I agree, good thread. And I also agree on gsp and BDB as 2 of the smartest....but tell me, PLEASE TELL ME SON! you are NOT throwing IO in that mix?
:nono:
:argue:
:nooo:
:look:
:liar:
:s4:
:s1:
:bsflag
okequestion for everybody on sharps and public
- Thread starter Coach Woody
- Start date
I agree, good thread. And I also agree on gsp and BDB as 2 of the smartest....but tell me, PLEASE TELL ME SON! you are NOT throwing IO in that mix?
:nono:
:argue:
:nooo:
:look:
:liar:
:s4:
:s1:
:bsflag
okeAre we meant to connect the dots in this thread....
... . . . .
. ...
Perhaps by doing so the inner meaning of gambling, probability, nay life, might be revealed.
It is after all a conspiracy theory that holds equal claims to truth as most set forth here.
Gamblers cetainly do have vivid imaginations. :rant2:
Anywho...
I'd disagree.
The line is set at 3, exactly because of public belief. The line has nothing to do in the way of prediction of the final result. The bias toward team A forces the line their way, because the money is set to come their way. The line is set up in anticipation of the money movement, it's a prediction of the money movement.
In such a case if you happen to be a team A supporter you are getting the short end of the stick because you're going to get less of a return for the risk you are assuming. And that's how vegas make money, by paying you less than they should for the relative risk you have assumed. In the long run people get stuffed.
In the example, if you believe in team A, you really shouldn't be backing them because you are not getting value for your money. Unless of course you feel team A are stronger favourites than the line.
If however you believe in team B, you are in luck as you are getting good value for your money.
Bottom line: you still have to cap.
Vegas is never suprised!
And you should't be suprised either.
"Freak" results have always been a part of sport, and always will be.
Following money is a waste of time.
Money/line movement is rarely significant in evaluating an outcome.
The best place to take note of money movement is on a race course, and only in particular circumstances. Mind you, it never guarantees a result. Nothing does!!!
Money pouring in one direction due to valid information is interesting because it means that there has been a valid shift in the balance of things but by the time you get to it, the most likely thing is that there will no longer be any value left.
Anyway.
Besides all the technicalities, I'm a strong believer that Vegas makes money by exploiting human nature. Simple as that.
The majority are happy to give their money away, and if by chance they end up winning they are sure to give it back at the next available chance.
The Miami play seems like a good one.
I wouldn't play it because of the initial line posted though.
You should look at the matchup.
It's all in the matchup
... . . . .
. ...
Perhaps by doing so the inner meaning of gambling, probability, nay life, might be revealed.
It is after all a conspiracy theory that holds equal claims to truth as most set forth here.
Gamblers cetainly do have vivid imaginations. :rant2:
Anywho...
Interesting thought.
I'd disagree.
The line is set at 3, exactly because of public belief. The line has nothing to do in the way of prediction of the final result. The bias toward team A forces the line their way, because the money is set to come their way. The line is set up in anticipation of the money movement, it's a prediction of the money movement.
In such a case if you happen to be a team A supporter you are getting the short end of the stick because you're going to get less of a return for the risk you are assuming. And that's how vegas make money, by paying you less than they should for the relative risk you have assumed. In the long run people get stuffed.
In the example, if you believe in team A, you really shouldn't be backing them because you are not getting value for your money. Unless of course you feel team A are stronger favourites than the line.
If however you believe in team B, you are in luck as you are getting good value for your money.
Bottom line: you still have to cap.
Vegas is never suprised!
And you should't be suprised either.
"Freak" results have always been a part of sport, and always will be.
Amen!
Following money is a waste of time.
Money/line movement is rarely significant in evaluating an outcome.
The best place to take note of money movement is on a race course, and only in particular circumstances. Mind you, it never guarantees a result. Nothing does!!!
