Derby Takes

[danmurphy jr]

Post Positions & Odds should be available Wednesday

Credit to an excellent thoroughbred handicapper
Hard Spun 12/1
Curlin 6/1
Zanjero 25/1
Street Sense 9/2

Avoid: Nobiz Like Shobiz, Any Given Saturday

Longshots: Hard Spun, Zanjero, Cowtown Cat, (Cobalt Blue) - OUT

 

[danmurphy jr]

Some price possibles:

CHURCHILL DOWNS: Sunny 85'
7th #10 Tell it All -- 5/1 PLACE $4.40-3.40 @3/1 - Just missed
Forced wide for runaway horse
9th #6 Speedy Sandy-- 4/1 OUT @4/1

HOLLYWOOD PARK: Rain 60'
2nd #2 Stella Mark**6/1 WIN $18.00-4.60-2.80 @8/1
4th #6 Far Turn 12/1 OUT @35/1
5th #1 Black Seventeen 4/1 (Bad Post) WIN $7.40-4.00-2.60 @5/2
6th #1 Legendary Mud** 8/1 (Bad Post) SHOW $6.00 @6/1
8th #12 SI Chimi 12/1 PLACE $8.80-4.40 @10/1

 

[C-A-T-S]

My top 4, in no particular order, and absolutely subject to change:

Street Sense
Scat Daddy
Any Given Saturday
Circular Quay

Next few:

Zanjero
Nobiz
Cowtown


As of now I will leave Curlin off of all of my primary tickets. Again, that is subject to change. I'll be glad when all of this is over. I can barely sleep this week.

 

[danmurphy jr]

Good luck CAT, Are you near Churchill?

 

[C-A-T-S]

I'm in Frankfort, about 30 minutes from Keeneland and 45 min. to an 1 hr to CD, depending on traffic.
Good luck to you too.

Since I know you've been a Hard Spun fan from the beginning, I'm curious to hear how you took that last work. Does that fast time scare you or do you think he is just taking to the track really well? I am having a hard time with him, Curlin, and a few others just because of the company they've been keeping. I wish he would have ran in the Bluegrass, but then we probably would have had 5 horses hit the wire at the same time and still not been able to tell anything. On the other hand, I think he might have been able to steal it on the lead. I wonder if that may be what they want to do in the Derby, hence the fast work. What a puzzle!?!? Any thoughts?

 

[danmurphy jr]

I thought it was outstanding. A trainer can either time a workout by having the rider time the poles or run him. Obviously, he let him run. In a race as large as a Derby, there are 18-20 horses changing speeds, lanes etc. With Teuflesberg back in,there will be a wall of pace in front, meaning you'd better have the pace in sight. In fields this size and age group, 3YO, nobody is going to drop out of the sky
One thing is certain, there will be good prices. GLTU on Saturday.
addendum
There's a MDN-SP-WT to look at in the 4th at Churchill tomorrow named Yonegua 5/1 - Julien Leparoux in a 4.5f sprint. Well regarded and training at CD.

 

[danmurphy jr]

FYI - Need for Speed
In 49 of the last 52 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, the winner was either on the lead with an eighth of a mile to go in the race, within a length of the lead, or running second although more than a length off the leader at that point.

 

[danmurphy jr]

Try a few chalk - a few prices

BELMONT PARK: Rain 55'
2nd #5 Five Demon Bag 6/1 SHOW $3.20 @7/1
3rd #2 Indian War Dance 2/1 OUT @2/1
5th #5 Bonus Size 8/1 PLACE $6.90-3.50 @10/1
8th #5 Happy Hunting 8/1 OUT @7/2
9th #7 Triplethepleasure 8/1 OUT @5/1

CHURCHILL DOWNS: Rain 75'
1st #5 Romantic Journey 15/1 SHOW #3.00 @10/1
3rd #4 Goes 7/2 SHOW $2.60 @10/1- 2nd race not 3rd
4th #6 Yonegwa 5/1 SHOW $3.00 @5/2
6th #3 Grand Cherokee 10/1 Dead last @14/1
8th #4 Niagara Causeway 3/1 PLACE $3.20-2.60 @8/5
9th #7 Triplethepleasure 8/1- Ran Belmont
10t #4 Moo Man 9/2 WIN $14.00-5.40-3.80 @6/1

ATLANTIC CITY: Rain 70' - Noon PST
5th #9 Assert And Advantage 12/1 - OUT
6th #7 Master of Dance 4/1 SCRATCH

 

[danmurphy jr]

I'm still hooked on Hard Spun 15/1. His only weakness(turns 3yo May 10). He'll never see 15/1.
Is it suppose to rain Saturday??

 

[C-A-T-S]

I think you'll get that 15-1. I will include him on some tickets but that :57 and change work scares me a little. I think he might set the pace and tire himself out, especially with the inexperienced jockey. He is definitely talented though.

It is 50% to rain right now. I think we have the worst weathermen in the country. If it does it will be scattered and shouldn't effect the track.

 

[Mully]

Narrowed it down to 7...

Curlin 7/2
Zanjero 30-1
Street Sense 4-1
Hard Spun 15-1
Tiago 15-1
Circular Quay 8-1
Dominican 20-1

Now I just need to figure out how to play the race! I think their is GREAT VALUE in Zanjero. Asmussen getting all the attention with Curlin when I think his other entry has just as good of a chance....

 

[Pujo21]

Hard Spun--out of DANZIG is an absolute crusher for the slop. Of course need that racing luck in a stampede.

He can hang around and run down Teuffles berg or liquidity..............



Street Sense
Zanjero


Good luck all

 

[bjfinste]

Watched some prep races via youtube today (damn I love that site!).... really impressed with Tiago. This is a tough race to cap... I mean, the Derby is always tough, but this one is really tough. I did a big tri and super with friends from college for fun, but as far as really picking a winner... it's tough.

 

[Dr. Fade]

It will be a mud track. 60% chance of Tstorms from 9am - 6pm. Any insight on mudders will be appreciated. I won a dime on Go For Gin in 94' so I have to back the grandson NoBiz also like Circular Quay

 

[danmurphy jr]

A bunch for Saturday

ARLINGTON PARK: Rain 60'
2nd #3 Del Mar Storm 7/2 WIN $6.00-4.00-2.80 @2/1
3rd #1 Sole Of The City 9/2 PLACE $3.80-3.00 @5/1 By a %#& neck
9th #5 Throng 9/2 PLACE $2.80-.60 @6/5

CHURCHILL DOWNS: Rain 75'
8th #1 Pussycat Doll 2/1 PLACE $3.20-2.80 @Even
9th #9 Go Between 8/1 OUT @10/1
10t #12 Nobiz Like Shobiz/#8 Hard Spun 8/1/ PLACE $9.80-7.00 @10/1#10 Teuflesberg 30/1

CALDER RACE COURSE : Sunny 80'
7th #3 Annconda 15/1 4th @15/1

BELMONT PARK: Sunny 70'
1st #7 Al Basha 8/1 OUT @4/1

Louisiana Downs: Cloudy 80'
7th #11 Leestown Boy 8/1 OUT @7/2