Byron Nelson
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EDS Byron Nelson Championship - Winning Score (72 Holes)
Winning Score
Winning Score 04/26/07 (09:00 ET)
Under 265.5 (-125)
72 hole match @ Centrebet
O'hern -110 over Leaney
1st rd @ 5D
Donald +125 over Singh
Verplank -125 over S Maruyama
EDS Byron Nelson Championship - Winning Score (72 Holes)
Winning Score
Winning Score 04/26/07 (09:00 ET)
Under 265.5 (-125)
72 hole match @ Centrebet
O'hern -110 over Leaney
1st rd @ 5D
Donald +125 over Singh
Verplank -125 over S Maruyama
PRELIMINARIES:
(A) It's fair to say the new breed, Nationwide grads, not widely knowns, still emergings, etc. have done a bit of mopping up on the main circuits this year - no more so than during the last few weeks on the PGA Tour, and in retrospect my own winners this season (Stenson, Howell and Weekley) all fit the bill. But the pendulum is due a correction, and Wachovia and The Players, with Colonial and Memorial soon after, and a few National Opens and Wentworth approaching in Europe, are a pretty good time for such a development, with a homage to Mr. Nelson not a bad spot for a peek in that direction. Not that I'm suggesting an abrupt change of course, as my choices for this week confirm.
(B) My idea of my best capping is: (1) When my top play and biggest bet goes the distance; or (2) When my last selection turns out to have been money, and the choices just behind that last selection that are left on the cutting room floor prove to have been wise decisions indeed. In that vein, there are some events in which the final cuts are tough and I have a large stable (5-6 is average) because I believe I see lots of players showing angles, information, value, scenarios, etc. that I usually embrace, and there are events with a murky quality in which a big stable is due to indecisiveness; fortunately, my money management instincts have never allowed me the luxury of a big stable when the murky quality is in the midst of a run in which I'm hopelessly out of form . . . Anywise, the big stable this week came from murkiness over where to make the cut; unfortunately, the condition of the TPC greens should probably have me exercising more restraint.
(C) Factoids I heard on thegolfchannel: (1) 7 of the last 8 Nelson winners have played their first round on the easier Cottonwood Valley course. In a similar vein, 8 of the last 10 winners in San Diego have started on the easier course at Torrey Pines North. (2) None of the last 4 Nelson winners have finished better than T-51 in fewest putts for the week. That seems unheard of in my catechism, but it speaks loudly about the excellence that gets rewarded. (3) It's been 15 years since a "Texan" (Billy Ray Brown) won the Nelson.
(D) Reflecting on a legend: Byron Nelson
http://www.star-telegram.com/333/story/77308.html
Outrights:
Anthony Kim(33/1) e.w.
- - Would have to be one of the worst results for the books in a long time, so let's get it done.
Rory Sabbatini(50/1) e.w.
- - Exceptional streaks of cocky form seem to be in his nature.
Shigeki Maruyama(80/1) e.w.
- - I'd think the Smiling Assassin would have to come crawling in to be easily dismissed this week.
Justin Leonard(100/1) e.w.
- - He's looking hard for the right boost, and I'm thinking he's found a good time and place to get a bit of it and has the equanimity to make the most of it.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=42169
Bob Estes(100/1) e.w.
- - Should have been in my staking plans for a match last Sunday based on what I had heard and seen; think he can more or less hold his own at TPC and primed to go low at Cottonwood.
J.P. Hayes(200/1) e.w.
- - Started as a hunch for further investigation, and ridle's liking him just one of several barometers thereafter that for me all pointed in the right direction.
Nick O'Hern(80/1) e.w.
- - The tools measured in stats seem right - again. Good ol' Nick O'Hern wearing the mantle of 11-in-a-row Byron Nelson sounds bizarre.
Sean O'Hair(25/1) e.w.
- - Sticking with.
Paul Stankowski(200/1) e.w.
- - Getting in position for another shot is the big hurdle, but the dismissive price tempts me in again, as I'm nicely confident that a big stumble last Sunday sets the right tone for something Sunday worthy this week if the opportunity arises again.
I'm not crazy about drawing the line here and leaving Rollins and Van Pelt on the outside looking in.
