Greenspan warns of U.S. recession risk

[smurphy]

The problem I see is that the afternoon rally failed. We spiked off the lows just to continue the steady decline. That could indicate a reversal. We could easily drop 10% more in coming weeks, and still be very profitable over the run DTB's talking about.

Damn shame for me. I got into this after all those great gains. I finally start learning things, and I'm afraid I just learned that we're heading downward.

We'll see. If China down again, then we'll be down too. If we do rebound, we'll probably have serious problems holding on to short gains.

 

[gardenweasel]

down 4% is a huge news story ?....

hell, howard dean's stock fell 80% after one scream........

:brows:

please don`t take my quotes out of context,shane....

 

[smurphy]

please don`t take my quotes out of context,shane....

I never do.

Sincerely,
Saul

 

[AR182]

please don`t take my quotes out of context,shane....

gw....

now you know one of our gripes with our almost adopted son.....

 

[smurphy]

Almost Dad,

Look - you know damn well the glitch with the adoption was you jooing up the terms. You wanted me to pay for the paperwork AND give you a guaranteed family annuity fee. ....You were gold digging. I was still going to give in, but it looks like those funds got washed down a gutter on Wall Street.

 

[AR182]

Almost Dad,

Look - you know damn well the glitch with the adoption was you jooing up the terms. You wanted me to pay for the paperwork AND give you a guaranteed family annuity fee. ....You were gold digging. I was still going to give in, but it looks like those funds got washed down a gutter on Wall Street.

how dare you lose my almost money !!

leave it to the irsh to mishandle my reverse annuity.

 

[THE KOD]

gw

it makes me crazy when you quote yourself like that.

not sure why

what price freedom.

 

[gardenweasel]

gw....

now you know one of our gripes with our almost adopted son.....

that`s a fine boy you have there ar1........

but seriously folks......:SIB

regarding the stock market "adjustment"...i think the smart guys believe this will turn around rather quickly...the blue chips were down across the board.....there'll probably be more selling tomorrow at least.... after that?.....my guess is that the bargain hunters will jump in by the end of the week....

but,china is scary.....you have technology knock offs flooding markets with cheap copied goods globally on the backs of the u.s. inventors and innovators....we produce the real technology...and they just knock it off.....

do they have a plan?....they are, after all, working closely with the russians militarily against the u.s. and it's allies.....working with kim and iran....

investing heavily into them is actually scary for our country ,imo.......... most investors are buying into it at the long term cost of a "technologically" productive usa who can't actually produce a damned thing now without a trip to the other side of the globe....

and that`s scary....

i don`t fool with the market much anymore....i like the safe stuff like my democratic buddies that don't have a pot to piss in anyway....

wtf do they care?....are their government cheese options going to default?

if anything, they`re gleeful that the fatcats took a bit of a hit today.....


apologies for being serious for a second...

 

[Agent 0659]

you know damn well the glitch with the adoption was you jooing up the terms.

You mean Jew-ing?

:mj07:

 

[Chadman]

do they have a plan?....they are, after all, working closely with the russians militarily against the u.s. and it's allies.....working with kim and iran....

investing heavily into them is actually scary for our country ,imo.......... most investors are buying into it at the long term cost of a "technologically" productive usa who can't actually produce a damned thing now without a trip to the other side of the globe....

and that`s scary....

i don`t fool with the market much anymore....i like the safe stuff like my democratic buddies that don't have a pot to piss in anyway....

wtf do they care?....are their government cheese options going to default?

if anything, they`re gleeful that the fatcats took a bit of a hit today.....


apologies for being serious for a second...

As long as you're being serious...I'm a democrat, and I lost plenty of money today, in the market. Getting pretty tired of your ongoing generalizations when it fits your current rant. China is a serious concern and threat, and Bush takes every opportunity to rile them up every chance he gets. Maybe he should quit borrowing so much money from them if he's going to continue to rattle their cage? Duh. Who the heck do you expect the Russians to work with? The cold war rekindling Bush administration?!? Or the Chinese, who share a common cause in stopping the ever-encroaching Bush agenda? Maybe we shouldn't be borrowing from every program and person in our country, and other countries,to fund our ongoing stupid-arse war in Iraq. Maybe we should sensibly look at that, and not continue to support it. This economy, and in part the market, has been funded in large part by borrowing ? much like the war effort ? and at some point reality takes over.

Your boy made this mess. As much as I like to kid around, I do take offense at your BS democrat piss-potting commentary. If it were a media subject...it would be the rich, elitist bunch, right? You throw around a lot of smokescreens in your winding posts, but I've found it important to call your bluffs from time to time. Still waiting to hear back on many of them...yawn.

