Early Saturday Leans... Advice Appreciated

[Destructor D]

Got hammered again tonight... done for until football unless I get hot Saturday. Spending too much time on this crap to get my head kicked in. Losing every close call lately and when I miss, my team gets killed. Went 4-7 tonight on bases with lucky snowout in Cleveland when I had Seattle.

KC +130 - Meche vs. Maroth - KC is setup nicely to hit left handed pitching and Meche looked great against Boston in the opener. Tigers didn't look enthused playing KC Friday and not sure much will change for a cold Saturday game. Temp hitting record lows in KC Friday tonight at forecasted 19 degrees... it will still be very cold Saturday as well. Meche looked awesome vs. Boston and hoping he continues hot.

Baltimore +190 - Igawa vs. Trachsel - Small play at best, but Pinstripes aren't hitting the ball with runners on base. Just can't lay over 200 odds with unknown pitcher on the mound for Yankees. Trachsel is a journeyman and would consider Yanks RL, but see more value in Orioles.

Mets +125 Glavine vs. Smoltz - Mets have outscored their opponents 31-3 if my numbers are correct through 4 games. Smoltz is awesome, but hard to go against hottest team in baseball as sizable dog.

San Fran +130 Lowe vs. Ortiz - Not a favorable matchup SP for Giants, but Lowe got hit fairly hard in his opener and don't see any reason to pass on SF at this price. Only bad thing is Bonds will probably sit.

White Sox -130 Vazquez vs. Silva - Never been a fan of Silva and the Twins normally reak on the road. I really like Vazquez to dominate this SP matchup and Pale Hose to win.

Brewers -120 Sheets vs. Zambrano - Realize Sheets coming off unblelievable game and Zambrano coming off an uncharacteristacally weak performance, but like the Brewers coming off blowout loss with hot pitcher.


Please let me know your thoughts as nothing has been placed. Still considering switching to Yankees.

GLTA

 

[Destructor D]

Venting

Venting

Time for me to try again after another bad day in baseball... been on very bad beats this season and I normally have problems early, but nothing like this crap.

Would love to hear others thoughts on my plays as I have zero condifedence right now. Today, I went 4-9 and lost monster units taking the Yankees, Tigers, and the Padres small. However I didn't have 2-6 night like last night... all sizable favorites where going the other way making logical sense... I normally do well in baseball by playing tons of dogs and the occasional favorite. I've come out of the gate betting like a square and getting killed. I was afraid to lose and didn't see Yanks losing 2 straight at home w/ the Moose. Well, weather is cold in New York and the premodanna Yanks aren't handling it. Baseball has been my bread and butter for most years, but right now, I'm getting waxed... *Big FU to the Pinstripes whom I backed the last 2 nights... Nice job Mussina & Pettite... these guys will be average all season after the way the D-Rays and Orioles lit them up. Sure it's early, but neither Pettite or Mussina looked evern average. When I was solid, I rarely took Favorites laying huge odds... early in the season and I have already lost on huge favorites including Oswalt in his opener (homer w/ 2 outs in 9th cost me by Lidge), Pettite in opener has 11-1 career record vs. D-Rays, and lost 7-6 Friday Pinstripes with Mussina vs, Lowen tonight... got to say Yanks have 80% shot at winning...LOSE!
I have some bad weeks, but plenty of winning weeks normally. Now, I'm in a dumb fade where I took Spankees -300 on Thursday and -220 on Friday. Time to chill out when your best plays are losing due to poor SP ane when you have no rhythm/ I'll comeback for football and should place my baseball games for the ultimate fade. However, going to quit bases after this weekend. Have enough money to try to comeback, but quitting if I hit my plateau

Oswalt pitched awesome, but that wast of sperm Lidge gave up a home in the 9th with 2 outs. Mussina and Pettetite should not give up more than 2-3 runs vs. D-Rays and Orioles. Unfreakingreal.

Anyone else looking to vent... I would love to hear your thoughts. Nothing could be worse than my first 6 days of the season where I have lost 5 figures.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Time for me to try again after another bad day in baseball... been on very bad beats this season and I normally have problems early, but nothing like this crap.

