Week 13 Card (Nov 21st-25th)

[Irish]

MAC ATTACK:scared
Toledo (-6.5) over Bowling Green
Both teams come into the game with 4-7 records, and this is the first time since 1987 that both Toledo and Bowling Green will have losing records in the same season. Kicker trouble for BG, this kid is just not good and if BG doesn't score they will fail on a few attempts and FG's. Toledo's run defense was mediocre all year long, and it got rolled over by Larry Bostic and Ball State last week. In a workmanlike performance, the Cardinal ran 33 times for 143 yards controlling the clock and the tempo. Bowling Green's ground game wasn't effective against Miami, but it's still the MAC's best with QB Anthony Turner and RB Chris Bullock able to run inside or out. The Toledo linebackers aren't playing well enough to keep the Falcons to under 200 yards. Outside of the Miami loss, Bowling Green runs a break, but don't bend, defense. It rarely comes up with the clutch play and never comes up with the stop whenever the offense makes mistakes. If field position is an issue, Toledo should win with one of the MAC's stronger punting games. Bowling Green has been awful in punt returns, worse in punt coverage, and even worse at getting any sort of net yards off the kicks. The Rockets used two quarterbacks, but Aaron Opelt and Cochran combined to throw for just 150 yards. In the previous game, Opelt had 49 yards passing. This is not good and the rockets need to find a QB that works. IMO I like the leadership of Cochran and if the WR don't DROP the ball they should be able to pass on the BG defense. The Rockets lost their second game this season at home after losing just two of their previous 36 games in the Glass Bowl. I like the home field advantage the rockets have even though it has not been that way this season. Tuesday's game at Toledo marks the eighth road contest for the young Falcons this season. The Falcons started the season strong, but inexperience, lack of depth and inconsistent play at the quarterback position derailed the season. Bowling Green has played 27 true or redshirt freshmen this season. The Falcons have just 11 seniors on their roster. A rivalry that dates back to 1919, the first year that Bowling Green played football. A rivalry that has seen scoreless ties, lopsided wins, fights on the field, accusations of cheating, suspension of the rivalry for a number of years, and three very close games in the last three games played in the rivalry. Toledo has won two straight games in the series and has not lost at home to Bowling Green since 1994. Tom Amstutz has declared this the biggest game of the season for the rockets. It is their last home game, during a losing season and I expect this coach to pull out the stops. Last wee I was shocked that Coach A did not loosen up the whistle a bit and get more aggressive but considering I have watched Toledo a bit this season I still think he will pull out the stops. BG has a lot of trouble in the kicking game and they have had many kicks blocked not to mention the poor accuracy. The Falcons lead the MAC in rushing offense (185.8), and third down conversions (41.0). BGSU is third in the league in total offense (347.9), sacks (25), sacks allowed (20) and fewest penalty yards (50.1). The key tonight will be the LB's for Toledo vs. the running back and quarterback for Bowling green. BG will run the ball over and over again and the young line has started to come together. The Toledo defense will need to step up to the plate and at home in the last game I believe they will. The offense of Toledo has the weapon at running back, they have talent at WR and TE and they have a good O-line but it comes down to the QB and tonight I would think he plays a little more relaxed and makes more plays. This is the last game for both teams and Toledo is IMO the better of the two teams. REMEMBER I have been wrong on the MAC the last two weeks but I am an action junkie and I have to think Toledo comes to play and the coach is not out coached again.

Cheers
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

great write-up as usual Irish...gl tonight and the rest of the week

 

[Irish]