Money pouring in one direction due to valid information is interesting because it means that there has been a valid shift in the balance of things but by the time you get to it, the most likely thing is that there will no longer be any value left.
Anyway.
Besides all the technicalities, I'm a strong believer that Vegas makes money by exploiting human nature. Simple as that.
The majority are happy to give their money away, and if by chance they end up winning they are sure to give it back at the next available chance.
The Miami play seems like a good one.
I wouldn't play it because of the initial line posted though.
You should look at the matchup.
It's all in the matchup
lets see if mimai wins out right.......think they might
the bets the public make fund vegas............so stands to reason if most of the public has an inflated image of a team..............then in the long run going agaist the public is the right move.......
the bets the public make fund vegas............so stands to reason if most of the public has an inflated image of a team..............then in the long run going agaist the public is the right move.......
- Mar 2, 2006
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thats just it i don't know where to find that info.
I just use things I read and what I have as far as a thought process on what most people think...
Yeah in a way made up but only made from listening and talking with poeple..........
Would love to know your site
I just use things I read and what I have as far as a thought process on what most people think...
Yeah in a way made up but only made from listening and talking with poeple..........
Would love to know your site
McGrady is possibly/likely out for Houston. Phil Jackson's next championship team (NOT) is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in Houston (2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS over the last 3 years). Lakers have just come off a nice public win over SA. Line started dropping most likely with the release of the injury. Then had a nice bounce up and continued downward. I have no idea what I'm talking about but I'm going to say that wasn't the average Joe momentarily moving that line and I don't know if it was "smart $$" or not. The public numbers I've got say they are all on the Lakers. Also throw in the fact that Koby the great may not be up for this one coming off the big SA win and the deadly Mavericks on deck. The Lakers "should" crush this Van Gundy coached team but my money will be on the giant Oriental.
I am a long time viewer, first time poster. A very good topic. My definition of Smart Money "Sharps", is when majority of the public is on a team and the line goes in the opposite direction. For instance, today at 11:15am, the St. Mary / Nevada line went from 11.5 to 10.5 with 72% on the favorite "Nevada". This tells me "Smart Money" landed on St. Mary's. Currently, I have 79% on Nevada.
I have watched this for several years, and had great success. Now watch Nevada blast St. Mary by 30....
I have watched this for several years, and had great success. Now watch Nevada blast St. Mary by 30....
I'm on St Marys as well. I'm perfect in college hoops this year (1-0), so were dead.:sadwave:
Sounds like a sound enough strategy.
I'm guessing how well it works depends on where you are getting the public consensus from and which bookie line you're eyeing.
How well does it work?
More to the point how often does it occur?
I'm already on St Mary too. :mj06:
gl
gl with your plays
with that said the most common mistake that even longtime posters and winners make is getting involved in the public money.
there is NO PUBLIC MONEY going on the st. mary's/nevada game. NONE. There are wannabe handicappers trying to find an edge, there are joes guessing for action, and there may even actually be smart money.
but its important to note the distinction that whereas maybe 25 percent of the people watching the monday night game had action on it, and that's a lot of households.....outside of people on these boards and people in those colleges, NO ONE knows the game is going on or cares.
people wrecklessly throw public around all the time. your 73 percent is probably the percentage of internet handicappers who bet 10 bucks a game. doesn't make it bad. doesn't mean your info is wrong. i'm just so tired of people saying the public is smashing St. Mary's. The public doesn't even know what state St. Mary's is in.
Again, good luck with your play and by fading the percentages you can't go too wrong long term.
But also be careful with "smart money" if you are guessing at a one point line change. Could be a big tuna looking for action and guessing. smart money certainly doesn't play every game. and the public isn't chasing on this one.
gl hope you and IO win
I'm going to guess
I think Smart$$ is getting his numbers from one of the sites I use as well. This site posts consensus numbers for 16 books. It could very well be the case that most of the players are of the $10 variety. For now, there is the same # of bets as any other college game on the board. What I'm saying, is it is getting as much action as the other sides. Actual money is not available, that is why I look at a few other sites and those wonderful things called trends (lol). Yesterday, from the info Smart $$ site had on the pro games, the public hit the top games they were on. You are very correct, any and all info can only be taken so far and it comes down to the game on the court and one teams ability against another.
