South Region
ATM -3 vs Memphis 134 1/2
Schedule
ATM has clearly played a tougher schedule than Memphis this season. Conf USA truly is a mid-major and no other team in that conf had a chance of playing in the NCAA tourney without winning the conf.
Prior to the tourney Memphis has only played 3 ranked teams all year. 2 of those three coming almost 4 months ago in November. You can look at Memphis's 32-3 record and be impressed, but temper it with the fact that 16 of those wins came against conf opponenets that plain and simple were just not that good.
The only ranked team Memphis beat this season was Kentucky on Nov 22nd.
ATM has played 6 ranked teams this season going 3-3 and almosts 4-2 within a basket of knocking off Texas in Austin. And several of those ranked opponents were played later in the season giving you a much better bench mark than an early season win.
Coaching
Give a very slight edge in the coaching to Calipari. Love Gillespie for ATM, he has his guys believing in him and their system. These guys never take a second off when playing D. If somebody does take a play off, he get's his butt yanked and sits the bench. But Calipari is a master at working the officials and getting make-up calls. This is huge. he will do it again this Thursday.
One a side note, have to take my hat off to Gillespie for teaching sportsmanship. When these kids get a slam or a breakaway lay-up they don't taunt. They just get back on D. That comes from the coach. More parents should look at things like that when helping their kids choose a school to play ball at. Gillespie is teaching them to be better people not thugs. Nice to see in todays day and age.
The press won't hurt ATM
Louisville tried the press, but ATM's Law is just to fast. He can break it on his own half the time. ATM takes care of the ball. I don't see the press as a factor here, and Memphis relies on their press for a fair amount of point each game.
Josh Carter Factor.
Everyone knows the face of ATM - Acie Law IV (dad looks like a crack head and/or Snoop Dog):mj07: but Josh Carter is hands down the best shooter on the team. He has been mired in a mini slump the first two games of the tourney. 1 for 6 against Penn and 1 for 2 against Louisvile from 3 point range. He is due, averageing over 50% from 3 range for the season.
Home Court
ATM fans are going to travel. (about 200 miles from College Station to San Antonio) The aggies will have a huge advantage with the crowd. The Alamodome is a horrible venue for basketball. Just to big so the noise won't be an issue, but the crowd will be decisively in favor of ATM. Add the fact that these kids get to sleep in their own beds and you have to give the edge to ATM.
Intangibles
These ATM kids didn't win a big 12 game 3 years ago. Hard to believe when you think about the skill set of Acie Law. Then along comes Gillespie. Gillespie has absolutely turned this program around. These klds believe they are the best team in the tourney and have bought into his philosophy of Defense first. As the tourney progresses it becomes more and more a half court game. This has been ATM's M.O. all year. - Advantage ATM
ATM -3
ATM u 134 1/2 Love the under here. One of my biggest plays of tourney
Ohio St -4 1/2 vs Tenn 144 1/2
This game is simple to me. If the Vols can get Ohio St to run, Oden is a non-factor. Oden CANNOT run the floor. Against Xavier, Oden's tounge was hanging out most of the game. Spent a lot of time on the bench resting. Wait till Tenn gets a hold of him. Tenn is going to try and run from start to finish. Also watch for a delay of game warning on Oden after a made Ohio St basket. He does everything he can to slow the game down. His NBA stock is dropping IMO due to his lack of stamina.
The key thing I noticed about this game was the o/u. At 144 1/2, the odds makers think the public thinks Tenn will get Ohio St in an up tempo game, if that happens, Ohio St is done.
Not sure Ohio St falls into that trap.
Only two ways to play this game:
Ohio St and Under
or
Tenn and Over.
I think Tenn +4 1/2 is the play here but I am going light on the game and waiting to pounce at half time.
If Ohio St is up at half by 6 or more I am going to play the under, if Tenn is up by 6 or more at half I am going to pound the over for the second half.