 

[smurphy]

how dare you lose my almost money !!

leave it to the irsh to mishandle my reverse annuity.

good point. we are not known for our fiscal prowess.

 

[smurphy]

Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong are all significantly lower early Wednesday. ....If that holds up I WOULD NOT ADVISE buying anything. Stocks might seem like a bargain right now, but they probably aren't. Global markets getting mauled by bears.

 

[djv]

We better hope China does not slow to much. It could help start the next recession. For sure if it spreads to India.
DTB I hope you held some back. Believe better buying coming tomorrow morning and maybe into Wednesday.

 

[smurphy]

FACTBOX-Major sell-offs on Tokyo stock market
12:41a ET February 28, 2007 (Reuters)
TOKYO, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Tokyo's broad TOPIX index tumbled nearly 4 percent on Wednesday, on track for its biggest loss in almost three years, with investors rushing to unload everything from Sony Corp. to Softbank Corp. as part of a sell-off in markets around the world.

.....a lot of this is because Japan market closed before China yesterday. The big test will be China itself.

Singapore already down 5% though - not a good sign.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong are all significantly lower early Wednesday. ....If that holds up I WOULD NOT ADVISE buying anything. Stocks might seem like a bargain right now, but they probably aren't. Global markets getting mauled by bears.

Are you in a panic or what?

Can't say I agree with the advice Smurph. Market over-reactions are somewhat cyclical and a lot of people make a lot of money when the panic button gets pressed. Am I advising everyone to buy on 2/28/07? No, but this is a market opportunity.

BTW, have to give some props to Weasel for comment below
.

historically, doesn't the market go both up and down?....isn't it unrealistic to expect stocks to only increase in value until the end of time?...

It might not seem like a brilliant statement, but it actually represents the real risk of stock-market investing and market analysis. This is one hiccup in a long positive trend.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

"This economy, and in part the market, has been funded in large part by borrowing "

I don't understand the above statement at all Chad.

This market has been fueled by one of the longest economic expansion history--record profits.
Companies have been buying back their own stocks at record paces--not borrowing.

Basically the drop yesterday came as result as China's financial guru and greenspan almost simultaneously throwing warning based solely on things have been going too good for too long.

If we had record high PE's or companies with no earnings selling like hot cakes I could see legitimate correction but yesterdays IMHO was basically fear with no rational reason.

Granted was big hit but in looking back after drop yesterday--would say your portfolio value today is prob not much diff than in mid december of 06.

Until there is a crisis that will keep companies from earning money--I believe market will recover quickly. Two edged sword to me--I don't like losing money--but next few days to me will be like turning wife loose in mall on post christmas sales.

No one likes days like yesterday--but it's not the end of the world--consider how investors felt after these down turns--and how quickly those feelings abated in the months that followed.

--and most of these drops were due to reasons other than-- "things been to good for too long"

1 ? 9/17/01: -684.81 points, -7.13 percent

2 ? 4/14/00: -617.78, -5.66

3 ? 10/27/97: -554.26, -7.18

4 ? 8/31/98: -512.61, -6.37

5 ? 10/19/87: -508.00, -22.61

6 ? 3/12/01: -436.37, -4.10

7 ? 2/27/07: -416.02, -3.30

8 ? 7/19/02: -390.23, -4.64

9 ? 9/20/01: -382.92, -4.37

10 ? 10/12/00: -379.21, -3.63

 

[Dead Money]

Old proverb

Old proverb

Do not know what ethnic group tp attribute it to.....but "Never catch a falling sharp knife"


This could be the start of a major correction, fools rush in..

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

--I think the falling knife can be attributed to Motley Fool as I have seen them use it before--but in relation to a stock in general--under your assumption all stocks had reason to drop yesterday-

So I would assume that if you think today was/is not good day to find bargains--and "fools rush in"

--then I would have to think if you would want to avert the "falling knife" and sell--and wait till they go back up to buy--would that be -the sell low buy high theory?

 

[smurphy]

Well, China came back pretty good, which meant the US would at least start well. I predict we will not hold these gains all day though. I'm not in a panic, but I think we'll slowly shed another 5% or so over the next couple months. Lots of profits still to be taken. Just sayin.

 

[The Sponge]

Got to love Fox Noise as Olberman likes to call them. They are calling for more tax cuts are needed because of the stock market taking a hit. I wonder if all the next round of tax cuts go to the middle class Fox will still be for them? I think im down to 30 seconds with this noise station any more.