That is why I'm not feeling confident about Houston's ability to score enough, more than the opposition, but also enough to overcome their weak coach, and I mean that.
I think Smart$$ is getting his numbers from one of the sites I use as well. This site posts consensus numbers for 16 books. It could very well be the case that most of the players are of the $10 variety. For now, there is the same # of bets as any other college game on the board. What I'm saying, is it is getting as much action as the other sides. Actual money is not available, that is why I look at a few other sites and those wonderful things called trends (lol). Yesterday, from the info Smart $$ site had on the pro games, the public hit the top games they were on. You are very correct, any and all info can only be taken so far and it comes down to the game on the court and one teams ability against another.
That is why I'm not feeling confident about Houston's ability to score enough, more than the opposition, but also enough to overcome their weak coach, and I mean that.
I watch the top 15 sportsbooks.
These moves do not happen every night. For instance, I did not see any for the NBA tonight.
There have already been several moves for this weeks NFL.
I collect a ton of info. And I believe to much info can be a bad thing. Over the years, I have tried to weed out most of it.
These moves do not happen every night. For instance, I did not see any for the NBA tonight.
There have already been several moves for this weeks NFL.
I collect a ton of info. And I believe to much info can be a bad thing. Over the years, I have tried to weed out most of it.
I understand. Atlanta is Square, not Smart. I have a different set of criteria for those.
Thanks!!!
Thanks!!!
I definitely think Blue is correct about one thing. Smart money HAS TO be wrong more than right. If this weren't the case, I think Vegas and books in general would be history, regardless of the fact that there may be way more "average Joe's" out there than sharps. The sharps would bury the books (with more $$) over time regardless of how much money is on the other side.
To me it's a matter of finding more filters and picking your spots......and most importantly, not kidding yourself and forcing anything. This is something I have yet to learn.:sadwave:
I am close to posting in caps and I'm still waiting for my own (forum) stalker. Then I'll know I've hit it big.:bigun:
To me it's a matter of finding more filters and picking your spots......and most importantly, not kidding yourself and forcing anything. This is something I have yet to learn.:sadwave:
I am close to posting in caps and I'm still waiting for my own (forum) stalker. Then I'll know I've hit it big.:bigun:
Well it shouldn't really matter if there's real money on it or not.
The contrast between public opinion moving one side vs a line moving the other way has interest.
"Public" could be a a consensus poll at a certain site, or a consensus of certain handicappers' selections, or a consensus of actual bets made at sportsbooks.
"Money" could be the line movement at any bookie, or a select few, or whatever.
I'm sure one could find the ideal matchup situation between 'public consensus' and 'money' movements for each sport.
One that works better than other matchups.
One that has a good strike rate at flagging games that have more to them than meets the eye.
My guess is a simple poll vs money at a sportsbook known to offer the best prices would be the best matchup. Just a guess. Joe Schmo's "opinion" vs hard earned cash. I wonder if a poll of the broadest kind would be better or if one resulting from a more specialised audience might be better...
Anyway, opinion vs conviction is a nice enough clash. Should throw some things up.
That's all it is in the end. A flag.
What you do with it is another matter.
(Unless of course a nice little strike rate comes into play)
Are you paying good money for this info?
And how much time goes into this?
I'd be interested to know the sites, and look into it. I like to look into the elusive as much as any other gambler. But I certainly wouldn't pay money for such info, or be willing to waste massive amounts of time.
btw I'm on St Mary's because someone with a good strike rate is on em. No other reason.
And I have no idea which state they are from
Don't think I'm motivated enough to find out yet either. :tongue