Ark (0) over LSU
LSU's D is number one in the country, third in scoring D, eighth against the pass, and most importantly in this game, sixth against the run allowing just 75 yards per game. The defensive line has dominated all season giving up just three 100-yard team rushing games and four touchdowns. Has LSU actually faced a running team yet? Auburn and Kenny Irons moved the ball a bit, but they've hardly been sensational this year. Fresno State got down big early and had to throw. Tennessee's ground game was dead in the water once QB Erik Ainge was knocked out allowing the Tigers to put eight men in the box on every play. The Hog offensive line will hit LSU in the mouth for one of the first times all season long while McFadden and Felix Jones are the best backs the defense has seen. On the other side of the ball, the Hog defense might be among the most underrated in the nation and should keep this from being any sort of a shootout. Take away the 50 point disaster in the opener against USC and Arkansas is giving up just 12 points per game. During LSU's current five-game win streak, Russell has completed 70.8 percent of his passes for 1,113 yards with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. He struggled in last year's home game against Arkansas, completing only 13 of 29 passes for 194 yards with one TD and two interceptions, but the Tigers won 19-17. It was LSU's third straight win in the series since a 21-20 loss at Arkansas on Nov. 29, 2002. McFadden and the Razorbacks now face an LSU defense which leads the country with 227.7 yards allowed per game. The Tigers are third nationally in points allowed at 11.3 per contest. Arkansas is going to come out and play extremely tough defense at home. They have the players on offense to get it done as well. Ark QB Dick will look for Monk who is a bit banged up but will be a threat all day because McFaddens ability. Nutt will throw multiple formations at LSU looking to confuse them which they will as Tenn, and SC did when they played. I also like the fact LSU is not a very strong road team, they won in Tenn but with a back up QB and in the lasy seconds in the game. I do not think they will be as fortunate this week. The home crowd, a tough battle and McFadden give me the reasons for my play not to mention I expect the Arkansas defense to turn more heads than the LSU defense. LSU is fast and they play hard but I am thinking the home field advantage and Nutt gameplanning to pull out all stops will be enough to win this contest. I am looking for Monk to have a big game as the LB's and secondary are looking in the back field for McFadden. Plus look for Williams and the return on FB Hill to be more weapons for the Ark offense.

Hawaii (-16) over Purdue
Like this game a lot and more than likely will re hit it before kick. Love the Warriors in this spot at home against a poor passing defense JUST getting the national ranking they have been trying to earn. The No. 25 Warriors (9-2) moved into the Top 25 for the first time in 13 years this week, as the nation's top passing offense carried them to their eight straight victory Saturday, 54-17 over San Jose State. Brennan, the nation's second-leading passer who averages 377.7 yards per contest. This kid gets no credit because he is in the crazy pass offense of hawaii but he is 6 times the QB Chang was and is a great leader for the warriors. This will be a showdown to speak for Brennan against Curtis Painter, who's seventh in the nation with 280.3 passing yards per game. THIS STAT is very interesting....Hawaii is allowing 233.3 passing yards per game, while Purdue is giving up 226.7 per contest. BUT mind you Hawaii is averaging 434.9 passing yards per game. So basically they let you get your yards but they dare you to keep doing it for the whole game. Yes purdue is a big ten team but they are going to hawaii and playing a VERY late time for the boilermakers. Still I won't sell Purdue down these teams are playing within themselves. Hawaii is 7-0 in its last seven home games, including 6-0 this season. Purdue, though is 3-1 on the road and has won its last three away from West Lafayette. Tiller's team will look to slow down Hawaii receiver Davone Bess, whose 13 touchdowns are the third-most in the nation. Also after the game last week a few purdue players had to be handled by the police, no one of starting caliber but that still will hurt team moral a bit. Again I think Purdue will come out ready to play but the warriors prove to be too much in the second half. Plus a bit of motivation for the hawaii coaches because they have gone on record saying because they are considered a weaker confrence they get zero respect, they will want to beat up on a team from what is considered a stronger confrence.

Cheers
Irish

 

[tulah]

I played Arky also. They've been on a nice roll
runnin thru the SEC this season.
IMO McFadden is the Heisman front-runner next season.

Happy Thanksgiving & GL with your plays.

 

[Irish]

BC (-4.5) over Miami
Interested in why this spread is going down? The eagles are by far the better team and they are playing a team that IMO has mailed it in. The loss against UVA proved this team is going through the motions. Then the coach blames 12 men on the field as the reason Miami lost that game even though that TD was scored with 13 mins left in the game. It seems that Cocker has lost no only control of his team but the motivstion to gameplan. Matt Ryan is the best QB in the ACC and he should be able to pick apart the Miami secondary. If Boston College can win its regular-season finale against Miami on Thursday, it will accomplish a few things it hasn't done in more than two decades. With a little help, a victory could be truly historic. Miami has won 22 of 25 meetings with Boston College, including all seven since O'Brien became the Eagles' coach. HOWEVER Thursday is the 22nd anniversary of the last time BC beat Miami. Eagles' ground game has been picking up steam. Boston College has rushed for 365 total yards to win its last two games, including 124 last Saturday. Junior tailback L.V. Whitworth led the effort against Maryland, gaining 100 yards on 21 carries. Miami also has a lot to play for in this matchup. With a win, the Hurricanes would become bowl eligible and likely earn a trip to the Dec. 31 MPC Computers Bowl. BUT is that enough to get this talented football team to make up or is that an insult to a Miami team used to playing in bigger bowl games? Virginia freshman QB Jameel Sewell completed 23 of 33 for 217 yards against Miami one week after Maryland QB Sam Hollenbach beat Miami with a 65 yard touchdown throw and another 96 yard touchdown pass, Da U?s secondary should be in for a long day. All of the give up that is registering for Miami and they have a freshman QB, that means BC can generate some pressure and get him throwing into coverage. Ryan, the running game comeing together, a lot to play for and Miami is just not an impressive enough team even at home to keep B's offense off he board.

