tennessee st @mtsu

loophole

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 14, 1999
4,421
170
63
nc
mtsu -7: not often inclined to play the favorite in a rivalry matchup but this is a terrible spot for tennessee st. tigers just played alabama in tuscaloosa on saturday afternoon and, while i have seen no express info on the subject, given their budget i assume they bussed the 250 miles back to nashville and arrived in the early morning hours. tsu is not a very deep team and basicly rely on a six man rotation, with two players, clarence matthews and ladarious weaver, doing more than half the scoring. even though state was never in the game vs alabama, four of the five starters logged more than thirty minutes, with weaver, the team's only outside threat, playing 38 minutes. just seems a bit odd to me that coach alexander would run his starters to the bitter end with this game coming up in 48 hours. in addition, state has their ovc conference opener vs se mo on thursday.

the fatigue element is one element the tigers don't need, as they are a poor shooting team under normal circumstances, hitting 35% fg, 23.5% treys and about 60% from the ft line. they only shot 36% from the floor in their only two wins in the las vegas holiday tourney, but their hapless opponents, towson st and prairie view, managed to shoot even worse. to top things off, tsu is a very bad ballhandling team, logging almost twice as many turnvers as assists.

in contrast, mtsu seems to have overcome the loss of star guard adam vogelsberg to a broken foot, playing solid ball in consecutive home wins over belmont and indiana st. they shoot well at home, 47% from the floor and 41.7% from the three point line, while holding opponents to 39.2%fg and 25.6% treys. under coach kermit davis, they have a nice 23-4 s/u record in nonconference home games, and (on point) are 58-3 when outshooting an opponent, which seems likely as hell tonight. while those runs are s/u numbers, they've also covered over 70% of their home games oveer the last couple of seasons.


glta
 

kcwolf

Registered User
Forum Member
Aug 1, 2000
7,224
21
0
Iowa City
gl to us, the only game I found. Breathing a sigh of relief you saw some of the same things.

Merry Christmas!
 

gsp

Registered User
Forum Member
May 26, 2000
10,437
18
0
Watch yourself on this game. I know both teams very well and at first I thought MTSU was a easy play. Then I looked and I had a situtation that was 9-2 calling for the dog in this game, another situation that is 8-3 calls for the dog.
 

pops

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 22, 2006
126
0
0
What about the under? Assuming Kermit Davis still subscribes to the Larry Eustachy school of coaching (not drinking!) this should be a low posession, grind it out, run motion every time down the court type of game.

Seems to have been the MUTS MO so far this season going under in all but one game. 129 is low, but low-scoring games, which I think this will be whether it stays under or not, scare me away from an 8 point line.

Thoughts?

pops
 

loophole

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 14, 1999
4,421
170
63
nc
thanks for the input guys. as i mentioned, not usually inclined to lay the chaulk in these rivalry games, but i usually dance with the girl i took to the prom, so when my methods spit out a play, i usually stick with it so i'm not pissed off later if it hits. agree that the under is a logical play, but won't play iin this type of game because if it plays out closely it could push the total over this low number and i'd be stuck twice.

and kc - are you going to vegas? thinking about it and was going to check the guest list for old rowdy friends and you came to mind.

g/l
 

jr11

08-18-05
Forum Member
Jul 19, 2002
5,830
29
0
114
HELL
You are doing a great job. Like the wirte-ups. Quietly going about your business and picking winners. All the best.

jr11
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top