Would love to hear others thoughts on my plays as I have zero condifedence right now. Today, I went 4-9 and lost monster units taking the Yankees, Tigers, and the Padres small. However I didn't have 2-6 night like last night... all sizable favorites where going the other way making logical sense... I normally do well in baseball by playing tons of dogs and the occasional favorite. I've come out of the gate betting like a square and getting killed. I was afraid to lose and didn't see Yanks losing 2 straight at home w/ the Moose. Well, weather is cold in New York and the premodanna Yanks aren't handling it. Baseball has been my bread and butter for most years, but right now, I'm getting waxed... *Big FU to the Pinstripes whom I backed the last 2 nights... Nice job Mussina & Pettite... these guys will be average all season after the way the D-Rays and Orioles lit them up. Sure it's early, but neither Pettite or Mussina looked evern average. When I was solid, I rarely took Favorites laying huge odds... early in the season and I have already lost on huge favorites including Oswalt in his opener (homer w/ 2 outs in 9th cost me by Lidge), Pettite in opener has 11-1 career record vs. D-Rays, and lost 7-6 Friday Pinstripes with Mussina vs, Lowen tonight... got to say Yanks have 80% shot at winning...LOSE!
I have some bad weeks, but plenty of winning weeks normally. Now, I'm in a dumb fade where I took Spankees -300 on Thursday and -220 on Friday. Time to chill out when your best plays are losing due to poor SP ane when you have no rhythm/ I'll comeback for football and should place my baseball games for the ultimate fade. However, going to quit bases after this weekend. Have enough money to try to comeback, but quitting if I hit my plateau

Oswalt pitched awesome, but that wast of sperm Lidge gave up a home in the 9th with 2 outs. Mussina and Pettetite should not give up more than 2-3 runs vs. D-Rays and Orioles. Unfreakingreal.

Anyone else looking to vent... I would love to hear your thoughts. Nothing could be worse than my first 6 days of the season where I have lost 5 figures.

Have to agree with everything you said. I had the Astros with Oswalt too. Also had the Yanks and Pettite last night in a big parlay as the last game needing to win. Thanks Andy and NY bullpen! 2 runs scored by TB on wild pitches in that game. Ridiculous.

The thing is these kinds of things seem to happen to me pretty much every year in bases. I've always said that this sport is the hardest for me to win at because you can look at/handicap a game practically but oftentimes the game doesn't play out practically. Example... Jason Marquis and Kyle Lohse both look Cy Young candidates the other day. Seriously?! I had the over 10, and when you look at their past history and ERAs I thought it was a pretty strong bet. Yet somehow the game was a pitcher's duel. The Reds scored some runs in the last couple of innings but that was off the bullpen. Somehow Cy Marquis managed to shut them down at home and Lohse baffled the Cubs as well.

I also have trouble because, for one reason or another, I don't pick the right dogs. You obviously have to play dogs to have success in baseball but I'll be damned if the dogs I pick almost always lose.

The last reason I have trouble is because of bullpens. It's staggering how bad they have become over the last couple of years. I said the other day that it seems like handicapping and crunching numbers is a waste of time because most games seem to come down to whether or not the bullpen can hold the lead. Oftentimes they can't.

I've always had a hard time understanding how someone can consistently be successful at baseball. No matter how good you are as a capper it seems like this sport, more than others, requires a tremendous amount of luck and "dodging bullets." That's just my opinion though.

As for your picks, I like the White Sox too. Silva is terrible. Vazquez isn't great but I think there's value in that line being at home with the better pitcher and, in my opinion, the better lineup. Only thing that worries me is Chicago's bullpen. It's pretty bad. They have two of the worst lefty relievers (Sisco and Thornton) in the game on their team. Translation -- any late-game situation where the game is close and Ozzie brings in a lefty to face a lefty hitter could prove to be disastrous. They threw the game away on Wednesday when they had a 2 run lead and almost blew it again on Thursday. Chicago may be a team that I only take for the first 5 innings.

I don't have a good feel for the other games. The only thing that kind of jumps out at me is that Russ Ortiz has REALLY struggled recently, especially last season. I actually faded him quite a bit last year with good success. I'm not a huge Derek Lowe fan either but I do think he's a better pitcher than Ortiz. I guess there are rumblings that the Giants are confident that Ortiz has somehow turned it around and has added velocity to his fastball and his command has gotten better. Maybe they're right. Still, I would be cautious backing him until he has proven he's turned it around.

It probably doesn't help much but I completely understand your frustration. I think last year I made it 3 weeks into the baseball season before I quit for good. I'm sure I won't play too long this year either. Good luck with your plays.

 

[Destructor D]

Venting

Venting

Reposted the same post from above. A little tired, pissed, and drunk. Going to bed and hopefully come back and go 7-1 in the Saturday games or something solid... another losing day & I'm done. I have money, but not money to lose gambling and the bases and hoops are tough right now. Teams you think have quit will give great efforts in hoops. Teams that should cover have been losing on 3's at the buzzard (happened to me with Sac Wednesday night & Seattle Friday night.

