The final judgments for 2007 Change Bubble Watch Version: 3/11/2007
By Andy Glockner
ESPN.com
After a few hours of sleep, it's time to take one last look at the bubble and make some final determinations. For the sake of the broadest and fairest comparison, a few teams moved back to the bubble so we can take a better look at them against their bubble peers.
As such, there are 25 at-large locks and four teams (Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Texas Tech and Xavier) that look likely to be in, as well.
That leaves five spots to debate, and the following 12 teams realistically in the mix: Syracuse, Illinois, Purdue, Kansas State, Stanford, Arkansas, Missouri State, Old Dominion, Air Force, Akron, Appalachian State and Drexel.
Of that group, I don't see Missouri State (missed too many chances for statements), Air Force (late slide, lacking big wins), Akron (no big wins), Arkansas (under .500 SEC West) or App State (couple of bad Ls, Minter boost not enough) getting there.
That leaves seven, and this is where it gets sticky. We'll go bullet point-style:
? There is no legitimate argument for the committee to take Syracuse ahead of Drexel. None. Syracuse has three good wins all season -- Georgetown (very good), at Marquette (solid, but sixth-place in Big East) and Villanova (the league's 9-seed). They didn't play a road nonconference game. Drexel won at Syracuse, also won at Villanova (better than Cuse's home win) and won at Creighton (not G'town, but a very good win). Drexel also won 13 true road games (Cuse won five) and has an RPI that's 11 spots better (39 to 50).
Given what the committee has said in the past about teams having to prove themselves on the road and get quality wins, it would be completely hypocritical to take the Orange over the Dragons.
? That said, I don't see how you can take Drexel over Old Dominion. ODU was two places and two games ahead of Drexel in the CAA, swept the Dragons by 37 points, have a better RPI Top 50 record and went 4-2 against the other three top CAA teams vs. 1-5 for Drexel.
When it comes to intraconference comparisons, I put more weight on order of finish and then head-to-head. It's a better sample to look at 18 games against a comparable schedule than a disparate set of nonconference results.
Furthermore, if Syracuse is hanging its hat on the Georgetown win at home, ODU beat the Hoyas on the road (in their on-campus gym, no less). Syracuse's ConfRPI (accounting for the harder schedule): 33. ODU's? 36.
ODU-Syracuse is very close, but Drexel-Syracuse isn't, and ODU is ahead of Drexel, so can't you make a case that both CAA schools are ahead of the Orange?
? K-State, despite 22 wins, 10 Big 12 conference wins and a fourth-place finish, could be in trouble if the committee likes both CAA teams. They were only 2-6 against the RPI Top 50, have a worse RPI than any of the three listed and the nonconference SOS (227) is horrible.
? Purdue versus Illinois is the toughest debate around. There's almost nothing distinguishing these two teams, so we'll put them aside for a minute.
? Stanford only has 18 wins, but don't have a loss outside the RPI top 100 and had some injury issues (Lopez and Goods) that can be debated (as do K-State and Illinois). The Cardinal have some very solid wins (UCLA, USC, Wazzu, Oregon, at Fresno), and some very ugly losses (by 34 to Air Force, by 30 to Santa Clara).
Given all of that, if the committee is consistent to its word, and values road wins, nonconference scheduling and showing that you can compete with the best teams, I don't see how they omit either CAA team.
That leaves three spots for five teams, and frankly, almost any combo is fine. No one has room to complain anymore. For whatever it's worth, I'd probably take Stanford, Purdue and Syracuse. Illinois and K-State fall short.
Here's the last look at the bubble. Enjoy Selection Sunday and thanks for reading (and debating) the column all season.
The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN (OUT OF 34)
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC 6* 1 6
Big East 6* 0 5
Big Ten 3* 1 3
Big 12 3* 1 4
Pac-10 5* 0 4
SEC 4* 0 3
MVC 2* 0 1
MWC 2* 0 1
Other Locks/Should Be Ins^ 2 1 3
TOTAL 33 4 29
* -- Auto bid winner included. ^ -- Butler and Nevada are locks; Xavier should be in.
(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only.)Atlantic Coast Conference
Teams that should be in: Georgia Tech
Work left to do: Florida State, Clemson
Florida State didn't take advantage of its opportunity for a big statement win, and now might not like the statement the NCAA committee makes on Sunday. GT probably will be able to withstand the crazy loss to Wake, but we'll see. Six ACC teams are locked up at this point. Seven looks very possible. Eight might be a reach at this point with what's going on elsewhere.
