Wednesday May 16th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday May 16th 2007

yesterday: 2-2 -0.8
May: 82-61 +28.55
ml 45-18 +22.07
rl 8-9 -1.02
totals 15-21 -4.36
parlays 14-13 +11.86
system sides 1-1 yesterday, now 58-29 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

atl 59% (-133)+1
fla 53 (+107)+4
Phil 59 (-128)+2
cubs 54 (+114)+7
sf 51 (+103)+1
ariz 56 (-111)+3
Sd 62 (-164)-1
Lad 67 (-148)+7 RL 51 (+148)+10
Clev 71 (-175)+7 RL 57 (+123)+12
Bost 62 (-130)+5 RL 48 (+147)+7
Tor 69 (-158)+7 RL 54 (+131)+10
tex 60 (-110)+7
nyy 51 (-115)-3 (was for Wang-Contreras)
laa 59 (-132)+2
Oak 65 (-200)-2

system totals

cubs@Mets un8.5 64% (-110)+11 --ump Fairchild is even
sf@Hou ov9 80 (-110)+27 --ump Welke is a good UNDER-ump (hurts here)
cin@Sd un6.5 73 (-110)+20 --ump Rapuano is even
stl@Lad un8.5 85 (-115)+31 --ump Winters is a slight under-ump
det@Bost ov10.5 68 (-125)+12 --ump Meals is a slight UNDER-ump (again hurts)
laa@Seat un8 65 (-110)+12 --ump Schrieber is a good OVER-ump (another killer)
kc@Oak un9 76 (-120)+21 --ump Emmel is a slight OVER-ump (WTF?!?!)

Bummer on some of these umps; several don't help recommended system totals.
Mat take a shot at a few; my totals doing much worse in May (15-21) than system totals (24-18).

Total bummer on that Mets game, yesterday, for me; 65%'ers seem cursed in May (now 2-5) while other high 60's are doing fine (66-69 at 12-5 for 70.5% winners); A's today are at a 65%, so maybe the Royals are gonna win today.
70's+ are also doing just fine in May?thank-you?at 16-1 (94% winners); Indians in that category, today.

System sides now 130-74 in May overall (63.7% winners).

Be back to post plays once procrastination is postponed.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Maroth an imperfect 0-4, 8.02 era, at Fenway.
With a .329 OBA this year, he's due to lose one (club 7-0 in his starts).
Bosox .855 OPS vs lefties.

Tavarez 2-0, 5.11 in limited vs Tigers.
0-2, 9.31 era in 2 home starts this year.
Club has lost 4 of his 6 starts.
Tigers .760 OPS vs righties.

Gotta agree with the system call for an OVER the 10.5
Ump sucks in Meals...he's a bit of an under-lean.

Still...starters could be lit up here.

Lean to Bosox.

62% sounds reasonable (I dropped it 1%, from it's original 63%, because of the loss Tuesday).

I can now get Bosox -127.

62% (-127)+6

At the original 63% it would have been a system play (+7 at 63).
As it stands I don't know what to do...
...seem to be grabbing a piece of everything, so far...hope system numbers bust the lines today...

:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[bjfinste]

What are you showing for the Milwaukee/Phillies total? I'm seeing a strong under play, but curious what your numbers came up with. Baltimore/Toronto looks like a strong under as well.

Also had a much different projected outcome on the Astros total (Welke is obviously a factor in that), but hard to go against your results this year.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I was considering the under in Philly, though not a system call.
System call is actually OVER 9 at 52%.
Not much to go by.
Got a piece of Philly, so stayed away.

in Toronto, system call is over 9.5 at 58%.
Jays OPS .857 vs lefties.
I've got a big play on Jays, so didn't really look at this total.

In Houston, Albers has been pounded in 2 of his past 3, and in his only one at home; he comes in with a rating of 74, here (Astros BP a 72).
Lowry comes in with a rating 81 (sf BP a 71), but gets a bonus for his perfect 3-0, 1.17 vs Astros; that bonus is what gives the Giants the 51% call.
Astros .808 OPS vs lefties...pretty high...will be higher at home.
The umpire and Lowry's dominance vs got me off any thoughts of over, here.

Thanks for gettin' involved...
...keeps the blood in me brain flowin'!

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright Jack keep your hands off of my stack

I'm alright Jack keep your hands off of my stack

PLAYS

system sides

Dodgers -147 2.94/2
Indians -175 3.5/2
Blue Jays -158 3.16/2
rangers -110 1.32/1.2

other sides

braves -133 0.66/0.5
marlins +105 1/1.05
Phillies -128 1.28/1
cubs +115 1/1.15
giants +103 0.5/0.52
d'backs -113 0.79/0.7
Padres -169 3.38/2
Bosox -127 1/0.79
angels -132 1/0.76

totals

cin@Sd un6.5 +100 0.75/0.75
stl@Lad un8.5 -115 1.15/1


Last time I went mental like this was Saturday; I ended up going 15-7 for a +11.93.
Hoping to at least survive this assault on the board.

I'd add some parlays, but almost risking my total profit for the month, here.
I dunno?
Gonna see what kinda lines I can get on some combos.
May or may not return.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

recommended team totals

recommended team totals

Below are some team totals, and the number I get in relation to Pitcher's vs hitters.

reds un3 -115 -20
Padres un3.5 -115 -15
cards un4 -115 -21
twins un4 -115 -12
Bosox ov5.5 +15 (tigers are +5, here)
Jays ov5 +120 +9
rangers ov4.5 -130 +9
M's un4 -160 (way too pricey) -13
kc un4.5 -155 (same) -12

Reds under and Cards under get the biggest numbers.
Tempted to parlay the 2, for better than +200, but already into the Padres big (so an under 3 PROBABLY gives me a winner), AND the Dodgers big...also got a piece of stl@Lad under...therefore I need cards under 4 runs as it is.

Still...the -115's are better than the -160-170's being offered on the moneylines.

Reds the most tempting; I currently got Peavy rated a 91; rarely do starters ever get into the 90's, and they'd better be throwing shutout ball to stay there (Peavy a 90 for previous start).

Arroyo comes in with a healthy rating of 83.

That's why I try this crazy 6.5 under.
After not hitting Fatso Wells and Harang yesterday, I dunno about a reversal here.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

added:

3-teamer
--Dodgers ml
--Indians ml
--Blue Jays ml
+342
0.5/1.71


I think that will be a wrap.
I could really use these three.
Hopin' for a killer day with system numbers generally.
Senators closing out their series gives me a nice series play there, so Go Sens!
See you tomorrow.

GL


:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

YESSSSSSSaito!!!

Got away with murder, today.
Hit my top 4 plays.

Glad I took advantage today because tomorrow's board looks pretty ugly.

Be back to post Thursday's numbers shortly.

Rock and Roll, BabEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!

:00hour

:weed:

:SIB