furthermore, the rumors are saying that he would bring Dave McGinnis as his defensive coordinator. That would be an ideal situation for ASU.

More rumors are
Steve Mariucci (highly doubt it)
Gene Chizik from Texas
Kragelthorpe from Tulsa
Patterson from TCU
Kiffin from USC
Dave McGinnis
Bo Polini from LSU

The Danny White would never happen with Lisa Love as AD. She really values experience.

 

[Marra]

Dont like that Dr. Bob likes ASU - I respect his statistiacal analysis and will proabably buy back my Arizona bet a few units-

Arizona has pulled off 3 consecutive upset wins over Washington State, Cal, and Oregon, but I'm still not buying into the idea that the Wildcats are suddenly a great team after struggling for most of the season. Arizona's recent win streak has more to do with good fortune (+9 in turnover margin in those 3 wins) than it does with improved play, as they were out-gained in those 3 wins by an average of 39 yards and 0.6 yards per play. Quarterback Willie Tuitama appears to have returned to the form he had at the end of last season, but he still has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play this season (against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback). Since the Wildcats have the same two top receivers as last season I decided to include Tuitama's great numbers from last season to gauge his likely performance level going forward. Tuitama's career average is 5.9 yppp against teams that would allow just 5.6 yppp, so I'll rate the Arizona pass attack at +0.3 yppp instead of -0.5 yppp. The Wildcats still have a horrible rushing attack even after last week's mysteriously good numbers, as they've averaged just 3.8 yards per rushing play this season and my overall rating for the offense is still 0.2 yppl worse than average. Arizona State's offense has been very inconsistent this season, but they've been 0.4 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). However, ASU's attack hasn't been nearly as good since averaging 7.7 yppl in their first two games. If I exclude those two games then I rate the Arizona State offense at just 0.3 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average team). Arizona State's offense rates at 0.5 yppl better than Arizona's attack and you might find it surprising that the defensive numbers also favor the Sun Devils. ASU has allowed 5.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl while Arizona has yielded 5.4 yppl to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team. Arizona State also has better special teams and my math model favors Arizona State by 1 ? points even after making adjustments that favor Arizona (i.e. adding Tuitama's good stats from last year to his sub-par stats from this year and excluding ASU's big offensive numbers from their first two games). I'll consider Arizona State a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.