Should be in:
Georgia Tech [20-11 (8-9), RPI: 52, SOS: 47] Florida State's loss was good news for the Yellow Jackets, who should remain ahead of FSU based on a head-to-head sweep, a better league finish and an 8-8 record against the RPI Top 50 (vs. 5-12 for FSU). I like GT's chances to get in, but with the bubble rapidly contracting, it wasn't the best idea in the world to leave the committee in a position to evaluate all of this and decide where the Jackets stand. The NonConf RPI is not very good, but with so many Top 50 games, I think you can get past that, especially with a young team. A nonconference win over Memphis helps offset some of that schedule weakness, which explains the middling RPI.
Work left to do:
Florida State [20-12 (8-10), RPI: 41, SOS: 18] The Noles didn't play well in a 15-point loss to North Carolina in the ACC semis and now face a very long couple of days to learn their fate. As good as Thursday was to FSU, Friday was almost as bad, with numerous teams winning and pushing toward at-larges and at least one at-large disappearing when Xavier lost in the A-10 semis. It's worth noting that Florida State has zero bad losses -- all 12 L's are inside the RPI Top 50. Then again, the Noles are only 5-12 in those games, so how many chances do you get? FSU was swept by both Clemson and Georgia Tech in the regular season, but outlasted both in the ACC tourney, which can't hurt. Wins at Duke and over Florida are very good. FSU also thrashed Providence (without Sharaud Curry), but there's not a ton beyond that in the nonconference schedule that will help. The Noles didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).
Clemson [21-10 (7-10), RPI: 44, SOS: 54] The one-point loss to Florida State probably seals the Tigers' fate as an NIT team, completing the collapse from 17-0. I have a hard time seeing the commitee taking a team that lost 10 of its past 14 games when there are so many other viable choices around, but the overall profile is not as bad as you think. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable out-of-league victories. The Tigers ended up 9-9 against the RPI Top 100, but it's the 0-5 against the Top 25 that might be the killer, because there's no truly marquee win to lean on. The comparison to Florida State right now is pretty similar, but can you take a team over another team that finished tied with it in the league and just beat it in the conference tourney?
Auto bids
Locks
Big East Conference
Work left to do: Syracuse, West Virginia
Did West Virginia show enough in a game 2OT loss to Louisville to get the committee to look past its lack of quality wins? That could be one of the top questions to be answered on Sunday after the dust settles elsewhere. Syracuse? I would guess they'll get in, but I'm not sure they deserve to. We'll see who gets left in if they do before making final judgment. If I had to guess, I'd say the Big East will get seven teams.
Work left to do:
Syracuse [22-10 (11-7), RPI: 50, SOS: 45] After much examination, Syracuse gets pushed back to the bubble. They very well could get in, but it's a lot closer (if they do) than most people think. With 10 Big East wins, the Orange very well could be dancing when the bracket's announced, but home losses to Wichita State and Drexel and a loss at MSG to OK State punctuate a nonconference schedule that lacks any real significance on the plus side. It helps that they won six of eight to close the season, and the above-.500 road record is also good. They are only 3-7, though, against the RPI Top 50.
West Virginia [21-9 (10-8), RPI: 57, SOS: 109] WVU went down valiantly in double-OT to Louisville and now faces a long wait until Sunday evening. Was this a good enough showing to prove to the commitee that the Mountaineers can play with elite teams? WVU is only 4-8 against the RPI Top 100 and the nine league wins were against UConn, Villanova (solid), St. John's, South Florida, DePaul (OK), Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and Cincinnati. Outside of beating UCLA in nonconference play, there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). It looks like it will be up to WVU whether the Big East gets seven or eight teams in. This will be a very interesting at-large case on which to make a final determination on Sunday after all the other pieces are set.
Auto bids
Locks
Big Ten Conference
Teams that should be in: Michigan State
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue
Neither Purdue nor Illinois could get the golden win, so it's wait-and-see time. It still looks pretty decent to get six bids, but the three non-locks won't make it by all that much if they do get in.
Should be in:
Michigan State [22-11 (9-9), RPI: 23, SOS: 9] The Spartans couldn't handle Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarters. Most indications are that they will be OK and make their way into the NCAAs, though. The computer profile is very good and the conference schedule was brutal, but so is the 1-8 road record. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, which won the MWC crown.
Work left to do:
Illinois [23-11 (11-8), RPI: 29, SOS: 23] The Illini didn't get it done against Wisconsin and now have to hope the OT win over Indiana was enough. The Illini finished 4-9 against the RPI Top 50. They also are 8-8 away from home and went 2-1 against Indiana this season. In nonconference play, Illinois beat Bradley and Missouri, but lost to Xavier.
Purdue [21-11 (10-8), RPI: 42, SOS: 44] Purdue fell short against Ohio State, but still may have done enough with the Iowa win on Friday. They have some solid nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul, Missouri and Oklahoma, and thrashed the Illini in the only meeting (in West Lafayette). They also pounded Michigan State in the teams' only meeting. They also have a better RPI Top 50 record than Illinois.
