Are you on drugs Sponge? Every line at pinnacle has a bettor dog price. if you play dogs you are getting better value at pinnacle no matter what game you bet
Pinnacle shutting down to U.S. customers
- Thread starter parlayinn
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Sponge is, though not conveyed too clearly, about 90% correct...
It's very important to note that the square side is not necessarily the favorite in every game... and betting on a site like sports interaction, though the limits are small, is a lot easier to beat than the sharpest book in the world, pinnacle... there is a reason they can offer the lowest juice, they have the toughest lines to beat...
Just in my personal opinion, the best way to determine a play on either side is to analyze who the public is placing their money on and then compare the difference in lines from places like pinny and the greek compared to places like bodog and sia... every game wont have a two point edge, but there is FREQUENTLY a .5 to full point differential...
Only other thing i'll say is that in my experience the line differential within the last hour before a game starts tends to be larger as pinny is quickly moving their lines and certain other sites may take 5-10 minutes to make the same move... that's where you can sometimes get the 2 point difference...
Finally, the comparison on the bears game is useless as pinny will have that game set at 9.5 with random juice no matter what... they cant afford to let that game be teased on a 6pter for 100s of thousands..
I understand i am just a lurker with no clout... hope some of this information/opinion can be helpful
It's very important to note that the square side is not necessarily the favorite in every game... and betting on a site like sports interaction, though the limits are small, is a lot easier to beat than the sharpest book in the world, pinnacle... there is a reason they can offer the lowest juice, they have the toughest lines to beat...
Just in my personal opinion, the best way to determine a play on either side is to analyze who the public is placing their money on and then compare the difference in lines from places like pinny and the greek compared to places like bodog and sia... every game wont have a two point edge, but there is FREQUENTLY a .5 to full point differential...
Only other thing i'll say is that in my experience the line differential within the last hour before a game starts tends to be larger as pinny is quickly moving their lines and certain other sites may take 5-10 minutes to make the same move... that's where you can sometimes get the 2 point difference...
Finally, the comparison on the bears game is useless as pinny will have that game set at 9.5 with random juice no matter what... they cant afford to let that game be teased on a 6pter for 100s of thousands..
I understand i am just a lurker with no clout... hope some of this information/opinion can be helpful
no the bears game is a perfect example just in reverse. They very well know that all they want is seahawk money so they are higher than everyone else. They know every square out there will bet the Seahawks. I have nothing against sqwuares because they win to but this is how it is. Another thing money isnt the only thing that moves lines and it rarely does. Anyone who believes this is way way way overmatched. If this was last week when the books killed i could show this a whole lot better. This week things are a lot tighter and i knew it would be from doing this stuff for years.
the only thing i disagree with you on is if you are betting against the public then you would want the line move. if it opens at +1 and the public is betting it to +2' over the week. it will generally keep moving in that same direction the closer you get to game time. For sure betting against the public is one of the best angles there is.
To be honest, a guy with 15 posts in 4 years usually has something pretty meaningful to say when he finally speaks.
Post count doesn't = clout. Just take me as an example:com:
You are correct but it works reverse. Have you notice that a lot of squares like the dogs this week? Most dog bettors like most of the favorites this week.
you didnt catch my poiint.. the reason pinny has the game at 9.5 instead of the 8.5 that most other books have is cause they do not want that game to be teased to bears -2.5.. maybe you know, it's called a wong teaser when an nfl game crosses over the 7 and the three and it has been proven positive expectation for the bettor if a 2 teamer involves two teams which both cross over those two pivotal numbers (7 and 3) even at -110 for 2 teamers... lot of guys have made a living off these for a long time and, once again, the sharpest book (pinny) has cutoff that avenue... that is the only point i was trying to make about the bears game..
you see agent people think im a cancer to this site but i dug this guy out after four years of lurking
I agree man, nobody else does, I seem to see eye to eye with you a bit, which is why we are both always ripped on :shrug: pinnacle had good value but shaded their lines to trap people on certain sides which looked too good, ie like you said, make a spread 1 point less but mess with the money line aspect, its a good deal but they also are very smart and know how to suck people in, and you can read a lot by how they shade money lines and use it to help pick your own games, siding with them is usually a good thing in my experiences
big og i know exactly what you are saying but i dont buy it. A buddy of mine who i think is also a good handicapper says the same things as you i just respectfully disagree with them. My point is that of all the dogs (if you can read a line and that isnt a dig at you) the Seahawks will far and away get the most action on them because this line is a joke with this shitty quarterback. Pinnacle knows stuff in my mind that is along the lines of inside trading. Im not gonna go any farther on that point but they know the squares will line up for this game like no other. I just went to a consensus site that i would trust before any and they are the most heavily picked team. That kinda proves my point on them being the most heavily picked. I do understand what you are saying tho.
Sponge,
We dont disagree on the correct side to bet in that game at all... i will be on the bears, regretfully as i cant stand them, and it's not close... one of my "public percentage" sites shows them at under 40% and that is truly unheard of for a 9 point favorite at home to be anything less than 65% consensus pick... if the books wanted even action on this game the number would be 7... they're dying for seattle money, agreed
We dont disagree on the correct side to bet in that game at all... i will be on the bears, regretfully as i cant stand them, and it's not close... one of my "public percentage" sites shows them at under 40% and that is truly unheard of for a 9 point favorite at home to be anything less than 65% consensus pick... if the books wanted even action on this game the number would be 7... they're dying for seattle money, agreed
Hey guys....what good sportsbook offers ML's overnight if any?? Obviously Pinny did, so now I need to find another. Thanks!
If you bet like me and it looks like you do i think i would tread lightly this week. I just have this bad gut feeling this week.
i swear you ripped me a new asshole once but i can take it i think. People who think or bet like this will always be the minority.
no, I may have disagreed, but I actually agree with you often, us new york and philly guys just not very well received on here :shrug: I have not been a winning bettor all the time and I dont bet big enough for it to matter, but I''ve come along way...in poker, and sports, you'll ALWAYS get people berating you for an "unpopular" pick or bet or the like, yet often times it will win, i am not for bragging or giving a crap arguing w/people, results speak, a lot of people with too much to say around......pinnacle does know something imo, why else are they shading lines bigtime and moneylines and usually right, unless they just move it based on sharp play and their own linesmaker whos obviously very good, It's interesting I dont know the answer nor does anyone