Players don't care about point spreads in basketball and baseball is so early that Verlander loses to De La Rose, Oswalt pitches gem against Pitt only to have Lidge cost me, Mussina loses to Loewen, and Pettite loses to Seo. Odds of these teams winning percentage would be 20-25% before the game....

Honsetly used to take 70% dogs in baseball and crush. Sure you have bad days, but a win by 2 dogs bet evenly is still a win. A split by 2 large favorites puts you in the red.

 

[Destructor D]

Finalized Plays (too bad I waited to place a couple of these games).

KC +110 for 7* - Meche looked awesome in home opener vs. Boston. Don't see any reason he can't shut down the Tigers today as well. Maroth only
9-8 in his career vs. Royals and like the way Royals lineup stacks against this lefty.
Royals 5 Tigers 3

NYY -220 for 6* - If Yankees lose today, then I'm done with this team for the year. A bunch of overpaid premadonnas. Hopefully the Pinstripes jump on the Orioles early and often. Igawa had some nice write ups and should keep the Orioles off balance as they have never seen him. Also, can the Yankees really lose their 3rd straight to teams like the Orioles and Devil Rays @ home???
NYY 7 B-more 4

Milwaukee -115 for 7* - Sheets looked awesome in home opener and Ben limits his walks unlike Zambrano who walked 5 in the opener (Sheets probably won't walk 5 until the end of May). Brewers also need to rebound after drubbing last night. Brewers 5 Cubs 2

White Sox -130 for 6* - Vazquez is far better than Silva. Twins not as tough away from the friendly Metrodome either. Thome goes deep as well. White Sox 6 Twinkies 3

Atlanta -105 for 6* - Glavine's numbers vs. his former team have been terrible at 3-9 with a 5.68 ERA. Braves might be resting some guys today, but perfer backing the nearly 40 year old Smoltz at home.
Braves 6 Mets 4

San Francisco +120 for 5* - Ortiz was terrible last season and I would expect the Giants to have Ortiz on a short leash. Lowe looked horrible in the Dodgers opener as well. Giants getting decent home price IMO so going to back them for the Home Dog Win.
Giants 6 Dodgers 5

Cincy -165 for 5* - Hate laying this much wood with a club like Cincy, but appears to be decent spot as Reds tied for first and have early season momentum on their side. Harang looked sharp in home opening win and should control a weak Pirates attack today.
Cincy 6 Pittsburgh 3

This could be the end of my baseball season if I don't start winning this afternoon. Originally liked Baltimore and Mets, but feel better backing the Braves and Yankees after doing more research.
GLTA

 

[Destructor D]

Not really good, but I'll take 4-3 and a winning day if Braves don't blow their lead against the Mets.

Tonight's games:
Houston -155 for 4* Oswalt pitched a game in Disastros opener and should get the win vs. Reyes tonight. Number a little steep, but you're getting one of the best SP's in the NL.

Toronto -110 for 4* - Blue Jays let a game get away from them last night. I like Ohka to outduel Fossom as well.

Washington +135 for 4* - Nationals send their ace, Patterson, to the mound tonight. Facing an Arizona club that isn't a whole lot better. Webb can be tough, but he's been walking more men than usual and this could cost him tonight.

Colorado +135 for 4* - Wells 1st start and I like fading the old man in this spot. Rockies know a good start when generate some excitement & I'm looking for another win tonight.

Angels -130 for 4* - Haren had a tough loss in opener and faces another tough task in beating the Angels tonight. Lackey gets his 2nd win.

Philly +100 for 4* - Phillies finally got a win last night and I'm thinking Myers makes it 2 in a row tonight.

Texas -110 for 4* - Millwood is a better pitcher than Tavarez and I haven't been really impressed with the Red Sox hitting early as Ortiz is really slumping.

GLTA:00hour

 

[Dr. Fade]

Hope you get out of your slump. I would go w/the A's tonight.

 

[IntenseOperator]

Hope you get out of your slump. I would go w/the A's tonight.

:iagree:

 

[rusty]

Maybe play less games,less units,and follow the well know handicappers for advice,and if you see something you really like,play it strong.:shrug:

 

[Rainman007]

Maybe play less games,less units,and follow the well know handicappers for advice,and if you see something you really like,play it strong.:shrug:

exactly-- just limit your plays. Put your best play or plays forward and see where that takes ya. I know baseball is by far the hardest to cap in my opinion. But streaks are far more important then the pitching matchup in my opinion. no matter whos pitching dont go against a hot team or even if a great is on the mound, dont take them if they been losing. Also throw out trends,stats, and past history out because it really depends how they been playing lately and not last year or so on. People read to much into that stuff and therefore think to much into the game causing them to lose. But goodluck im sure you will bounch back!