******* representatives Doug Upstone and Steve Makinen sat down this week for another ******* Scuffle to review many of the Super Bowl Prop odds available for Sunday?s big game at BetCRIS and Sportsbook. This is Part 1 of the two-part series, covering team props. On Tuesday, look for Part 2 covering the player prop options.
The Scuffle is one of the more popular regular features on *******, as Doug & Steve, with the help of some occasional guest panelists break down the hot topics in sports and sports betting, offering insights and opinions flavored with a dose of comedy and competitive zest. The dialogue below is a look at the thought process they undergo when reviewing proposition wagering.
Now, on to the Super Bowl betting options?
*******: Hello everybody, we're here today for a special Super Bowl Edition of the ******* Scuffle, matching the wits of ******* Doug & ******* Steve on the big game. We will be reviewing many of the available bets being offered in various places for Sunday's Chicago-Indianapolis Title Contest, everything from the side and total, to the props. So without further ado, I welcome in ******* Doug & ******* Steve. Good day gentlemen and welcome to the ******* Scuffle.
******* Doug says: Hello Steve, seems like just yesterday that we were doing this exact same thing for Seattle & Pittsburgh, only me better than you! Man how time flies!
******* Steve says: Yes it does Doug, and I suppose at your age, it flies faster than most. I?m surprised you can even remember last year?s Super Bowl.
******* says: Ok guys, enough of the ?pleasantries?. We will be covering a lot today so for the format, I will list the bet, then you can each list a thought or stat about that option for Sunday's game. It will be more of an opinion sound-off than a debate. Sound good? Ok. First up...
Game Pointspread
INDIANAPOLIS -6?-110
CHICAGO +6?-110
SF Doug: Chicago happens to get the right opponent to have success in this year's Super Bowl. The weaknesses of Indianapolis match-up with the strengths of the Bears. Figure Chicago's defense and rushing game to keep them in the game to the wire.
SF Steve: If you consider the pointspread from a "value" perspective, you'd have side with Chicago. On a neutral field in the regular season, this spread is probably only 3 points. Plus, siding with the better defensive team is normally a sensible bet.
Game Total
OVER 48?-110
UNDER 48?-110
SF Doug: Neither coach has go for broke tendencies, thus I believe more conservative action will prevail in this contest. That should mean a lower scoring game with the total in the low to mid-forties.
SF Steve: This total seems to be more predicated upon the Colts' season totals than Chicago's. Keep in mind here that the Indy defense played well before the AFC title game, and the Bears' unit has clearly had some great stretches. Lean Under.
Game Money Line
INDIANAPOLIS -255
CHICAGO +215
SF Doug: The actual moneyline is not in accordance with traditional moneyline numbers. Typically a 6.5-point favorite would be about a -275 favorite. Thus the Colts on the moneyline is actually a solid value.
SF Steve: The straight up winner in the Super Bowl is 32-5-3 ATS, although two of the losses occurred in the last three seasons. I don't expect that trend to continue, so feel comfortable in accompanying any spread bet with a money line play.
Game First Half Line
INDIANAPOLIS -3?-115
CHICAGO +3?-105
SF Doug: I see Chicago as the team with less pressure to win and wil not come out as tight. Wouldn't surprise at all if Bears have halftime lead.
SF Steve: I tend to feel that underdogs are the better play in big game first half bets as typically they are well prepared enough to hold off any talent difference there may be early. Therefore, getting Chicago at +3.5 in the first half is probably a good play.
Game First Half Total
OVER 24-120
UNDER 24+100
SF Doug: Field goals not touchdowns will dominate the first half of action. Bears lead 13-10 at the half with both teams moving pigskin.
SF Steve: Particularly in the last half-decade, there are more points scored in the second half of Super Bowl games than the first. The teams generally take the first half to feel each other out, looking for things that will work in the second. Under 24.
Game First Quarter Line
INDIANAPOLIS -?-120
CHICAGO +?+100
SF Doug: Take the Bears with two Robby Gould field goals, to lead over one from Adam Vinateri 6-3.
