Thursday May 10th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday May 10th 2007

yesterday: 7-5 +5.33
May: 50-33 +22.26
ml 25-7 +16.27
rl 6-5 +1.24
totals 12-12 +2.01
parlays 7-9 +2.74
system sides went 3-1 yesterday, now 49-26 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

lad 56% (-123)even
Cin 61 (-150)+1
Atl 71 (-194)+5 RL 56 (+109)+8
Cubs 64 (-191)-2
Col 52 (-104)+1
Det 70 (-240)-1 RL 56 (-116)+2
Nyy 66 (-270)-7 RL 53 (-135)-5
Min 52 (-117)-2
oak 56 (Kennedy-Bannister)
Laa 60 (-130)+3
Balt 61 (-156)even
Tor 59 (-142)even RL 44 (+150)+4

system totals

sd@Atl un8 68% (-105)+16 --Tschida a decent under-ump
seat@Det un9.5 63 (-120)+8 --ump Kulpa is even

Be back with plays a little later.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updating system statistics

updating system statistics

See my post yesterday for a brief description of the value indicator, including why I missed the boat on the Chisox and Royals.

System picks went an incredible 12-3 yesterday, bringing May's mark to 83-40 (67.4% winners).

I'm gonna keep posting these stats if this madness continues.

On another happy note, system totals went a decent 4-2 yesterday (I went 3-1) with the predicted unders. System totals a decent 17-10 for the month (with me stuck at 12-12...oh well...solid day yesterday put me it the PLUS).

Thursday's board not as attractive as Wednesday's, so probably limited action for me.
Will post picks when played.

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...83-40
51??...17-15?.17-15??4-1
52??...13-13?.13-13??3-4
53??...16-16?.16-16??7-3
54??...14-8?...14-8??..5-4
55??...9-12??9-12??.3-4
56??...17-4??17-4??.1-4
57??...8-6??...8-6??..8-3
58??...8-11??.8-11??3-2
59??...11-11?..11-11?...4-3
60??...12-9??12-9??.3-2
61??...10-8??10-8??.6-0
62??...10-8??10-8??.5-0
63??...13-9??13-9??.4-3
64??...7-10??7-10??.7-2
65??...10-4??10-4??.2-1
66??...9-5??...9-5??..5-0
67??...6-2??...6-2??..2-1
68??...5-4??...5-4??..1-1
69??...1-2??...1-2??..1-1
70??...2-2??...2-2??..1-0
71??...1-2??...1-2??..1-0
72??...1-1??...1-1??..1-0
73??...1-1??...1-1??..3-0
74??...2-1??...2-1??..2-0
75??...0-1??...0-1??..0-1
76
77
78??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80
totals?..45-53?..45-53??17-10
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L122-111..122-111..
overall +/-?-4.21??-4.21?.
ml W-L?.80-45??.80-45?..
ml +/-??+12.54?.+12.54?..
rl W-L??.9-10??..9-10?..
rl +/-??..-1.8???.-1.8?..
totals W-L...25-22?..25-22?..
totals +/-?.-5.2??...-5.2?..
parlays W-L..8-34??8-34?..
parlays +/-?-9.75?...-9.75?..
system sides..30-20?..30-20?..



My April record is near the bottom.
Lost 4 and change, as the final week killed me; great on the moneyline while a loser with totals and parlays.

System sides were 30-20, so they're 19-6 for May.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in K.C.

in K.C.

Updating a's@Royals number:

Kennedy@HUDSON

a's 54% (-123)-2

Kennedy has been pitching real well, but A's bats are really struggling.
No value here.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Atlanta

in Atlanta

Wells is 3-0 with a 0.82 era in 3 starts at Turner Field.
22 IP 18 H 0 HR 0 BB 17 K
A no-decision in his only other start vs Braves; mediocre outing.
Did not face Braves last year.
Had a poor 5.29 era in 9 night games in '06,
but solid 2.59 era 1.03 whip in 4 day games.
Maybe he gets it done here.
Braves .799 OPS vs lefties.

Hudson 4 days rest; only threw 87 to get through 8 innings in his last (his 1st loss, to the Dodgers).
Career 1-0 in 4 starts vs Padres, era 5.40, and 4 homers allowed in 21.2 IP.
era 1.80 whip 0.87 at home this year.
Padres .662 OPS vs righties.

Tschida is fairly decent under play, as an ump.
If Wells has a good day, and the bullpens continue to perform, as they have in this series, then this one plays under.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Florida

in Florida

Mitre isn't that great.
I think he's been lucky, so far (3.12 era).

Lowe's a career 5-2 vs Marlins, era 4.29 (nothing special) whip 1.07 (good).
Was great in his last, at Braves, W 6-3.

I think I'm 1-1 in this series, so far.

Likin' Dodgers here.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Anaheim

in Anaheim

Escobar 5-3, 3.78 vs Injuns.
He's been great last 2 (both vs chisox).
2-1 in 4 at home (3.00 era).

Sowers made 2nd career start vs Laa April 12, pitching a solid 7 innings.
He has an era of 8.66 in 4 road starts.

Indians .775 OPS vs righties.
Indians .758 OPS on the road.
Angels .680 OPS vs lefties.
Angels .784 OPS at home.

ump Carlson is fairly even...maybe a slight under-lean.