Back later with West Region
ATM -3 vs Memphis 134 1/2
Schedule
ATM has clearly played a tougher schedule than Memphis this season. Conf USA truly is a mid-major and no other team in that conf had a chance of playing in the NCAA tourney without winning the conf.
Prior to the tourney Memphis has only played 3 ranked teams all year. 2 of those three coming almost 4 months ago in November. You can look at Memphis's 32-3 record and be impressed, but temper it with the fact that 16 of those wins came against conf opponenets that plain and simple were just not that good.
The only ranked team Memphis beat this season was Kentucky on Nov 22nd.
ATM has played 6 ranked teams this season going 3-3 and almosts 4-2 within a basket of knocking off Texas in Austin. And several of those ranked opponents were played later in the season giving you a much better bench mark than an early season win.
Coaching
Give a very slight edge in the coaching to Calipari. Love Gillespie for ATM, he has his guys believing in him and their system. These guys never take a second off when playing D. If somebody does take a play off, he get's his butt yanked and sits the bench. But Calipari is a master at working the officials and getting make-up calls. This is huge. he will do it again this Thursday.
One a side note, have to take my hat off to Gillespie for teaching sportsmanship. When these kids get a slam or a breakaway lay-up they don't taunt. They just get back on D. That comes from the coach. More parents should look at things like that when helping their kids choose a school to play ball at. Gillespie is teaching them to be better people not thugs. Nice to see in todays day and age.
The press won't hurt ATM
Louisville tried the press, but ATM's Law is just to fast. He can break it on his own half the time. ATM takes care of the ball. I don't see the press as a factor here, and Memphis relies on their press for a fair amount of point each game.
Josh Carter Factor.
Everyone knows the face of ATM - Acie Law IV (dad looks like a crack head and/or Snoop Dog):mj07: but Josh Carter is hands down the best shooter on the team. He has been mired in a mini slump the first two games of the tourney. 1 for 6 against Penn and 1 for 2 against Louisvile from 3 point range. He is due, averageing over 50% from 3 range for the season.
Home Court
ATM fans are going to travel. (about 200 miles from College Station to San Antonio) The aggies will have a huge advantage with the crowd. The Alamodome is a horrible venue for basketball. Just to big so the noise won't be an issue, but the crowd will be decisively in favor of ATM. Add the fact that these kids get to sleep in their own beds and you have to give the edge to ATM.
Intangibles
These ATM kids didn't win a big 12 game 3 years ago. Hard to believe when you think about the skill set of Acie Law. Then along comes Gillespie. Gillespie has absolutely turned this program around. These klds believe they are the best team in the tourney and have bought into his philosophy of Defense first. As the tourney progresses it becomes more and more a half court game. This has been ATM's M.O. all year. - Advantage ATM
ATM -3
ATM u 134 1/2 Love the under here. One of my biggest plays of tourney
Ohio St -4 1/2 vs Tenn 144 1/2
This game is simple to me. If the Vols can get Ohio St to run, Oden is a non-factor. Oden CANNOT run the floor. Against Xavier, Oden's tounge was hanging out most of the game. Spent a lot of time on the bench resting. Wait till Tenn gets a hold of him. Tenn is going to try and run from start to finish. Also watch for a delay of game warning on Oden after a made Ohio St basket. He does everything he can to slow the game down. His NBA stock is dropping IMO due to his lack of stamina.
The key thing I noticed about this game was the o/u. At 144 1/2, the odds makers think the public thinks Tenn will get Ohio St in an up tempo game, if that happens, Ohio St is done.
Not sure Ohio St falls into that trap.
Only two ways to play this game:
Ohio St and Under
or
Tenn and Over.
I think Tenn +4 1/2 is the play here but I am going light on the game and waiting to pounce at half time.
If Ohio St is up at half by 6 or more I am going to play the under, if Tenn is up by 6 or more at half I am going to pound the over for the second half.
Back later with West Region
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