SF Steve: Unless there are mistakes, the conservative nature of the first quarter would lead me to side with taking the half-point here. Unlike the 2nd & 4th quarters, teams will not rush drives to get a score in before the time expires.
Game First Quarter Total
OVER 10-110
UNDER 10-110
SF Doug: Listed above as nine points, even though this was typed just seconds later, I will not waver in my convictions. Play Under.
SF Steve: My logic thus far would indicate a siding with the under on this 1st quarter total play, but 10 seems pretty low. In fact, I would venture to guess that at 10, there's a good chance everyone will push on this bet. Pass.
Game Second Quarter Line
INDIANAPOLIS -3-105
CHICAGO +3-115
SF Doug: Each team will score a touchdown making each team's fan pleased. Nonetheless, the Monsters of the Midway still maintain halftime lead and win this prop with even score.
SF Steve: I guess I don?t understand how oddsmakers choose to split up the quarterly spreads like they do? Why would Indy be a 3-point favorite in the 2nd quarter and only a 1/2 point favorite in the first. Either way, I don't like this play.
Game Second Quarter Total
OVER 14-105
UNDER 14-115
SF Doug: Backed into a corner calling for 7-7 second quarter, maybe a late Vinateri field goal off a Chicago fumble has this going Over the total.
SF Steve: If you're siding anywhere near the under, you would have to like an under bet for any quarter as high as 14 points. This would require multiple drives finished off with TDs and both teams have struggled with this over the past month or two.
Game Third Quarter Line
INDIANAPOLIS -?-115
CHICAGO +?-105
SF Doug: Colts open with touchdown drive in second half to take the lead and maintain the lead throughout the remainder of the quarter with fifteen minutes left.
SF Steve: By the third quarter, all of the adjustments will be in place. If I'm to side with the favorite in any of these quarterly options, this would be it. I would give Dungy and Manning the edge in adjusting over Smith & Grossman.
Game Third Quarter Total
OVER 10-125
UNDER 10+105
SF Doug: Based on Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison as the only touchdown of the third quarter, the Under is a sound play with a better then average payout.
SF Steve: Using the same logic as the spread play for the third quarter, after the teams make the halftime adjustments, their first drives should have a good chance of producing points. I'll play the OVER -125 here.
Game Fourth Quarter Line
INDIANAPOLIS -?-110
CHICAGO +?-110
SF Doug: After hitting the first three quarters correctly, each team scores a touchdown
SF Steve: Fourth quarter bets are the hardest to project to me, because the final quarter of any game is entirely dictated by how the first three quarters have gone, both from a spread and total perspective. Therefore, I'll pass on this one.
Game Fourth Quarter Total
OVER 13-115
UNDER 13-105
SF Doug: As both teams score touchdowns we wrap up this prop with about five minutes left in the game and sit back with favorite beverage counting the cash we made on the day.
SF Steve: Another pass for me. There are two schools of thought on a 4th quarter total. If one team is in desperate come from behind mode, the total is likely to go over. If the game is close, and both teams are trying to avoid mistakes, the under is the play.
Game INDIANAPOLIS Point Total
OVER 28?-105
UNDER 28?-125
SF Doug: Chicago defense creates enough three and outs early in "The Big Game" and keeps Manning and company under the number somewhat comfortably at 24 total points.
SF Steve: Indy has topped the 28-point mark just three times in its last 12 games, and is now playing one of the best statistical defenses in the NFL. It would only make sense that the play here is on the under. Indy can still win this game with less than 28-1/2 points.
Game CHICAGO Point Total
OVER 21-110
UNDER 21-120
SF Doug: Chicago fans are grinding teeth wondering why the beloved Bears had to settle for field goals in the first half. This prop goes below by a single digit.
SF Steve: Using the same thinking as for Indianapolis, Chicago's offense is really being slighted by oddmakers. The Bears have topped the 21-point mark in 11 of their last 15 games. If you think Chicago has a chance to win, the OVER 21 is an automatic.
