chi has played such crappy teams that it's hard to guess how they'll do. I thought up some opposing reasons based on games i watched and want some input
Against CHI:
were losing to ARI and NYG at halftime and only won because of interceptions
only scored 10 points on the jets who have the 29th rush defense.
since they have racked up huge numbers of points on crappy teams their offensive rankings of 14pass and 13rush are inflated
have little basis to see how they will perform against good team
Against NE:
lost to both the "good" teams they played at home, denver, indy
game seems similar to DEN@NE where NE could not get anything going
brady 9 int on season 4 vs colts
grossman 18 int
basically i have no idea what to pick. help
OK, well I agree with others that the best move is to pass on this game, but there is a lot wrong with your assumptions. And yes, I realize ahead of time that I will be called a homer for saying this, but so be it.
First:
"were losing to ARI and NYG at halftime and only won because of interceptions"
OK, well first of all against Arizona it was 2 fumble recoveries and a punt returned for a TD but I get your point and it's valid. For the Giants game, though, that is just flat out wrong. The Bears got 3 points off 1 turnover in the 1st half (meanwhile the Giants got 7 off the Bears 1 first half turnover) and they took the lead in the 2nd half without ever forcing another one. They did get another turnover later in the game but that is what a good D does when it forces the other team to play from behind.
"only scored 10 points on the jets who have the 29th rush defense."
And the rushing game was fine for the Bears. Jones rushed 23 times for 121 yards. That's a 5.3 yard average. I'm not gonna argue that their O didn't look out of synch but it would be a mistake to read too much into that game. Right from the bat they had a very conservative gameplan, due in large part because of the terrible first halfs Grossman had in his prior two games. Since the Jets never got anything going either, there was absolutely no motivation for them to go away from that. That will not be the case tomorrow.
"since they have racked up huge numbers of points on crappy teams their offensive rankings of 14pass and 13rush are inflated"
Want to hear something surprising that no one talks about? The Bears and Pats have played 5 common opponents. They have each played Minny, GB, Buffalo, the Jets, and Miami; the Bears went 4-1 against them while the Pats have gone 6-1. For other over .500 teams, NE has played Cinncy, Denver, and Indy (combined record 21-10) while the Bears have played Seattle, NYG, and the 49ers (combined record 17-13). So while yes the Pats have played a tougher schedule they also have gone 1-2 against those teams (winning only against the now .500 Bengals) while the Bears went 3-0 against theirs (all of whom are at or above .500). Then the Bears played their other 2 games against Detroit and Arizona (one of whom they trounced and the other they barely survived). So the question is does it mean more to play against tougher competition when you lose against them? I think the Bears schedule overall is weak because of who they play the rest of the way (St. Louis, TB, Minny, GB, and Detroit) but up till this point it has not been nearly as easy as some people make it seem.
Now here are what I think the points against the Bears are:
-Though it is unspoken, they would be fine going home 2-1 in their 3-game road trip since they can almost sleepwalk through the rest of the year and still wrap up homefield advantage since they are 3 up with 6 to play.
- When Grossman is pressured, he has proven to be a turnover machine. Bellicheck knows when and how to bring the pressure.
- If the Bears D doesn't pressure the QB, they can be thrown on pretty easily. Especially with Mike Brown out for the year and Ricky Manning serving his suspension.
With all that said, this game will come down to one thing: Rex Grossman's performance. When he plays well, it is very very hard to beat the Bears. When he plays poorly, they can lose to anyone. Unfortunately, his ratio this year has been only slightly above 50-50, and the only reason the Bears don't have 3 more losses is because of a nice 2nd half turnaround against the Giants by Rex and the Bears D bailing him out against Minny and Arizona. So the only thing I can offer you is that the spread will most likely not come into play. If you want to play the Bears, just play them SU and get the extra odds. If Rex plays well they will win; otherwise it's probably blowout city.
GL whatever you do.