Matchups:
Rollins(-120) over Kelly (Tournament)
GL
(A) It's fair to say the new breed, Nationwide grads, not widely knowns, still emergings, etc. have done a bit of mopping up on the main circuits this year - no more so than during the last few weeks on the PGA Tour, and in retrospect my own winners this season (Stenson, Howell and Weekley) all fit the bill. But the pendulum is due a correction, and Wachovia and The Players, with Colonial and Memorial soon after, and a few National Opens and Wentworth approaching in Europe, are a pretty good time for such a development, with a homage to Mr. Nelson not a bad spot for a peek in that direction. Not that I'm suggesting an abrupt change of course, as my choices for this week confirm.
(B) My idea of my best capping is: (1) When my top play and biggest bet goes the distance; or (2) When my last selection turns out to have been money, and the choices just behind that last selection that are left on the cutting room floor prove to have been wise decisions indeed. In that vein, there are some events in which the final cuts are tough and I have a large stable (5-6 is average) because I believe I see lots of players showing angles, information, value, scenarios, etc. that I usually embrace, and there are events with a murky quality in which a big stable is due to indecisiveness; fortunately, my money management instincts have never allowed me the luxury of a big stable when the murky quality is in the midst of a run in which I'm hopelessly out of form . . . Anywise, the big stable this week came from murkiness over where to make the cut; unfortunately, the condition of the TPC greens should probably have me exercising more restraint.
(C) Factoids I heard on thegolfchannel: (1) 7 of the last 8 Nelson winners have played their first round on the easier Cottonwood Valley course. In a similar vein, 8 of the last 10 winners in San Diego have started on the easier course at Torrey Pines North. (2) None of the last 4 Nelson winners have finished better than T-51 in fewest putts for the week. That seems unheard of in my catechism, but it speaks loudly about the excellence that gets rewarded. (3) It's been 15 years since a "Texan" (Billy Ray Brown) won the Nelson.
(D) Reflecting on a legend: Byron Nelson
http://www.star-telegram.com/333/story/77308.html
Outrights:
Anthony Kim(33/1) e.w.
- - Would have to be one of the worst results for the books in a long time, so let's get it done.
Rory Sabbatini(50/1) e.w.
- - Exceptional streaks of cocky form seem to be in his nature.
Shigeki Maruyama(80/1) e.w.
- - I'd think the Smiling Assassin would have to come crawling in to be easily dismissed this week.
Justin Leonard(100/1) e.w.
- - He's looking hard for the right boost, and I'm thinking he's found a good time and place to get a bit of it and has the equanimity to make the most of it.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=42169
Bob Estes(100/1) e.w.
- - Should have been in my staking plans for a match last Sunday based on what I had heard and seen; think he can more or less hold his own at TPC and primed to go low at Cottonwood.
J.P. Hayes(200/1) e.w.
- - Started as a hunch for further investigation, and ridle's liking him just one of several barometers thereafter that for me all pointed in the right direction.
Nick O'Hern(80/1) e.w.
- - The tools measured in stats seem right - again. Good ol' Nick O'Hern wearing the mantle of 11-in-a-row Byron Nelson sounds bizarre.
Sean O'Hair(25/1) e.w.
- - Sticking with.
Paul Stankowski(200/1) e.w.
- - Getting in position for another shot is the big hurdle, but the dismissive price tempts me in again, as I'm nicely confident that a big stumble last Sunday sets the right tone for something Sunday worthy this week if the opportunity arises again.
I'm not crazy about drawing the line here and leaving Rollins and Van Pelt on the outside looking in.
Matchups:
Rollins(-120) over Kelly (Tournament)
GL
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Nice add on the o hair play.. lookin pretty good :SIB On a side note i added a little extra to that vijay over mick play. Not sure where phils head is currently. THis course is perfect for vijay then factor in Phil just arrived yesterday in the late afternoon.. well see how it goes.
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Before you know it kim and o hair will have lost all value :shrug: 2 hottest golfers on tour currently.
I should have bet these the same amount i bet my tournament bets :chairshot Oh well 2 - 0 is 2 - 0 . Suprised with Phils start through 9. Excellent ballstriking.. I need him to falter soon and kim to pick it up. As far as the leaderboard goes, it seem like all the picks that the experts had are at the top. Also a little dissapointed on how i overlooked duke :com: Also really pissed off at myself for not noticing this earlier..
Brandt plays one hole.. gets a snowman and withdraws :shrug:
Hey guys, gonna be out for the rest of the night.. but just wanted to give a heads up on some rd 2 plays. Lines arent out.. but a few that caught my eyes that might have value..