Adjusted Game Pointspreads
INDIANAPOLIS -3.5-160
INDIANAPOLIS -10.5+155
INDIANAPOLIS -14.5+210
INDIANAPOLIS -17.5+290
INDIANAPOLIS -21.5+450
INDIANAPOLIS +3.5-380
INDIANAPOLIS +7.5-700
INDIANAPOLIS +10.5-1000
CHICAGO +3.5+130
CHICAGO +10.5-195
CHICAGO +14.5-260
CHICAGO +17.5-380
CHICAGO +21.5-700
CHICAGO -3.5+290
CHICAGO -7.5+450
CHICAGO -10.5+600
SF Doug: The Bears at +10.5 points holds the most to this prop king. Nice paydays with the Colts against big numbers look fun, but Chicago catching this many points as less then a 2 to 1 ratio expense suits my wagering tastes.
SF Steve: I typically don't buy numbers down, since the only thing that matters to a team in the Super Bowl is winning. I try and find value with better odds. Anyone following Chicago like myself would have to consider the Bears at +3.5 +130 or -3.5 +290.
Super Bowl XLI - Margin of Victory
CHICAGO Win By 01-06 pts 4-1
CHICAGO Win By 07-12 pts 7-1
CHICAGO Win By 13-18 pts 12-1
CHICAGO Win By 19-24 pts 30-1
CHICAGO Win By 25-30 pts 50-1
CHICAGO Win By 31-36 pts 75-1
CHICAGO Win By 37 or more 50-1
INDIANAPOLIS Win By 01-06 pts 3-1
INDIANAPOLIS Win By 07-12 pts 3-1
INDIANAPOLIS Win By 13-18 pts 9-2
INDIANAPOLIS Win By 19-24 pts 8-1
INDIANAPOLIS Win By 25-30 pts 20-1
INDIANAPOLIS Win By 31-36 pts 40-1
INDIANAPOLIS Win By 37 or more 25-1
SF Doug: The idea here is to win, not hit the home run that is unlikely to occur. If a person needs to go for broke, I would recommend Mike Vick's custom water bottle first before making selection.
SF Steve: This is a tempting set of odds to take a look at. With 5-point ranges to choose from, some pretty realistic scenarios offer odds as high as 12-1. Buying Chicago to win by 1-6 points at 4-1 or lose by 1-6 points at 3-1 beats a money line bet.
Adjusted Game Total
OVER 37.5-360
OVER 41.5-250
OVER 56.5+200
OVER 61.5+290
UNDER 37.5+280
UNDER 41.5+200
UNDER 56.5-250
UNDER 61.5-380
SF Doug: Prefer OVER 41.5 for adjusted total. If rain is in the forecast on Super Bowl Sunday in Miami, UNDER 41.5 at +200 would be best play in given conditions.
SF Steve: I am of the belief that the two defenses in this game will be the units that decide the outcome. Indy's defense is underrated, and Chicago's defense regained some confidence in the NFC title game. I'll side UNDER 41.5 with nice +200 odds.
Total Points Scored by Both Teams
00-07 Points 500-1
08-14 Points 75-1
15-21 Points 25-1
22-28 Points 12-1
29-35 Points 6-1
36-42 Points 4-1
43-49 Points 3-1
50-56 Points 3-1
57-63 Points 4-1
64-70 Points 8-1
71-77 Points 20-1
78 or More Points 25-1
SF Doug: I'll take my 3-1 wager at 43-49 points and be happy I was able to clip Sportsbook.com for more additional cash.
SF Steve: This prop is very similar to the Adjusted Total offering, only the range of points and odds combination could be more lucrative. With the under 41.5 bet at +200, you can get better overall odds by taking the 36-42 (4-1) & 43-49 (3-1) options here.
Coin Toss
Heads ?105
Tails ?105
SF Doug: Odds strongly in favor of tails, with heads only having a 50 percent chance of winning.
SF Steve: If you bet any props in the Super Bowl, make sure this is one of them, as it gets the 3-1/2 hours of wagering off to a fun start and nothing demonstrates more your level of passion. For fun, I'll go Tails, because tails never fails.
Team to Win the Coin Toss?
