WayneWonder Divisional Round

[WayneWonder]

Wildcard Weekend: 3-2
Sides: 3-0
Totals: 0-2

Philadelphia @ New Orleans

This is a rematch of Week 6 in the Superdome won by the Saints 27-24. The Saints were able to win the game with a 72-yard, 16 play drive that chewed up the final 8:26 before Carney kicked a 31-yard FG.

The Saints offense is full of playmakers. It all starts with Brees. The Saints led the NFL in both total yards and passing yards per game. He has many weapons at his disposal, including Horn, Colston, Bush and McAllister. They were able to score 25.8 points per game, good for fifth in the league.

A few keys stand out to me when capping this game.

1. Third downs. The Saints were 6th in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert just 34.7% of third downs. During the first game, the Eagles converted just 3/10. Against the Giants, they were only 4/13. Both games were decided by a field goal, so imagine what the Eagles could do converting just 50%.

2. Running the ball. The Birds have gotten more balanced with Jeff Garcia at the helm. They have rushed for an avg. of 144.0 yards in their last three games. The Saints allow an NFC-worst 4.9 yp/c and give up 128.9 rush yards per game. Despite the Saints gaudy offensive numbers, they were not very effective running the ball this season. A common theme in their losses were an inability to run the ball effectively. Throwing out the Week 17 meaningless loss to Carolina, they avgd. just 76.8 rush yards in their losses. Worse yet was the 3.39 yard per carry. If the they cannot run against the Eagles, they cannot win.

3. Experience. The Saints have many playoff newcomers on this team. The last time they made the playoffs was in 2000. Joe Horn is one of the only players still remaining from that team. Sean Payton, Reggie Bush, and Marques Colston are all rookies, while McCallister has never played in a playoff game. The Eagles have been in the playoffs five of the last six years and have a veteran-laden team. The Saints are just 1-5 all-time in the playoffs and have never hosted a second round game before.

The pick:

Philadelphia +5
Philadelphia +205

 

[WayneWonder]

***Disclaimer*** Despite what you are about to read, I in no way, shape or form support the Patriots or any of their subsidiaries.

What a matchup the football gods have presented us for this weekend. Could Marty be any happier that his team, the champions of the regular season, riding a ten-game win streak and possessing the league's MVP get to open at home against one of the most dominant playoff duos in the history of the game??? He gets another chance to silence all the critics who claim that he cannot win in the playoffs. And all he must do is defeat a QB and coach who have combined to go 11-1 in the playoffs with three SB wins. Easy, right??

The Pats looked, well, like the Pats last week in their dismantling of the NY Jets. The game was actually close until the fourth quarter when the Patriots went on a long 13-play scoring drive, then followed that up with an Asante Samuel pick six.

The Patriot defense did a great job of limiting the Jets to field goals most of the day, despite allowing the Jets to get deep into their territory more than once. Meanwhile the offense looked to be in playoff form, racking up 26 first downs, 358 total yards (158 on the ground) and doing a great job of extending drives (11-16) on third downs.They scored on every possession from the second quarter on.

Strength meets strength in this game. The Chargers have the leagues most efficient red zone offense, scoring TD's 67.7% of the time. The Patriots counter with a 34.3% rate of allowing TD's once their opponent reaches the red zone, second only to the Ravens. In fact, they have only surrendered 12 TD's inside the 20 all year.

Looking for a blueprint to beat the Patriots in the postseason??? Denver did it last year by forcing the Pats into five turnovers, which is not the Patriot way. In fact, they have turned the ball over just seven times in their eleven playoff wins under Brady. San Diego, despite a +13 turnover ratio, does not do a great job of forcing turnovers. They finished the year with just 28 takeaways, but turned it over a league-low 15 times.

I feel like the Pats will be able to score in this game and they should be able to make stops when it counts against this vaunted Charger offense. Marty has to prove to his team that Martyball is dead and he will not inhibit them with his playcalling. River's lack of experience probably does not help that cause. The Patriots are playoff-tested and they know how to make life difficult for even the most savvy quarterbacks. (see Manning, P.). It should be close, but nobody is better than finding a way to win the close games than Tom Brady. Patriots in what is sure to be an instant classic.

The pick:
New England +5
New England +208

 

[clark]

eagles secondary has to be a major question mark in this game don't you think? i'm pretty sure horn will play so your gonna see alot of will james who hasn't played in 5 weeks and then only sparingly on field as nickel. i've been to a few birds games this year and hood and consedine are very average. don't feel eagles will be able to compensate for loss of sheppard. what say yee?

 

[Love is Love]

I'll go on record right now and say no team in the league would beat the Saints this weekend......Just as no team would have beat them in week 3 in the SD...No team is beating them in their first playoff birth since 2001...first time the franchise has ever got a bye in the playoffs......And with the mentality down there in NO surrounding this game....I would almost throw everything out the window this week. The Saints will win, and win pretty big. If you want more "evidence" or stats or something, I can give you this...

Reggie Bush was not much of a factor in the Saints offense at all when they first played...His role has been increased every week. Should be even more so this week.

Sean Payton is the most on the cusp, or innovative in terms of week to week gameplanning of any coach in the league...Meaning, expect at least a dozen new formations and 2-3 dozen new plays. Things the Eagles won't be ready for.

Joe Horn is healthy, Colston is healthy, Henderson has new confidence since Horn was out and he stepped up....

 

[WayneWonder]

eagles secondary has to be a major question mark in this game don't you think? i'm pretty sure horn will play so your gonna see alot of will james who hasn't played in 5 weeks and then only sparingly on field as nickel. i've been to a few birds games this year and hood and consedine are very average. don't feel eagles will be able to compensate for loss of sheppard. what say yee?

