Tuesday May 15th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tuesday May 15th 2007

yesterday: 3-1 +2.35
May: 80-59 +29.35
ml 43-17 +22.37
rl 8-8 -0.52
totals 15-21 -4.36
parlays 14-13 +11.86
system sides still 57-28 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

atl 73% (-185)+8 RL 58 (-113)+4
mil 54 (-103)+3
fla 55 (+100)+5
Mets 65 (-140)+6 RL 50 (+154)+10
sf 51 (+110)+3
Col 52 (-105)even
cin 53 (+107)+4
Lad 58 (-146)-2
Clev 53 (-140)-6 min 47 (+142)+5
balt 51 (-116)-3
Bost 60 (-129)+3
Tb 61 (-141)+2
nyy 62 (-145)+2
Seat 51 (-118)-4
Oak 63 (-197)-4

system totals

fla@Pitt ov8.5 65% (-120)+10 --ump O'Nora is even
cubs@Mets un8.5 72 (-105)+2 --ump Kellogg is even
stl@Lad un7.5 65 (-105)+13 --ump Montague is even; 7-1 under in '07
kc@A's un9 76 (-115)+22 --ump Scott a slight under-ump


Missed the Mets total by a run; otherwise a perfect day, yesterday.
Even my temptations on the Cards and Nats woulda paid off?if I'd been so bold.
Sorry if I talked anybody into the Orioles; Jays games are tough calls, right now.
System picks went 6-4 yesterday, now 121-69 for May (63.6% winners).
System totals went 1-1, now 23-16 for May (58.9% winners).

Only the system sides really interest me, today. Bosox should get a run for their money, Yanks not playing great lately, and D'Rays with Shields too expensive (though the runline is tempting; McCarthy may come back to earth, here). Lotsa fairly bad starters going today. Hard to say how Litsch does, for the Jays, but his numbers in double-A were nothing to write home about (era over 5). Hernandez's first start back off DL should be short?maybe 6?but M's pen has done well, lately; Escobar smokin', too, these days?tough call in that game. A's should get to Bannister, and Royals crappy pen, but price is WAY too high considering A's troubles scoring; Royals winning some these days.

For the system sides:
Braves number (73) is actually fairly conservative, as Nats playing good ball lately, and Williams was great in his last start; I still think Braves take this one.
Mets line looks affordable (-140) as Maine has been dynamite (rating of 85 coming into this game). Zambrano comes in with a generous current rating of 79, mostly due to his solid work in years past. Hard not to like the Mets here. The under may also be worth a shot in this game, but only 1 of Zambrano's 8 starts have totalled 8 or less?the last 7 have gone over 8; Maine's last 4 starts have totalled 8 or less. Side looks smarter.

Be back to post my plays in a bit.
In the meantime, let me know what you think of the system.

Can't hurt to ask?sigh?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Brewers good pen was rocked yesterday, and Vargas, though rock-solid, hasn't made it past 6 innings this season.

I'm tempted by the Brewers--partly as an Eaton fade, though he's 2-0 vs Brewers--but Philly enjoying a nice homestand...scoring plenty despite the absence of Howard.

ump Vanover is a slight over-lean.

System call is under at 51%...simply because of the high 10.

over and Brewers are passing temptations

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Can't seem to pull the trigger on the Marlins, either; they've stopped hitting...in Pittsburgh, at least.

Edge Marlins bats (though not in this series).
Edge Marlins starter.
Edge Pirates bullpen.

Both Maholm and Mitre have been good vs opponent, in limited work.

Lean Marlins, but tough call the way this series is going.

Think I'll pass on the system's recommended over, too; Mitre was great for 8 innings in his last, vs Dodgers (3 hits, no runs), and Maholm capable of shutdown ball (April 24th, at home to Astros, CG shutout).

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Morris 6-5, 3.27 in 11 at Minute Maid.
Has been pretty solid this year (club's won 5 of 7, era 3.11), but some iffy numbers with 19 walks vs 19 K, and a .287 opponent's batting average.

Williams at 1-5, 5.10 is unappealing, though he did get the W in a 3-2 win at Reds in his last.
8-6, 3.86 vs Giants.
0-2, 5.06 at home this year.

Giants .738 OPS vs righties.
Astros .714 OPS vs righties.

Neither team excelling, right now.

Tough call.
Small lean Giants.

System call is over 9 at 55%.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hirsh's last 3 have brought him back to earth (era's rose from 3.16 to 4.10 over that time), but he's been solid at home in 3: 1-1, 3.60 era, .211 OBA.
Never faced the D'Backs.
D'Backs OPS .712 vs righties.