INDIANAPOLIS ?105
CHICAGO ?105
SF Doug: With Indianapolis the visiting team, they will call the coin toss correctly, which will be the turning point in them racing to victory. Perhaps a slight exaggeration on my part, but Colts call is still correct.
SF Steve: Last year I won this bet simply by fading Jerome Bettis, who of course has a history for bad coin toss performance. Unfortunately, I don't know of any distinguishing trends with these two teams. You're on your own.
Team to Receive the Opening Kick Off
INDIANAPOLIS ?110
CHICAGO -110
SF Doug: Indianapolis after winning the toss will want the ball in hopes of grabbing early lead to place pressure on underdog Bears.
SF Steve: These odds surprise me, as I would have figured Indianapolis to be the favorite. Chicago and Lovie Smith figure to want their defense to set the tone, while Dungy would like the ball in the hands of his stud QB first. Indy -110 seems solid.
Team to Score First
INDIANAPOLIS ?165
CHICAGO +135
SF Doug: Chicago stifles Indy on first drive and has good field position. Two first downs later the Bears Gould kicks 40+ yards field goal as Da Bears score first to take early lead.
SF Steve: The team to score first prop is rarely as simple as taking the team you figure to have the ball first, but it does give you the benefit of having more possessions with a chance to win the prop. Vinatieri gives the Colts a good shot to win at -165.
Team to Score LAST
INDIANAPOLIS ?140
CHICAGO +110
SF Doug: The Bears are down 11 points and manufacture drive to pull within 4 points with eight minutes to go in the contest, making for interesting ending.
SF Steve: Team to score last? Who cares unless the Super Bowl Title is on the line. To me, this is one of the harder props to predict each year, the reason I've never played it. Good luck to you if you do, as long as it doesn't affect my spread or total bet!
Team to Score FIRST Will Win the Game?
YES -200
NO +160
SF Doug: NO, Chicago scores on Gould field goal and maintains lead into third quarter when Indianapolis takes control and wins game.
SF Steve: I don't have the statistics to back this up, but I can remember a lot of past Super Bowls where a team took the lead early only to get blown out the rest of the way. With a game that figures to be back & forth like this one, NO at +160 may have value.
Will there be a Score in the Last 2 MIN of First Half?
YES -250
NO +200
SF Doug: NO, each defense will have been tested to that point and with two weeks to prepare, will be well schooled on the importance of not giving up points before the half. Players also want to see Prince in person and will be amazed this little man gets women.
SF Steve: Another fun bet. I usually tend to make my plays on this prop based primarily on the quality of the kickers. In this case, Gould and Vinatieri are accurate and capable of hitting long last second tries, so for me, YES is the only way to go.
Will there be 3 Unanswered Scores in the Game?
YES -200
NO +160
SF Doug: Each team will score twice in a row, yet both will fail to make it a three times as defenses hold giving field position and scoring chances to get right back into the game.
SF Steve: I've done some studying of this particular prop over the years and am always amazed at the regularity with which three unanswered scores happen in even close games. Still, -200 in a game I expect to be tight is too rich for my blood.
Will there be a Successful 2-point Conversion in the Game?
YES +400
NO -550
SF Doug: If by chance the Bears score later than anticipated in the fourth quarter, then it is a possibility, however my Magic 8 ball says, "Not this time."
SF Steve: Doug reminded me last year of the infrequency of 2-point conversions in the Super Bowl. So despite some very enticing odds, I have to shy away. Remember a team has to attempt a 2-point conversion to make it. That in itself is rare.
First Score in the Game will be a TD or FG/Safety?
TD -175
FG or Safety +145
SF Doug: Without a doubt a field goal. Conservative play-calling will have both squads trying to score first in any manner and be satisfied to just grab a lead.
SF Steve: I've mentioned this already, but both the Colts and Bears have had some problems stuffing the ball into the end zone in recent action. With two solid kickers squaring off, I think there's a good chance a field goal, at +145, is the first points on the board.
Will there be a Score in the First 7-1/2 MIN of Game?
YES -175
NO +145
SF Doug: YES, Bears score field goal just past the nine minute mark of the first quarter to grab the lead.