As I stated in my NFL thread... I hope everyone has a very good thankgiving and Good luck to all... eat, drink and be merry and win some money!

Cheers
Irish

 

[boilermaker]

Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family Irish. Good to see you on BC. Gonna have to against you on my Boilers. I know that Tiller has said the game brings no value but do you really think that Hawaii has played all that tough of schedule. Purdue's defense has improved some during the second half of the season. Think the line a total are both over inflated. But then again I'm a homer so what the hell. Good Luck and keep up the good work.

 

[Irish]

Kent (+19) over Tenn
The wildcats have league's best passing attack has been bombing away on everyone averaging 273 yards per game, while QB Andre Woodson has been terrific at keeping the mistakes to a minimum. Woodson leads the SEC in passing, completing 61.9f his passes for 266.7 yards per game and 27 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. Beating Tennessee, something the Wildcats haven't done since 1984. After winning seven games overall, defeating Georgia for the first time since 1966, winning six games at home and putting themselves in a position to earn a bowl game, the Wildcats are ready to take on another goal with one game left in the regular season. At times the Wildcats look like the worst defense in the SEC. The stats agree; Kentucky ranks last in the SEC in all four major categories, allowing 30.2 points, 271 passing yards, 197 rushing yards and 468 total yards per game. Yet, at other times the Wildcats play like the SEC's most opportunistic and resilient defense, especially by leading the SEC with 27 takeaways on 14 fumble recoveries and 13 interceptions. Kentucky is playing better this season but Tennessee remains the more talented of the two teams. Kentucky's offense is capable of moving the ball and putting up points against Tennessee's defense but the Vols are just as capable of tearing through Kentucky's defense for big yards and plenty of points. Both teams know how to force takeaways so don't be surprised if this game comes down to turnovers. Tenn has the better team, more talent and at home but they are spotting close to 20 to a team with a very good offense and will look to come in and shock the Vols.

Ore St (-3) over Oregon
Oregon?s Mike Bellotti won?t unveil who?ll be his starting quarterback until Friday because even he knows there?s no good decision. Dixon and Leaf have both been awful, throwing just one touchdown pass and seven picks between them over the last three games. Dixon has been shaky at best in recent weeks and could implode in the face of a Beaver D that?s forced 27 turnovers. If Leaf starts, he won?t be able to escape a Beaver D that leads the Pac-10 in sacks. It won?t matter, however, if the Duck D continues allowing more than 30 points a game. Oregon State RB Yvenson Bernard is healthy again after running for 168 yards on 36 carries last week to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark for the second straight year. Behind a veteran offensive line, he?ll have another big game against an Oregon defense that allowed Arizona, one of the league?s worst rushing attacks, to grind out 230 yards last week. The Ducks are 10th nationally in rushing, and eighth in total offense with 437 yards per game. The Ducks are averaging 31 points. The Ducks have been magnificent against the pass, ranking third nationally, giving up only 148 yards in a pass-happy Pac-10. One problem: Oregon can't stop a stiff wind in the running game. Eight different opposing backs have run for at least 100 yards, including Arizona's Chris Henry getting 191 yards last week. Oregon is 2-3 on the road and are a totally different ball club in the efficency department. Beavers can pull off revenge for a 56-14 loss to Oregon last year in Eugene.... This is big because A lot of the players on the bevers team played in that game. The beavers offense needs to avoid the mistakes and they have been cutting down on those turnovers. Matt Moore is not throwing into double coverage as much as he did at the begining of the season. The beavers have a very good running back, veteran o-line, a very good TE and the home field advantage. They need the WR's to play well and the QB to make the right throws and the ducks might be struggling to keep up.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Man of Troy]

all over boston college with you irish. ryan has been throwing for nearly 300 ypg over his past three outings and i see that trend continuing today. eagles roll. good luck all

BC -4 3*

 

[AR182]

irish...

good luck & happy thanksgiving..

