Thursday May 17th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday May 17th 2007

yesterday: 9-5 +8.35
May: 91-66 +36.9
ml 52-22 +29.11
rl 8-9 -1.02
totals 16-22 -4.76
parlays 15-13 +13.57
system sides 3-1 yesterday, now 61-30 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

atl 64% (James-Simontacchi)
Mets 57 (-129)even
mil 53 (-119)-2
Col 51 (-104)even
fla 57 (-104)+6
Hou 60 (-191)-6 sf 40 (+180)+4 sf +1.5 55 (-125)-1
min 54 (-126)-2
nyy 59 (-115)+5
Oak 54 (-175)-10 kc 46 (+172)+9 kc +1.5 62 (-125)+6
Bost 66 (Durbin-Schilling)
Tb 61 (-150)+1
Seat 54 (-123)-2

system totals

kc@Oak un9 66% (+105)+17 --ump slight under-ump (Iassogna)
laa@Seat un7.5 67 (+100)+17 --more of an over-ump in McLelland (always low K%)


Ended up going 7-4 for my assault on the moneyline yesterday; hit the 4 big ones, bagging a 71%'er on the way (70+ now 17-1 for May, as in 94% winners!); Giants were a push for me, as I went contra Albers. Hit a 3-teamer. Went 1-1 on totals, missing the loser by a half-run.

System totals went 3-2 yesterday, missing both losers by half a run. Now 27-20 for May.
System picks 9-5 yesterday. Now 139-79 for May (63.7% winners).

Probably a very light day for me?don't really see anything that I like.
Be back to post if I try anything.

GL

 

[bjfinste]

Appreciated your input yesterday. Somehow managed to hit my unders (still stunned the Milwaukee under hit after being 5-0 in the second). For what it's worth, I'm seeing the same thing on the A's under tomorrow.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Nice call on those unders.

For tomorrow at Shea:

The team called up Jason Vargas to start Thursday against the Cubs. The 24-year-old lefty is 2-3 with a 5.30 ERA at Triple-A New Orleans, but is 0-4 with an ERA over 9.00 in his last four outings.

Vargas has pitched in parts of the last two seasons for Florida. Last year, he was in 12 games, including five starts, going 1-2 with a 7.33 ERA. He joined the Mets last November in the trade that sent Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom to the Marlins. Vargas and lefty Adam Bostick were sent to New York.

------------------------------------------
Doesn't sound too promising.
I wonder about the over for this game.

Cubs .753 OPS vs lefties.
Mets .770 OPS vs righties.
Eric Cooper looks pretty even, as an umpire.
Guzman has a 7.04 era on the road this year.

9.5 is a bummer, for Shea.
Guzman's numbers have been a little better during day games.

System call is actually UNDER 9.5 at 54%.

Tough call, what with the Cubs not hitting Sosa, yesterday; hurts with Derek Lee out.

Still...this Vargas sounds like a bum, and the Mets should be able to hit Guzman.

:shrug:
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Nolasco-Armas total sounds like an over, too, although Nolasco was great in 1 beauty start vs Pirates for a 5-0 win last year (he went 7.1, allowed 4 hits), at home.

ump Hoye is a bit of an over-ump.
System call is OVER 9 at 56% (without an ump bonus).

Armas 3-12, 5.98 era vs Marlins in 17 starts.

Pirates only .665 OPS vs righties.
Marlins .763 OPS vs righties.

I dunno...

Maybe the side (fish) is better than the total, here.
Cheaper at the moment, too.

Best I can get is now -109.
marlins 57 (-109)+4

Less value than the earlier line (no shit).

Wonder if that's at least 10% return on investment...

57 x .9174... (for -109) = 52.293
-43 x 1 (for losses) .... = -43
.....................................----------------
.......................................9.29% ROI

Not a great play.
Not at 57%.
Hard to like backing a guy with a 6.06 era, anyways.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

what I thought was love that must have been lust

what I thought was love that must have been lust

PLAYS

marlins -109 0.54/0.5
yankees -115 1.15/1
royals +175 0.6/1.05
D'Rays -150 2.25/1.5

sf@Hou un8 -112 0.56/0.5
min@Clev un8.5 -124 0.62/0.5
nyy@Cws un10 -114 0.57/0.5
kc@A's un9 +105 0.5/0.52