SF Steve: It's always amazes me how quickly the first quarter breezes by in the Super Bowl, with both teams erring on the side of conservative. Still, both kickers can hit consistently from 50 yards in, making even short drives with a score possible early.
First Scoring Play of the Game will be?
CHICAGO Any Other Touchdown 15-1
CHICAGO Field Goal 4-1
CHICAGO Safety 50-1
CHICAGO Touchdown Pass 7-1
CHICAGO Touchdown Run 11-2
INDIANAPOLIS Any Other Touchdown 25-1
INDIANAPOLIS Field Goal 3-1
INDIANAPOLIS Safety 50-1
INDIANAPOLIS Touchdown Pass 5-2
INDIANAPOLIS Touchdown Run 4-1
SF Doug: Gould's field goal will be the first score of the game for Chicago and I nab early cash to make me feel cocky to try some other prop bets!
SF Steve: As I look into my own crystal ball, I see the Colts starting the game at their own 33-yard line, then after a series of three first downs, lining up to kick a field goal for the game's first score. Does Viantieri make it??YES, and my 3-1 bet cashes in!
Total First Downs by INDIANAPOLIS?
OVER 22?+115
UNDER 22?-145
SF Doug: UNDER- Can not see the Chicago defense being pushed around to give up that many first downs. More likely the Colts would hit a few big gainers then meticulously moving the chains.
SF Steve: If Chicago's defense does come to play its "A" game on Sunday, they will not allow more than 22 first downs. The Bears allowed only 16.1 per game in the regular season. Keep in mind, last year's game featured only 34 first downs total.
Total First Downs by CHICAGO?
OVER 18?-115
UNDER 18?-115
SF Doug: OVER- Not by much, as the Chicago running back Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson keep the offense rolling, churning out first downs to add up to 21 total.
SF Steve: There's a few things working against Chicago in its quest for 19 first downs. The Bears take chances down the field with long balls, they have scored several times via special teams, and they'd rather have the game in the hands of their defense.
Total Field Goals Made by Both Teams?
OVER 3?+125
UNDER 3?-155
SF Doug: UNDER - This will appear dicey with three in the first quarter, however smooth sailing the rest of the way with only touchdowns being scored.
SF Steve: I've commented several times already about the impact I feel these two solid kickers will have in the game. Vinatieri, as always, has been automatic in the postseason. Gould led NFL kickers in scoring and also made big kicks in the playoffs. OVER 3.5.
Team to have Longest Field Goal Made?
INDIANAPOLIS -125
CHICAGO -105
SF Doug: Robby Gould has bigger leg and drills the longest field goal of the day, which will the first one.
SF Steve: To me, this year's longest field goal made prop is as reliable as the coin toss. Both kickers are capable of hitting long field goals, so the winner of the bet will be determined by which offense stalls out closest to the edge of field goal range.
Team to Punt First?
INDIANAPOLIS +105
CHICAGO -135
SF Doug: Indianapolis will punt first after gaining no more then one first down on opening drive.
SF Steve: Unless semi-professional body builder Todd Sauerbrun is out there punting on Sunday for New England, does anyone really have any interest in this prop? Man, that dude is big. Perhaps he could be wedge breaker on kickoff coverage too.
Team to Commit First Turnover?
INDIANAPOLIS +100
CHICAGO -130
SF Doug: My crystal ball (which is next to magic 8-ball) sees Grossman either throwing pick or leaving on the ground in game changing situation.
SF Steve: I believe Chicago's offense is probably more susceptible to the turnover than Indy's, but on the flip side, the Bears defense is the more opportunistic of the two units. In other words, turnovers are fluky and I don?t like risking my hard earned money on them.
Team to Score First in the 2nd Half?
INDIANAPOLIS -140
CHICAGO +110
SF Doug: Indianpolis holds the Bears to three and out to start second half, gets the ball at own 40 and marches sixty yards for go ahead touchdown.
SF Steve: Since I believe Indy will get the ball first to start the game, Chicago will then have its turn to start the second half. Again, if that plays out, this gives the prop bettor the likely benefit of having more possessions to win this prop with the Bears at +110.
