Interesting perspective here:
U.S. caught off guard by Saudi king's criticism
But some experts say remarks on Iraq are gambit to check Iran
Matthew B. Stannard
San Francisco Chronicle
Friday, March 30, 2007
King Abdullah's sharp criticism of the American presence in Iraq raised eyebrows in Washington, but experts say that the Saudi Arabian monarch's intentions probably complement, rather than conflict with, U.S. goals in the region.
Abdullah made his comments during opening ceremonies at the Arab League summit meeting in Riyadh, calling Iraq a place where "blood is spilled between brothers under an illegitimate foreign occupation and despicable sectarianism that threatens civil war."
Some analysts said the king's statements reflected deep frustration and resentment of U.S. policy in Iraq and pressure on Arab states to confront Iran.
"I think the king is really fed up with this situation. He's trying to find another way, because he cannot confront Iran (militarily) directly," said Marina Ottaway, director of the Middle East Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "I would take it at face value. This is what he said because this is what he thinks."
The White House reacted with caution. "We were a little surprised to see those remarks," Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns told a Senate hearing. "We disagree with them."
Some experts suggested Abdullah's comments also reflect his efforts to balance between competing forces: Iran, the United States, Israel and the Arab public.
"It is hard to know exactly what is motivating Saudi Arabia," said Rachel Bronson, vice president at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and author of "Thicker Than Oil: America's Uneasy Partnership with Saudi Arabia."
"Saudi Arabia is very much looking at the region, and they don't think the Americans have an answer for it. They are trying to find their own way through," Bronson said. "Nothing is driving Saudi Arabian foreign policy more than its fear of Iran."
Iran is a Persian country dominated by the Shiite branch of Islam, while Saudi Arabia and its neighbors are mainly Arab nations dominated by Sunni Islam. Iran also is a religious republic dedicated to Islamic revolution, but its neighbors are led by monarchs or presidents concerned about restive religious extremists of their own.
Iran has gained prestige since the overthrow of its traditional rival, Iraq, by tapping into popular anger over the plight of the Palestinians and Iraq, experts say. Iran has political influence over Iraq's new Shiite-dominated government and has sponsored groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas that are identified with the Palestinian cause.
"How do (the Iranians) win over the Arab world? They're Persians and they're Shia -- two huge strikes against them. So they very cleverly picked up an issue they could run with," Bronson said.
Iran's success with that gambit is clear from opinion polls in the region, said Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland. Telhami said his polling in November showed that Arabs see Iran as a lesser threat than America or Israel. "They see Iran increasingly as the enemy of my enemy," he said.
Most Arab governments have the opposite perspective, Telhami said, seeing Iran as a religious and political threat and feeling increasingly dependent on the United States as a counterweight, especially since the Iraq war.
"Before the Iraq war, they said to the U.S., 'We think this is a bad idea.' But the U.S. decided to do it ... (and) they felt obligated to support it," Telhami said. "The dilemma is, in some ways they are more dependent on the U.S. precisely because the U.S. did what they didn't want them to do."
Then there is Iran's nuclear program, which Tehran insists is for energy production, but the Bush administration contends is for producing nuclear weapons. Iran's neighbors aren't worried about a nuclear attack from Iran, Telhami said, but are concerned that the existence of an Iranian bomb might further embolden the regime politically, or prompt a U.S. or Israeli attack.
In a thinly veiled jab at both the Iranian nuclear program and Israel's presumed possession of nuclear weapons, the summit closed with a declaration calling for "freeing the region from weapons of mass destruction without double standards."
The Israel-Palestinian conflict was the other major focus of the summit, with a renewed and more unified support for the Arab League's 5-year-old land-for-peace proposal. Israel says the plan needs changes that the Arab League so far refuses to make, particularly on issues related to Palestinian refugees' right to return to former homes inside Israel.
Some analysts say the plan touted this week is a nonstarter, but others saw hints of flexibility in new Saudi moves, including permitting an Israeli reporter into Saudi Arabia, the recent summit in Mecca between leaders of the two major Palestinian parties, Fatah and Hamas, and even Abdullah's speech, much of which was critical of Arab governments' failure to solve their own problems.
"In some ways, what King Abdullah is doing in Riyadh right now is a counterthrust to the growth of Iranian interests with Hezbollah and Hamas in the Palestinian territories," said Robert Jordan, a former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia. Part of that thrust, he said, is the king's rhetorical jab at the United States.
"In the past, you would have seen King Abdullah express concerns about Iraq privately. Now you see him saying this is an illegitimate occupation," he said. "I think King Abdullah is trying to solidify his position in the Arab Muslim world and gain sufficient credibility to then urge the concessions that may be needed for negotiating the peace plan."
Those gains would help American goals in the region as well, Jordan said -- but that doesn't mean the United States should leap to publicly support Abdullah, any more than it should bristle publicly at the king's criticisms.
Rather, Jordan argued, the Bush administration would be better served by finding indirect ways to help the Saudi gambit show progress -- such as encouraging Israel to ease restrictions on Palestinians and strengthening Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
"Right now, the West and particularly the United States is approaching the status of leper with the Arab world," Jordan said. "To a great degree, anything we publicly do is the kiss of death for them. So being quiet is useful."