I only sorta like the Angels, here.
I think I got lucky with them yesterday.
I also only sorta like the under.
System says over 8.5 57%.
(not high enough for a "system total").

Tough call...but Sowers has been crap on the road.

Angels RL 45%(+160)+6

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Toronto

in Toronto

I expected the losing streak to reach 8 games, when this series started.
I also expect it to end tonight.

Halladay at home
26.1 IP 1.37 era 0.76 whip
2 complete games in 3 starts (he's 2-0).

Wakefield 2-2 in 4 road starts (1.78 era).
He's a career 5-3 at the Rogers Centre with a 4.51 era for his 103.2 IP.

Bosox .794 OPS vs righties
Bosox .778 OPS on the road
Jays .731 OPS vs righties
Jays .779 OPS at home

System number tells me the line (-142) is even.
My heart tells me Jays take this one.
I've had money against the Jays the past two...
...I deserve this one.
(stupid bet alert)
:nono:
:shrug:
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Colorado

in Colorado

Lowry a career 2-4 vs Rockies with a 7.50 era!
Last year at Coors he went 0-1 with a 13.50 era.
Career 1-3 in 5 at Coors with an 11.03 era.
Rockies only .675 OPS vs lefties, were .810 last year.
Rockies .767 OPS at home (.830 last year).

Cook has allowed 5 er in each of his past 2 starts.
0-1 era of 6.50 in 3 home starts.
2-6 5.28 vs Giants in 76+ innings.
Giants .712 OPS vs righties.
Giants .752 OPS on the road ('course, this is Coors).

Impossible side to call.
I like the over somewhat.
Cook is 3-3-1 on totals.
Lowry games are 3-3 on totals, with the last 3 going over.

System number is over 10 at 59%.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Detroit

in Detroit

I can't believe I'm thinking about playing a Weaver game UNDER.
:shrug:
Still, he's only 3-2 over for his 5 starts (2 unders).
He looked good through 5 innings vs the Yankees in his last, before getting smoked in the 6th.
He's 1-2 in 3 career starts vs Tigers with a 2.53 era and whip of 0.94 (pretty fine).
He's 14-24 in 44 career starts at Comerica (4.01 era).
Tigers .750 OPS vs righties.
Tigers .784 OPS at home.

Verlander made 1 beauty start vs M's last year.
5.06 era at home should improve.
5 days rest after throwing 103...he might go 8 here, if he's on.
M's .686 OPS vs righties.
M's .705 OPS on the road.

ump Kulpa is basically even. No factor.
Weaver is the Q, here, for the total.

I'm starting to have more faith in system totals (63% under, here), so I'm gonna try it.

Hopefully Verlander shuts the door.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Minny

in Minny

Cousins is a bit of an over-ump.
I don't trust Silva's numbers, anyway.

Never have trusted Contreras.

System says over 8.5 at 52%.
That's without a bonus for the umpire.

Think I'm passing on the over temptation:
Contreras 1-0 1.13 era at the Metrodome.
3.72 era vs Twins in 7 starts.
2.63 era in 4 road starts.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Silva get lit up, but he was great in his last, at home, vs the surging Bosox.

I'm a spectator side and total.
Not even a lean to offer.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

finally (I think) in Baltimore

finally (I think) in Baltimore

ump Crawford has been historically EVEN,
but is 5-1 UNDER this year, with a very high K%.

Orioles .726 OPS vs lefties.
D'Rays .706 OPS vs righties.
Not exactly high numbers.

Fossum threw a nice 7 innings vs Baltimore April 17th (W 6-4).
Fossum solid in his last, vs A's
He's a career 2-1 in 3 starts at Camden (4.95 era).
Unfortunately for the under...D'Rays pen again stinks.

Cabrera great in his last, vs Indians, and has been pretty solid in 5 at home (2-1 3.55).
A career 3-0 in 7 starts vs D'Rays, era 2.79.

The way yesterday's game played out, I can't pass trying this one under.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

give to me Santana tune

give to me Santana tune

PLAYS

system sides

Braves -194 1.94/1

other sides

dodgers -123 1.23/1
Reds -150 1.5/1
Tigers -1.5 -116 0.58/0.5
Nyy -1.5 -135 0.69/0.51
Blue Jays -142 1.42/1

totals

sd@Atl un8 -105 0.68/0.65
sf@Col ov10 -105 0.63/0.6
m's@Det un9.5 -120 0.84/0.7
t'bay@O's un9 -105 0.63/0.6

2-teamer
--Braves ml
--Tigers ml
+105
1/1.05

2-teamer
--Nyy ml
--Angels ml
+136
0.63/0.87

2-teamer
--Tigers ml
--Nyy ml
-113 (gotta be lucky)
1.13/1


A fairly heavy day overall, considering my first glance at the board didn't impress.
Closer inspection revealed some angles, so hopefully it will be worth it.

See you tomorrow.

GL

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

GL today buddy :toast:

 

[~Buckshot~]

Thank you thank you for the reply yesterday, clears it up a bit, although I only minored in math so still trying to grasp it all...:142smilie. Best of luck today and always, sincerely appreciate your info.