Nickel & Dime Money Lines

[Godzilla 1]

I just wanted to know if there is anyone out there that does this?

I have been following a lot of you over this last year via all of the sports and I have won my share and lost my share as well.

About 4 months ago I decide i would try something new.....I decided to see if I could nickel and dime the sportsbook.

I realize that all you good cappers would never do this because of the threat to lose big money. But with all of you guys I have made good amount of money

these past 4 months. My formula is "Madjacks Cappers" + "Spread" + Consensus data + and a bunch of more things. I am very choosey on what games I play.

I have only had one big loss which took me 4 days to recoup from it. So far it has allowed me to pay extra on bills.

To me I would rather win $10.00 on a bet with a higher win rate then to loose 100.00 on a bet that is 50/50


I would be interested in hearing from all of you.

 

[blgstocks]

I definitely agree with your 10 with higher win rate over gambling for large profits theory.

You need a big roll to have any kind of success nickel and diming the books. How I understand it, and correct me if I am wrong, is that you get a ML on a team thats going to get heavy action at -250 and then wait until the dog that doesnt get heavy action ML move to +251 or more. That way you have zero risk. If the line doesnt move with you and you don't like the side you are on then buy out of it, or tease out of it to try and still gain a profit. If the line doesnt move and you like your side you stick with it and hope for the win.

OR you could buy lines down into the +110 and higher range at pinny if you think the line will move with that team and then you can hedge for profit later. Pinny has this option to buy the line around. Of the sports I have played NCAA Hoops easily have the most volatile lines. Especially overnight lines, some guys on this board claim that with 1 bet they can move the line .5, and I believe them. So if you are consistent with it and pick and choose your places, you really expose yourself to little risk and a small but sure profit when you are right about the line movement, which might be as hard to geuss who will win the game, lol and thats probably why people dont do it as much.

GL with your venture

 

[Godzilla 1]

blgstocks,

You are a wealth of information...Thanks. I never looked at it that way. hmmm

After re-reading your post I do mainly do what you talk about. Just never buy back. I am usually

80% that I will win.

Example: Last night I took Arizona ML 1600

I bet 320.00 to win $20.00.

To me if AZ lost then I deserved to lose all that Money.

This is where I need to be careful.

Tonight. I am going out on a limb that the Wizards win ML-142 to win $100.00

Going with my heart...But we shall see.

I also like to follow "NCCBB" & BillyBlastoff....But when I follow him I usually buy points as well. makes me feel better.

I am ave about 750.00 - 1000.00 a month.

I also follow you too...

 

[shamrock]

you'll can be successful doing what you're doing, just don't get greedy! I was very successful years ago playing that technique, then lost huge in a Oklahoma St/OK Football game, OK was like minus 1400. I played them and got stung good. 2 things you absolutely HAVE TO STAY AWAY FROM.
1 GREED 2 RIVALRY GAMES

chip away like you are doing making 20-40 dollars, something where it will only take 5 or so plays to recoup a loss. Only play games you'll have research with high probability, don't force games, some nights you'll have zero plays. Stay away from rivalry games where the underdog is playing at a elevated level.

 

[hammer1]

Added Note................

Added Note................

I have been parlaying Money Lines with 2 3 games to bring the juice down for years.has worked great for me..................Surprised not much discussion around here on that. heck if ur playing fer 1 2 hundred bucks a pop its free money!!!! Ya aint gonna lose many.

 

[Godzilla 1]

Yes ....GREED :scared

Very tough not to put a wager on something when you win most of the time.....Last week in NCCAABB was tough. but followed some good cappers in NHL and won some $$

There were 3 days last week during NCCAABB that I took off for rest. A MUST!

 

[blgstocks]

Godzilla, thanks for the kind words. I was confused as to what you were talking aboput when you said nickel and dime the books. I thought you meant getting the juice in your favor on at least 1 side so that no matter who wins you have positive expectation.

After rereading your post I have to say that if it is successful for you then keep it up. Also you might look into parlaying some of those heavy ml together to cut the juice like hammer said. I know that "the only one" in nba hoops is pretty solid at picking outright winners and I have cashed 3 straight off of him so check him out if you dont.

Only problem I have with laying alot of juice to get a few bucks is like you said .... the risk. I don't like to risk that much of my roll on any one game, even if it is almost a for sure thing. I would suggest reading New Market Wizards. It is about the securities market but from point of views from guys that pretty much gamble for a living and are ridiculously good at it. One of the things that would apply here from the book is that there are traders in the book that have done extensive research and are convinced that the PERCIEVED risk of an event happening is usually alot less than the ACTUAL risk. You can apply this to gamblng in that the ML on heavy chalk are usually too expensive, that the risk of a team losing is actually alot greater than the percieved risk of "there is NO WAY they can lose". I can think of many example this year, but the bears -1100 ml was a botched fg away from being toast. I am convinced that the bucs would have won more than 1 out of 11 in that match up, making the ml a losing bet in the long run. If you look at the difference between the ML fav and ML dog I would geuss that the actual expectation of the fav winning are somewhere between the two. Of course there are exceptions, and it sounds like you have done well finding these exceptions.

and again gl and keep on winning!