Locks
Big 12 Conference
Teams that should be in: Texas Tech
Work left to do: Oklahoma State, Kansas State
K-State looked competitive Saturday against Kansas, which could be important to its chances. Texas Tech has to wait and see also. I think the Red Raiders are ahead of the Wildcats, despite the Big 12 quarters result, given the three top-10 wins and the harder schedule.
Should be in:
Texas Tech [21-12 (10-8), RPI: 53, SOS: 33] Jarrius Jackson must be wondering what happened to the rest of the Red Raiders. Jackson had 28 but the rest of the team combined for only 17 points in a bad-looking loss to Kansas State. The big wins on the profile (Texas A&M twice and Kansas) could very well be enough, but Tech is one of those teams that couldn't really afford a combo of (a) getting pasted and (b) having the bubble shrink by two spots in a matter of an hour or so. We'll take a longer look when the dust settles tomorrow.
Work left to do:
Oklahoma State [21-12 (8-11), RPI: 49, SOS: 25] OK State got Kevin Durant'ed in the final minute and fell in the Big 12 semis, which basically ends the Cowboys' at-large hopes. The Cowboys ended up as the only bubble team in the nation without a true road win, which might be as big a red flag as the 6-10 league record, although to be fair, the Pokes won seven neutral-site games (like NCAA Tournament games are). There are some good nonconference performances to lean on, specifically beating Missouri State and Syracuse on neutral floors and Pitt in OK City, but those almost certainly are not enough now.
Kansas State [22-11 (11-7), RPI: 56, SOS: 91] K-State gave it a decent run against Kansas in a performance that couldn't have hurt the Wildcats' chances. I know they have the "formula" -- 20-plus wins, 10-plus BCS conference wins, fourth-place finish -- but they also have a middling RPI and didn't play much of anyone in nonconference play. Could the committee "Florida State 2006" them? They'll be one of the last couple in or out, but I think they will get there.
Locks
Pacific-10 Conference
Work left to do: Stanford
Stanford now has a long wait after allowing USC to rally and then beat the Cardinal in OT in the Pac-10 quarters. We'll need to see where they sift out when the other leagues' bubble teams end their runs.
Work left to do:
Stanford [18-12 (10-9), RPI: 63, SOS: 37] Stanford's probably going to be the last team in or out, and it will all depend on what the committee values. Stanford has nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, but it also lost badly to Air Force (now firmly on the bubble itself) and Santa Clara at home and was beaten at home by Gonzaga in OT. The Cardinal are 5-6 against the RPI Top 50 and 9-12 against the Top 100, both pretty solid numbers for a bubble team, but they also have only 18 wins and suffered several damaging losses to go with an RPI that is very weak for an at-large. The profile seems to say no, but the Cardinal may very well be the "best" team of those right on the bubble. I think they're a pretty good team, but if they are judged on their paper profile, the answer very well might be no.
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Locks
Southeastern Conference
Work left to do: Arkansas
Arkansas' surge is making Bubble Nation nervous. Can they get in even with a close loss to Florida? The Mississippi schools drop off the watch, as does Georgia.
Work left to do:
Arkansas [21-12 (10-9), RPI: 35, SOS: 15] Arkansas is now into the SEC final and has to be looked at again as an at-large. Not sure they can quite get there with a loss, but it's closer than you think. Arkansas has early nonconference wins over Southern Illinois, Marist and West Virginia. They are now 11-10 against the RPI Top 100 and are 8-9 away from home -- both of which are not bad at all for a bubble team. The RPI and SOS put them right in the mix, too.
Auto bids
Locks
Missouri Valley Conference
Work left to do: Missouri State, Bradley
What was already a long week for Missouri State got longer Friday night when losses by Nevada and Xavier appear to have drained two more bids from the at-large pool. Bradley's most likely out after a tough last-second loss to Southern Illinois. MO State's definitively ahead of the Braves, but the question is whether the Bears' profile can hold up against other teams making runs in their tournaments.
Work left to do:
Missouri State [21-10 (13-7), RPI: 36, SOS: 36] The more I look at Missouri State's overall profile, the more I think the Bears are not going to get there. I don't think they come out on top in a comparison against either CAA team (ODU or Drexel) and I don't know that there's room for two of those teams, let alone all three. It's pretty simple for the Bears right now -- they are the No. 3 team in a league that may not get three bids. There's no really good way to sugarcoat the Bears' lack of wins (1-7) in games against their best competition -- they have the big win over Wisconsin, but lost twice to Southern Illinois, lost three times to Creighton, lost to Oklahoma State (in a very impressive effort when OK State was whole) and lost at home to Big South champ Winthrop in BracketBusters. That said, they have a good number of wins in the RPI 51-100 category and are 10-5 away from home, so there's a lot of solid stuff, too. Will the committee give them any benefit of the doubt on their apparent hosing at St. Louis, when the winning SLU basket seemed to come after the buzzer?