The courses seem to be pretty even. I think the extra rough at cv evened it out. You gotta expect kim to play better.. he played the par 5's 1 over.. i see him shooting like 67 tom. Anyway good luck cappers
- Jerry Kelly - wasnt sure if his hot streak would continue.. but he looks sharp
Also like rollins.. played awful the front 9 then 5 under his last 8..
The courses seem to be pretty even. I think the extra rough at cv evened it out. You gotta expect kim to play better.. he played the par 5's 1 over.. i see him shooting like 67 tom. Anyway good luck cappers
Going against a texan here, Gore played well with the exception of 2 double's think he rights the ship here and all he has to do is tie verplank and with the generous odds, have to take a shot.
Gore +.5 ov Verplank +150 3.5 units to win 5.25
Gore +.5 ov Verplank +150 3.5 units to win 5.25
Sorry i didnt get this in earlier.. :spotting: Nice round by kim.. i was a little worried owen started off 3 under. Anyway, my vijay matchup was crazy.. phil was 4 up today and now is 1 down..:scared same ole phil.. up and down.
BTW kim is the best young american on tour... by far!!! Cant wait to see him in ryder cups and majors
Stan win or lose.. i didnt bet this one. Just wanted to notfiy the tipsters here that I liked this play, (so dont count it in my record). I have like a 200 unit bankroll at the greek and had no money available at 5 dimes so i couldnt bet it :com: Looks like it is gonna cash though :shrug:
Nice call C2 .. got mad respect for ya. You , steve and dogs are as solid as it comes. Wish you posted more often. :grouphug:
Been a pretty good start to the tourney.. 4 - 0 so far.. The other plays are looking solid as well. Staying in tonight, so i decided to do some capping. Came up with this play
Ken Duke -127 over Joe Ogilve @ 5 dimes
Got a few reasons why..
Ogilve is 152nd on tour in 3rd round scoring
Duke is a better player and is coming off a great tourney last week..
Duke is 5th this week in GIR's and Ogilve is 72nd
Got a few other reasons.. but this a 1* play.. not overly confident. Dont like betting in round bets.. also dont like betting on shitty players who dont care how they finish since they are already in the money. Good Luck Cappers..
Just added Chopra -175 -.5 ( or ties = loss) over Knost
Ok heres the reason why..
You have Chopra who played great last week and would have been top 5 if not for that one poo round.. Then you have a kid who is an amatuer playin in his first pga event on the weekend. I got a feeling he shot his load yesterday. He made the cut in his hometown and he is prob celebrating.I like fading players who go low, becuz it is tough to put back to back good rounds together. A little worried about chopras driving accuracy. It also seems like Knost is on fire with the putter (3rd this week). Ill take the better player and lay the juice .. 2.5* play. Ok im done typing
Ken Duke -127 over Joe Ogilve @ 5 dimes
Got a few reasons why..
Ogilve is 152nd on tour in 3rd round scoring
Duke is a better player and is coming off a great tourney last week..
Duke is 5th this week in GIR's and Ogilve is 72nd
Got a few other reasons.. but this a 1* play.. not overly confident. Dont like betting in round bets.. also dont like betting on shitty players who dont care how they finish since they are already in the money. Good Luck Cappers..
Just added Chopra -175 -.5 ( or ties = loss) over Knost
Ok heres the reason why..
You have Chopra who played great last week and would have been top 5 if not for that one poo round.. Then you have a kid who is an amatuer playin in his first pga event on the weekend. I got a feeling he shot his load yesterday. He made the cut in his hometown and he is prob celebrating.I like fading players who go low, becuz it is tough to put back to back good rounds together. A little worried about chopras driving accuracy. It also seems like Knost is on fire with the putter (3rd this week). Ill take the better player and lay the juice .. 2.5* play. Ok im done typing
Ogilve made 4 putts in a row over 20+ feet.. but his ball striking is starting to cost him..
This is one of the best ball striking days that ive seen all year. Duke has missed 4 birdie putts inside of 10 feet on the back 9 already.. could easily be 1 or 2 shots off the lead by the time hes done. :Yep:
This is one of the best ball striking days that ive seen all year. Duke has missed 4 birdie putts inside of 10 feet on the back 9 already.. could easily be 1 or 2 shots off the lead by the time hes done. :Yep:
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6 - 0 to begin the week, 8 - 0 last 2 weeks.. :spotting:
Man i was sweating that Chopra match.. :scared I see one play that is shaping up nicely for sunday. We'll see who they match him up against. I was one round late on rollins.. figured hed play well.. also noticed Bo Van Pelt plays a lot better on the TPC course. Good Luck with your plays tipsters
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