Certainly nothing worth parlaying today, so this will be it.
My personal totals aren't doing so hot; would love a 3-1 here.
Bad ump going (Guccione) for the Santana game, so I'm thinking that one might be the toughest; starters in Oakland ain't too hot, either.
Tempted by the Giants, but Astros kinda hot, and money vs Oswalt is usually lost money.
Elarton's only problem?same for much of his career?has been the long ball; look at his career stats vs A's and that trend continues (6 HR in 27.1 IP); A's really not hitting the long ball right now, especially at home; Royals worth a definate shot, here; Braden has been roughed up his last couple of starts, both at home; Royals won yesterday so why not (notice I missed another 65?...every other 60+ seems to be doing fine?maybe I'll post the stats?)
Have a feeling I should have taken today off?oh, well?give me D'Rays, Yankees and at least a couple of totals and I'll be thrilled.

May you rock.

GL


:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...139-79
51??...17-15?.17-15??9-6
52??...13-13?.13-13??7-7
53??...16-16?.16-16??10-5
54??...14-8?...14-8??..7-7
55??...9-12??9-12??.7-7
56??...17-4??17-4??.5-7
57??...8-6??...8-6??..10-5
58??...8-11??.8-11??4-3
59??...11-11?.11-11?...8-6
60??...12-9??12-9??.7-4
61??...10-8??10-8??.11-1
62??...10-8??10-8??.6-1
63??...13-9??13-9??.6-4
64??...7-10??7-10??.9-4
65??...10-4??10-4??.2-6
66??...9-5??...9-5??..6-1
67??...6-2??...6-2??..4-2
68??...5-4??...5-4??..2-1
69??...1-2??...1-2??..2-1
70??...2-2??...2-2??..3-0
71??...1-2??...1-2??..3-0
72??...1-1??...1-1??..1-0
73??...1-1??...1-1??..4-0
74??...2-1??...2-1??..3-0
75??...0-1??...0-1??..1-1
76
77
78??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80??...0-0--------0-0??..1-0
totals?..45-53?..45-53??27-20
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L122-111..122-111..
overall +/-?-4.21??-4.21?.
ml W-L?.80-45??.80-45?..
ml +/-??+12.54?.+12.54?..
rl W-L??.9-10??..9-10?..
rl +/-??..-1.8???.-1.8?..
totals W-L...25-22?..25-22?..
totals +/-?.-5.2??...-5.2?..
parlays W-L..8-34??8-34?..
parlays +/-?-9.75?...-9.75?..
system sides..30-20?..30-20?..


"System sides" (I need a better name for that...system sides are the numbers I post every day...maybe "system picks" is a better title for the (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+).

Let me know what you think.

I was saying...system PICKS were 30-20 in April, now 61-30; that means a 31-10 so far in May (75.6% winners).

The numbers above don't lie...this system's pickin' winners!

27-20 on posted totals for May is even more encouraging for me (so why am I 16-22 for May...frig:com: ); if this system could pick total winners, too, then maybe I'd have a publishable piece of prognosticating poetry.

Need a good story to go along with the theory, and the system. Fortunately, the season is still young.

Part of the reason that I wish I had more action in here, from other members; would give me some feedback as to how accurate you think the numbers appear, whether or not my set-up is understandable, what you think of my (apparent) strategy, or any other such things.

If you take the time to read any of my analysis, or other ramblings, then maybe you have time to chime in with some critique.

Intense of chilled out. I'll take either.

Peace.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

just lookin' for some action

just lookin' for some action

12345

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

damn yankees

damn yankees

oh well,

nice to hit the underdog...I don't play enough dogs.

one that I was thinking to put more $$$ on, but wanting today to be calm, after yesterday.

I've done Friday's games; board looks much better tomorrow.

I'll probably have numbers up 10 or 11 pm est.
My games should be done by then.

70+, for May, are 17-1 (94.4% winners).
I've got one 72%er on board for tomorrow.

Already got it played.

Looks to be a winner.

A few other sweeties mixed in there, offering some nice opportunities.

Hoping to head into the weekend with some extra coin.

See you in a few hours.

(unless I get some action, here...c'mon feel the noise!)

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

YESSSS!!!! Delmon Young, Babeeee!!!
:00hour
Saves my day...2-2 moneyline and 3-1 on totals.
Small profit instead of small loss.

Shoulda tried the Giants; at least hit the under.

Will post Friday's numbers shortly.

Yeah Baby!
:00hour

:weed:

:SIB