Do you ever feel like you waste your time handicapping?

[The Big Tease]

Hope this doesnt come off as sour grapes, because I feel it is a legit question.

But dont you think that just about all games come down to a couple of key plays/situations, and if they dont go your way, you are screwed.

As I watch this Oklahoma game, Nebraska has done just about everything you could ask except come up with any kind of significant play in the red zone, and has turned it over at the most inopportune times.

Nebraska has played good defense and has moved the ball better than Oklahoma with the exception of 1 drive, which I believe was a direct result of one heartbreaking 3rd down conversion on the 1 foot line.

So I am not disappointed in my handicapping and am just left wondering why I am sitting here watching a game where I really never had a legit chance to win this bet.....

Oh well, sorry for the ramble

 

[Allnet]

they were in it, but they really weren't. I may have watched too much of it...I've gone bonkers.

 

[The Big Tease]

That is the weirdest thing about it. I felt like they competed just fine on the field. However, on the scoreboard they were NEVER really in it.

Just weird.....

 

[TON]

Was on the Rutgers Under, if he catches that TD Pass, WV is forced to go for it 4th and 4 from the 12, instead they kick the FG. Ther rest is OVER

 

[Nick Douglas]

Don't fall into that trap. Even the best handicappers never hit above about 58% of their ATS plays over the course of a lifetime. That means that a huge number of your correctly handicapped games will go to sh*t while a huge number of your poorly handicapped games will come up winners.

I'll tell ya, though, it does drive you crazy when you get games like that. Here's hoping your next one goes the opposite way.

 

[GENO]

Mort Olshan of the Gold Sheet said many years ago " half of the games you handicap will be determined by a some twist of fate, a fumble, a call, etc. the other half you can hope to hit 60% on, thus out of 100 games you hit 30-20 on them, the remaining 50 being 25/25. But with careful line shopping and strict money management, 55/45 is enough to slowly make money long term.

 

[stwoody]

Feels like this whole season in College Foots has been a waste of time for me! LOL:mj07:

 

[The Big Tease]

Yup, Geno, that was my very next statement.......with what you said being true, it really make you cringe at guys that tout PLAYS OF THE YEAR, and HUGE PLAYS, etc.

I still say that information and gut feelings are only good for about 5%-8% either way over the long haul. This is obviously a 50-50 business........and you cant make money at this over the long haul by fluctuating your bet amounts, etc.

The less discipline you show in this, the more the books love you.

I made the mistake of betting more than I normally bet tonight....nothing that is going to kill me, but I am sitting here thinking where I went wrong in my handicapping.....and I dont think that was the case at all.....just bad money management

 

[Sooner P.I.M.P]

A wise man once said you cant handicap the bounce of the ball. True Nebraska played well their run D was outstanding but it is very though to play uphill all game long plus even though it seemed like they were moving the ball they never had anyone "go to guy" or anyone step up when it matterd most!! their only points all night came off a red zone turnover. Bottom line is you prob did a good job handicappin the game but thats the way the ball bounces sometimes. you'll get the next one

 

[The Sponge]

Hope this doesnt come off as sour grapes, because I feel it is a legit question.

But dont you think that just about all games come down to a couple of key plays/situations, and if they dont go your way, you are screwed.

As I watch this Oklahoma game, Nebraska has done just about everything you could ask except come up with any kind of significant play in the red zone, and has turned it over at the most inopportune times.

Nebraska has played good defense and has moved the ball better than Oklahoma with the exception of 1 drive, which I believe was a direct result of one heartbreaking 3rd down conversion on the 1 foot line.

So I am not disappointed in my handicapping and am just left wondering why I am sitting here watching a game where I really never had a legit chance to win this bet.....

Oh well, sorry for the ramble

been away from betting college football for a few years and since i have been doing it this year i never seen so many bad receivers bad kickers, bad quarterbacks and bad coaches. Watching stupid play after stupid play week in week out makes me just want to never bet this sport again. Take the Florida game for example. To watch this dumb kid try to catch a punt on the 4 over his shoulder i have to laugh. You can't handicap that. Its hard to cap stupidity and then right before that the coach calls his third timeout to punt? Are you kidding me? I swear i don't remember the coaching or the players being this stupid. I took florida in the second half and luckily pushed my bet but usually im on the side of the kid who makes the brilliant decision to catch a punt on the four over his shoulder. I would just love to sit down with this kid and ask him to take me thru his mindset on that play.

 

[dangerously]

Hope this doesnt come off as sour grapes, because I feel it is a legit question.

But dont you think that just about all games come down to a couple of key plays/situations, and if they dont go your way, you are screwed.

As I watch this Oklahoma game, Nebraska has done just about everything you could ask except come up with any kind of significant play in the red zone, and has turned it over at the most inopportune times.

Nebraska has played good defense and has moved the ball better than Oklahoma with the exception of 1 drive, which I believe was a direct result of one heartbreaking 3rd down conversion on the 1 foot line.

So I am not disappointed in my handicapping and am just left wondering why I am sitting here watching a game where I really never had a legit chance to win this bet.....

Oh well, sorry for the ramble

The game looked even on paper, lots of people where on Neb. lined showed that. THE BOOKS NEEDED OKLAHOMA.... that was the side to be on!

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Exactly. Arkansas prob. wins outright, or at least covers/pushes if that dumbass doesn't catch the punt.
I am a HUGE believer in fundamentals, such as, putting your heels on the 10 yd line and if it goes over, then let it go.

But, if I'm going to bend a little.....do me this favor. DO NOT FAIR CATCH ANYTHING INSIDE THE 10!!!
I mean really....YOU ARE DOWNING THE DAM THING FOR THEM!!!!

At least if you field it at the 5 with the intention of running, you've got a chance. I am amazed at who gets to play college football.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

I also had Nebraska but didnt watch any of that game.

 

[THE KOD]

on the side of the kid who makes the brilliant decision to catch a punt on the four over his shoulder. I would just love to sit down with this kid and ask him to take me thru his mindset on that play.

..............................................

OK listen kid why did you try to catch that punt over your shoulder ?

Kid - huh

OK let me ask you this. Have you taken a statistics or probability course yet in college ?

Kid - Huh