Which Half will more Points be Scored in? (OT included in 2nd Half)
FIRST +100
SECOND -130
SF Doug: Not surprisingly it will be the second half which will favor touchdowns instead of field goals.
SF Steve: Over 54% of points in the Super Bowl are scored in the second half, with 33.4 PPG in the second half of the last four games. With evidence that strong, I couldn't possibly endorse taking the first half at +100.
Team to Score the Longest Touchdown?
INDIANAPOLIS -135
CHICAGO +105
SF Doug: Since Indy plays Cover 2 defense, it will be hard to Bears to play bombs away. With Harrison or Reggie Wayne, it figures the longest TD would come from them.
SF Steve: This actually figures to be one of my favorite prop bets of all. Other than the fact that Indy is supposed to get MORE touchdowns, the Bears have the two players capable of producing the biggest scoring plays, Berrian & Hester. Chicago +105.
Team to Commit More Penalties?
INDIANAPOLIS +135
CHICAGO -165
SF Doug: Chicago committed 26 more penalties during the regular season, thus it stands to reason that would be the case in the prop wager.
SF Steve: Hopefully this year's game doesn't come down to which team the referees like better. I think we can all remember the controversy surrounding the officials in the 2006 game. In any case, there must be a reason Chicago is so heavily favored.
Will there be a Defensive TD or a Kickoff/Punt Return for a TD?
YES +155
NO -185
SF Doug: NO- I wish I had a good reason, but I don't. Just trust me on this one, have I led you astray yet?
SF Steve: The Bears have demonstrated an uncanny ability to come up with big plays via their defense and special teams. Historically in the Super Bowl, these plays also happen frequently. Take a chance here at +155, the odds are better than last year (+150).
Will there be a Score in the Last 2 MIN of the 4th Quarter?
YES +110
NO -140
SF Doug: NO- Chicago will need a touchdown and not a field goal late and will come up short in trying to take lead and capture Super Bowl.
SF Steve: Only the most dramatic of Super Bowl games tend to have a score in the last two minutes. Although I figure this game to be close, it will wind down with either one of the defenses stepping up, or the team in the lead lined up in "victory formation".
Total Quarterback Sacks by Both Teams?
OVER 4+155
UNDER 4-185
SF Doug: I actually like four as a total, thus will side on the side of aggressive play and go with the better payday of OVER. Maybe Grossman is sacked late to put the number OVER.
SF Steve: In their last five games, Chicago & Indy have combined to record 22 sacks and allow 21. That's an average of 4.3 sacks per game between the two. I don't think it?s unreasonable for either defense to record just two sacks, especially at +155.
Highest Scoring Quarter?
1st Quarter 7-2
2nd Quarter 9-4
3rd Quarter 7-2
4th Quarter 11-4
Tie ( 2 or more Quarter High) 4-1
SF Doug: I like the Tie idea here at 4-1 payout. I don't have sister, thus this element never bothered me. For those keeping score at home, I'm taking the second and fourth quarter as the ones that make me the money.
SF Steve: Taking into account my earlier comments and the scoring trends of recent Super Bowl games, the 3rd quarter would be my best recommendation for the highest scoring quarter prop. With 7-2 odds behind it, the payoff is pretty handsome too.
First Half Winner & Game Winner?
1st Half-CHICAGO/Game-INDIANAPOLIS 3-1
1st Half-INDIANAPOLIS/Game-CHICAGO 12-1
1st Half-Tie/CHICAGO-Game 18-1
1st Half-Tie/INDIANAPOLIS-Game 14-1
CHICAGO Win 1st Half & Game 9-2
INDIANAPOLIS Win 1st Half & Game 4-7
SF Doug: The Bears are halftime leader and Colts take home the trophy. I collect 3-1 odds.
SF Steve: The team that wins the Super Bowl straight up owns a 29-11 ATS first half mark. Therefore, there's basically a 75% chance of the same team result for either Chicago or Indy. However, the chances of a tie at the half seem way better than 14-1?