 

[Irish]

Re-hit BC (-4) over Miami
Fishy smell from the line movement but I have to give the edge to the better team. Yes Miami gets their freshman running back James in uniform tonight but he has also not impressed me as much as I thought he would. Freshman at QB and RB just not making me think Miami has the leadership to handle this game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[trolln4walii]

Hope you had a great Thanksgiving Irish. Top it off with a piece of BC pie for dessert. :mj06:

 

[Irish]

Texas A&M (+13) over Texas
Was looking at this game for awhile because I do not think A&M is as good as they have been given credit for, but this is a big rivalry. Longhorns are getting torched by anyone who can throw the forward pass. UT will have to focus first and foremost on stopping the solid Aggie ground game meaning Stephen McGee should have several openings to get the deep ball working. A&M clearly proved this year that it can play with anyone, but when it comes to crunch time, other teams make the gut-check plays to get the win. The Longhorns haven't lost to the Aggies since 1999 and have won by an average of 20.8 points during their run. Texas' top-ranked rush defense should be tested. The Longhorns are yielding just 42 yards per game on the ground, while the Aggies are averaging 207.5 rushing yards - eighth-best mark in the nation. Texas leads Texas A&M, 73-34-5, in the all-time series ? A&M's last victory in the series came in 1999 at Kyle Field. A&M's most recent victory in Austin came in 1994. The Aggies have enjoyed a 6:31 time of possession advantage. Over the past eight games, the Aggies have enjoyed a 9:00-plus advantage in T.O.P. Sophomore quarterback Stephen McGee is 4-0 in starts away from the friendly confines of Kyle Field. Prior to McGee's ascension to starting quarterback, the Aggies were 3-13 in games away from Kyle in the Dennis Franchione era.:scared Defensively, the Aggies also led the Big 12 while limiting their opponents to a 29.0 percent success rate on third-down tries (40/138) in 2006. Last year, opponents converted 47.9 percent of their third-down situations against the A&M defense. Three of seven conference games have been decided by a single point. In conference play, the Aggies have run an average of 68.4 plays per game, while the opponents have ran an average of 58.4 plays. This will be a hard faught game and I think A&M can battle Texas and keep it close. This is a lot of chalk even if texas is home. The freshman QB was knocked out of the last game and he might struggle a bit with some rust but not a lot. Also scary is the longhorns lost and they will look to rebound but I am thinking A&M and the defense work hard to keep this close. While the offense makes enough plays to stay in the game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Man of Troy]

Like the write up Irish.

A&M is a solid 8-2 ATS this year compared to the Horns at 5-5. The Aggies have also had little trouble on the road, posting a 4-0 record.Let's not forget a stronger Texas team in 2004 beat the Ags by less than two touchdowns and didn't even come close to covering the 29 points they had to chalk last year (tho it was @ A&M). If all goes well McCoy comes back a little shaky as the Aggies hold tough and make a game out of it.

Good luck

A&M +13 2*units

 

[Irish]

MAC ATTACK:scared
small parlay
Ohio (-3) & Ball (-3)

Cheers
Irish

 

[GOAT]

Got Kent would like it even more if Kent had a kicker I know said would not play the Mac like Ohio as well.:shrug:

 

[Irish]

Nebraska (-13) over Colorado
No time for write up, too much drinking to do. I hope Ohio pulls it out.
Cheers Irish

 

[Irish]

What can I say... Ark's QB is rubbish.
Fresno (-14) over LaTech
Small play based on Fresno being the bigger, more talented team with better coaching.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Fresno/LaTech UNDER (51)
LaTech has a very good pass defense, Fresno stinks at the pass. LaTech takes clock to move the ball down field. Fresno also runs the ball well and that means tic toc. Both teams 3-7 so not a whole lot to get amp'ed for and the energy level might be a bit low. Both offenses do not impress and both defenses are suspect yet Fresno is the better team and they should hold LaTech more often than LaTech holds Fresno. Still in those drives that Fresno does put on the board it will take time.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Man of Troy]

i agree irish. tw garbage teams who just wanna get the year over with. maybe casey dick oughtta transfer to la tech or fresno. this ones goin under..

 

[DeadPrez]

BOL Irish! :SIB