Clark...concern over the secondary this week is a valid one. The Saints should be able to exploit this weakness. But any team playing the Saints, healthy DB's or not, has been concerned about this. They had the number one pass offense in the league. I look for Johnson to call less blitzes to protect his young guys, but we still have Dawkins and Sheldon Brown back there.

The Eagles need to keep the Saints from extending so many drives. They allowed the Saints to hold the ball for over 10 minutes in each of the first and fourth quarters of the first game. They were outscored 20-7 over that span. When TOP was more balanced, the Eagles outscored the Saints 17-7.

We were able to shut down the run and make the Saints one-dimensional. The Eagles would be wise to employ this tactic again. It is ironic that for so long, this was the Eagles identity. Go pass wacky. Now the very thing that has been their downfall in previous games (Giants in week 2 comes to mind) could be the key to them advancing. The Eagles were unable to take any time off the clock late in the game against the Giants and allowed Little Brother many chances, which he took advantage of, to get the Giants back into that game.

Teams that were able to defeat the Saints employed this tactic. I already mentioned the rushing stats in my earlier post, but Brees averaged 44.2 passes in NO losses.

 

[clark]

philly may rely a little too much on bwest. went to phi/atl game and diagreed when they pulled garcia after first series.he had a nice rhythm going in the past few games and didn't think reid should have messed with it. after giants game i think i might be more right than wrong. also think people look at saints losses to cincy and pitt as if they were out played when in fact they should have won they were the better team if not for some stupid turnovers and penalties and actually came close to beating ravens but for 2 int returned for td ! philly in my opinion needs at least 3 turnovers to even stay close ! may the better team win!

 

[WayneWonder]

Sean Payton is the most on the cusp, or innovative in terms of week to week gameplanning of any coach in the league...Meaning, expect at least a dozen new formations and 2-3 dozen new plays. Things the Eagles won't be ready for.
.

Great point...He is such a daring and innovative coach (see gameplan against Dallas) but it is one thing to make those calls in the regular season. It takes serious stones to make those same calls in the playoffs. Also, I cannot see the Saints changing things up too much...Number one offense in the league. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

 

[Love is Love]

I'll just say, tread lightly on this game..But then who am I...You know do what you feel will make you money...I just know that the city of NO is treating this game like a SB...And over the past two weeks the build up has been crazy. I just don't know if PHI really understands that or will come with the same mentality..I mean PHI is playing for the chance to play next week...NO is playing for an entire city that was decimated a year and half ago....This is all a lot of them have right now.

 

[grandemush]

Just wondering if anyone has paid attention to the end of Brees' season from about the mid point of the Washington game and beyond?Granted, the Carolina game was meaningless, but the balls he's putting in the air don't seem to have the same zip that they did pre-Wash. Did he possibly re-injure his shoulder?:shrug: If so, they are in for a long day.

GO BIRDS!!!

 

[clark]

important stat for new Orleans 6 losses-16 turnovers****10 wins--7 turnovers high risk- high reward and with most intangibles going there way i.e at home ,2 weeks off......?

 

[Emersonboozer]

The Eagles have really gotten lucky enough to play and barely beat some very average to downright bad teams. The panthers had them beat but blew it with an INT, and same with the Skins whom were running the ball at will but didnt stick with it. The overachieving Eagles will be outcoached and out motivated this wekend. The eagles smallish defensive line against a very good rushing offense and add the extra week and one day rest and the eagles are in trouble. All the games the eagles lost this season are ones where they were beaten at the liune of scrimmage and this game is pointing in that direction. Also coach payton has owned the eagles during his time in the NFL. He out thinks jimmy Johnson each time they play and he probably will do so again. The eagles will be beaten physically early in this game. They arent that good just havnt played anyone lately.

 

[WayneWonder]

Indianapolis @ Baltimore

Indy travels to Baltimore this weekend trying to reverse recent history. This is their fourth straight appearance in the divisional round (1-2) and Peyton's playoff struggles have been well documented. The struggles extend to the Colts as a team. They are just 2-7 outdoors in the postseason. Manning has a 1-4 career road playoff record with 5TDs & 7INTs. He has avgd. just 222 yards in those games.

The Baltimore Colts, err Ravens, surprisingly have the NFL's best home record since 2000 (42-14). In the regular season, their defense ranked No. 1 in NFL yards allowed (264.1), interceptions (28), 3rd down conversion attempts (28.8 pct; 60 of 208), and points allowed (12.6 per game). They are 5-2 under Billick in the playoffs.

The Ravens may change their usual 4-3 defense into a 3-4 and pressure with Bart Scott and Ray Lewis rather than Terrell Suggs and Adalius Thomas. The 3-4 has been Peyton's kryptonite over the last few years and the Ravens certainly have the athletes to play this style.

The Colts were very successful running the ball against Kansas City. They rushed for 188 yards but should be hard pressed to duplicate this effort against Baltimore. They have only allowed two 100-yard rushers (LJ and Travis Henry) and ranked 2nd in the league in both rush yards against and avg yards per rush.

Baltimore forces an average of 2.5 turnovers/game and has been very opportunistic when they get their hands on the ball. They scored six defensive TD's this year and are 5-0 in games when the defense scores. Since their Week 7 bye, they have recorded 41 sacks while allowing just 7.

For me its Ravens or bust.

The pick:

Baltimore -4

 

[clark]

you would have to admit ravens are offensively challenged. rely on defense too much for turnovers and great field position with alot of field goals not tds. peyton has good stats vs balt and if he doesn't turn ball over 3 times ,colts should control field position and make Baltimore go on an 80 yard drive. which they haven't done that much this year. are we talking dolly parton bust?