Bradley [20-12 (11-9), RPI: 38, SOS: 20] A late tip-in by Southern Illinois appears to have tipped Bradley into the NIT. Missouri State has a better overall profile (Bradley is 1-7 against the RPI Top 50), and even the Bears are right on the edge, meaning the Braves -- who were swept by MO State and finished two games behind the Bears in the standings -- likely are done.
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Locks
Other at-large contenders
Teams that should be in: Xavier
Work left to do: Air Force, Drexel, Old Dominion, Appalachian State, Akron
The couple of bids that might have opened up with Stanford's and Air Force's slides look to have disappeared Friday with Nevada and Xavier losing in their respective semifinals.
Memphis helped Bubble Nation by winning C-USA. UNLV took the MWC, so BYU, Butler and Nevada are at-large locks. Xavier essentially is one, too.
Beyond that, here's the best approximation of the teams that have a reasonable shot at an at-large bid.
Should be in:
Xavier [24-8 (14-4), RPI: 34, SOS: 84] Xavier suffered a surprising semifinal loss to Rhode Island, but still looks very likely to be in as an at-large. X has a good profile that includes nine wins in its last 10 and victories over VCU, Villanova, Illinois and K-State in nonleague play.
Work left to do:
Air Force [22-8 (10-7), RPI: 30, SOS: 76] It seems like Air Force wants to be the epicenter of the bubble debate every year. A crippling loss to MWC tournament nemesis Wyoming leaves the Falcons with four straight L's to end the season and, incredibly, in some danger of missing the NCAAs. The RPI is getting worse, and the nonconference schedule, though littered with routs of "name" opponents, doesn't have a ton of significant heft. Rolling at Stanford and beating Texas Tech in K.C. definitely will help, but getting an at-large coming in on four straight losses may be unprecedented, especially coming from a not-quite-high-major conference. Air Force also is only 2-4 against RPI Top 50 teams. We'll need another 24-36 hours to sort out where the Falcons stand.
Drexel [22-8 (14-6), RPI: 39, SOS: 95] The Old Dominion-Drexel debate is interesting, but I think the nod has to go to ODU based on the better conference finish and head-to-head sweep. On the other hand, Drexel is one of the few teams that has done things right in nonconference play, taking on road games and winning more than its fair share of them (at Creighton, Syracuse, at Villanova, etc.). The Dragons also have 14 road/neutral wins, which is a huge number. The loss to VCU might be the killer, though, especially if the committee agrees that it is behind Old Dominion. I don't know if there's room for both as the bubble shrinks.
Old Dominion [24-8 (16-4), RPI: 40, SOS: 82] The more I look at ODU's profile, the more I believe the Monarchs should be ahead of Drexel (and Missouri State) in the pecking order. They had won 12 in a row prior to the loss to George Mason in the CAA semis. They swept Drexel by 37 combined points and finished two places (and two games) ahead of the Dragons. They also went 4-2 against the other three good CAA teams while Drexel went 1-5 in those games. The win at Georgetown continues to sparkle; shame they didn't get one or two more of the close calls against good opponents (Winthrop, Clemson, Marist and Virginia Tech). I don't know if ODU will get in, but it looks like the Monarchs should be ahead of those other two teams.
Appalachian State [22-7 (16-4), RPI: 59, SOS: 161] The shrinking of the at-large pool is not good news for a team like App State, which can't do anything other than spin its profile at this point. That said, great (and creative) job to take out an ad in an Indy paper to try to get its message across to the selection committee. If the committee really wants to dig deep and reward a good team with a good profile that's under the radar, the Mountaineers are a nice choice, with a "Donte Minter RPI" of around 40 and wins at Wichita State, at VCU, against Virginia and Vanderbilt on a neutral floor, and at Davidson since Minter became eligible. I don't know if the Mountaineers will get there, but evaluating the team they have now, it's not as crazy as some others may think.
Akron [25-7 (15-4), RPI: 68, SOS: 183] Akron suffered heartbreak at the buzzer when Miami (OH) banked in a 3 to steal the MAC title. Can the Zips get an at-large? It doesn't look likely, but man, what a tough way to go out. This is an interesting case where a terrible loss to UALR in the season-opener may have killed Akron's at-large chances, as the Zips missed on playing at Texas Tech and possible games against Marquette and Air Force had they won that game. The Zips are only 0-1 against the RPI Top 50, but then again, Nevada's not any better.
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