Johnson keeps striking people out, for his 4 starts so far (28 in 24 IP), but he hasn't had a good, shut-down game yet; might get it here.
14-7, 2.35 vs Rockies, with 213 K in 172.2 IP.
5-4, 3.86 at Coors, with 80 K in 67.2 IP.
Rockies only .698 OPS vs lefties (was .807 last year).

System call is Rockies at 52% due to a small edge at the plate, and a healthy home-field advantage.
I have a feeling the D'Backs might prevail, here.

System call is over 9.5 at 61%.

Think I'll spectate, here.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Bit of an over-ump in West going in San Diego.

Might be worth a try, just because of that, at 7.5.

System call is 57% UNDER the 7.5, with no equalizer for the umpire (Petco always gets an under-bonus).
Should be a 50-50 proposition, as Wells might have a rare, decent game (Reds .715 OPS vs lefties); same goes for Harang (Padres only .671 OPS vs righties...less at home).

Slight lean to Reds.
Another ugly one on the board, really.
:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Cards may be getting their shit together, and are tempting, here, at +136.
Lowe 0-3, 6.19 vs Cards in 3.

Still, I think a 58% call on the Dodgers seems accurate.

cards 42% (+136)-1

No value to be found, there.

Both clubs low OPS vs righties:
Cards .657
Dodgers .689

Total is very low, at 7.5, but system says 65% on the UNDER.
(65% is about my minimum to call it a 'system total').
Only 2 of Lowe's 8 starts have totalled 7 or less.
2.40 era at home, but .271 OBA.
4 of Wainwright's 7 starts have totalled 7 or less.
He's been better last 2, after 3 shaky starts in a row.

Under is tempting, but 7.5 is garbage.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I don't know if there's value here, or not...

D'Rays W at 61%.

RL 45% (+150)+5

Not much, for a 45%'er, but something about this call appeals to me.

Try it small.

D'Rays OPS only .699 vs righties, .714 at home.
Rangers OPS a surprisingly low .712 vs righties.

Shields has been dynamite for 4.
McCarthy has been dynamite, but short, for 2.

System call is even on the 8.5...was a slight call on under a 9, but it's dropped to 8.5.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hard not to play the Yankees, against a lefty.
Yankees OPS .724 vs lefties...

...wait a minute...

I know it was at .800 just recently (a week ago MAX),
and it was at .830 to end April,
so the Yanks # vs lefties has WAY dropped lately.

Still too early in Danks career to give this former 1st-rounder much credit.
Was great in his last, at Twins.
Never faced the Yanks 'til now.

Mussina 15-15, 4.63 vs the Chisox.

Yanks are tempting, but a 62% call on them seems fair, here.
No value at the current -150 range.

System call is under 9.5 at 51%.
Not much of a call.

I'm a spectator.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

laa@M's should be an interesting game, just maybe not one to risk coin on.

System call is 62% on an UNDER the 7.5.

Current price at -120 gives a +7 value indicator.

Not enough for me.

I'm looking for more value with the totals, than the sides, as I don't trust the system numbers on the totals as much as on the sides.

Still...23-16 for May is somewhat encouraging.

We'll see how they do today (3 unders and an over).
I hope well, despite no actual $$$ risk.

(unless I try the A's game under...)
:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$igh...

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$igh...

PLAYS

system sides

braves -185 3.7/2
Mets -140 2.8/2

other sides

D'Rays -1.5 +150 0.5/0.75

totals

kc@A's un9 -120 0.6/0.5

2-teamer
--nyy ml
--A's ml
+147
0.68/1


Light day, again. I suppose I'll be pulling for system sides for the other games.
Go stats!

Go Braves!!! Go Mets!!!

Rock n' Roll!

:SIB

 

[hatch]

PLAYS

In the meantime, let me know what you think of the system.

Can't hurt to ask?sigh?
Reply With Quote

:SIB

Since you're not getting much feedback, I thought I'd tell you there's at least one lurker hanging around who is avidly reading your stuff Extrapolator.

Thanks for posting, it's great stuff!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Great to hear it, man.

GL to us tonight!

:00hour
:weed:
:00hour :00hour :00hour
:weed:
:SIB


I just finished Wednesday's games; using totally up to date numbers.
Have two 70's and two high 60's on board.
Both 70's are pretty expensive, at openers (Clev,Tor).
High 60's are, too...Lad worth a look (other is Oak).

Still working on totals.
Looks like there will be system plays.

:SIB