Message 4 Raymond
- Thread starter MR. LOCK
- Start date
raymond says
raymond says
BEGINNING THURSDAY JUNE 7
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
Things went from bad to ugly when these teams squared off in Wrigley last weekend. In addition to dropping the series (Cubs only 2-3, -$220 vs. Atlanta in ?07), we saw fights on the Chicago bench, coupled with sloppy, inept play. These teams appear to be evenly matched statistically (Cubs 4.13 ERA, .266 BA . . Braves 4.07, .269), but until the visitor stops giving away games (3-7, -$615 last 10 days), they don?t stand a chance against a quality team like this one, especially in righty vs. righty matchups (Cubs -$805, Braves +$695 in that situation). BEST BET: Braves when righty meets righty.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 8
Tampa Bay at Florida (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Marlins dispatched this team without much difficulty when they met at Tropicana Field in May (3-0, +$330). But the Devil Rays aren?t as bad as they?ve been in the past. The hitters are better than average, and despite a disappointing road record they?ve made money as visitors against southpaws (+$360). They?ll get a shot as fat underdogs against Dontrelle Willis this weekend. The lefty ace has had success in his appearances, but his ERA is still rather inflated after 13 starts (4.81) so we?ll try our luck on the road team. BEST BET: Devil Rays vs. Willis.
Colorado at Baltimore (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rockies are showing steady improvement (7-3, +$380 last 10 days) and though still in last place, they are within easy striking distance of the top slot in the competitive NL West. They?ve parlayed an 11-10 road record against righthanders into a nice profit (+$560) and will catch some appealing prices here at Camden Yards, taking on an Orioles team that averages just 4.0 runs per game vs. righties. But stay away from Jeremy Guthrie, who has sparkled in seven starts since joining the rotation (1.68 ERA). BEST BET: Rockies when righty meets righty unless opposed by Guthrie.
N.Y. Mets at Detroit (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Excellent matchup between quality clubs as the Mets invade Comerica to take on the hard hitting Tigers (.286 team ERA, with 5.8 runs per game, tops in the majors). The setting is good for New York, given their outstanding record on the road in 2007 (18-7, +$1025), coupled with Detroit?s recent pitching woes (4.99 ERA among starters last 10 days). With the top offense in the NL (.276 BA) and the 2nd lowest team ERA (3.36), the road team is poised to take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Mets in all games.
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Yankees (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
This series would have been written off as a mismatch when the season began, but the Pirates look like a live underdog throughout. The beleaguered Yankees have lost a fortune here in the Bronx this year (-$1215) while Pittsburgh has made money outside of PNC Park (+$495). The most promising matchup is with lefthander Tom Gorzelanny, who checks in with a 2.53 ERA in his 12 starts. Ian Snell is also performing well (2.94), but we don?t expect to see him on the mound this weekend. BEST BET: Gorzelanny.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Tribe took 2 out of 3 when they met the Reds at Jacobs Field last month, and since that time they?ve played as well as any team in the majors (+$1155 overall). They average 6.1 runs per game vs. righthanders, and they catch a Cincinnati team that hasn?t been getting many quality starts from the rotation (4.79 ERA last 10 days). To make matters worse, the Reds are a pitiful 10-18 (-$1420) at Great American Ballpark this year. They?ll be hard pressed to salvage a single victory vs. this AL powerhouse. BEST BET: Indians in all games.
Houston at Chicago W. Sox (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The White Sox are struggling to score runs (.233 team BA, lowest in baseball), but they?ve managed to hover around the .500 mark. The Astros, on the other hand, are simply terrible (23-33, -$1445). Chicago has a chance to fatten up if they can come close to matching their 2007 record in inter-league play (14-4, +$790), but prices are going to be quite high, and none of the starters in their rotation has been outstanding lately (5.45 ERA last 10). BEST BET: None.
Philadelphia at Kansas City (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Despite some starters with respectable numbers, the Phillies have the highest team ERA in the NL, in large part because the bullpen is killing them (4.78 ERA this year). They have a chance to get healthy against arguably the worst team in the AL, a KC club that is only 9-21 (-$900) at Kaufman Stadium this year They?ll need to watch out for those KC lefthanders (Phillies only 6-14, -$880 vs. southpaws), but their outstanding run production vs. righties (5.7 per game) should net them some wins. But stay away from Gil Meche, who has looked terrific since joining the Royals as a free agent (+$245, 3.00). BEST BET: Phillies vs. all righthanders except Meche.
L.A. Angels at St. Louis (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Angels were one of the only AL teams that lost money vs. the NL in 2006 (only 7-11, -$560), but they spanked the Dodgers in a three game sweep, and come into Busch with a healthy lead in the AL West. The Cards have looked a bit better, but they remain one of the worst pitching teams in MLB (4.64 team ERA). We don?t love the Angels on the road, but we?d like to see Joe Saunders get another turn (2.22 in four starts), given the Cardinals? anemic 6-11 (-$745, with 3.1 runs per game) mark vs lefties. BEST BET: Saunders.
Washington at Minnesota (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Surprisingly, the Nationals are making money in 2007 (+$435) and they?d probably be doing better if they weren?t beset with so many key pitching injuries (Bergmann, Patterson, Hill). The good news is that Mike Bacsik has stepped up with three solid starts (2.29 ERA) and could provide some outstanding underdog value vs. a Minnesota team that is only averaging 3.9 runs per game against lefthanders (+$520). BEST BET: Bacsik.
Milwaukee at Texas (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
We rode the Brewers hard in April and it paid off handsomely. But we?ve backed off in recent weeks as the team flounders (4-6, -$300 last 10 days with only 3.5 runs per game). They remain comfortably atop the under-performing NL Central for now, and Arlington might be a good spot to solidify their position (Rangers 20-37, -$1450 overall, with a .249 team BA and a 5.27 team ERA), but we?re more inclined to sit this one out for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Boston at Arizona (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Another quality inter-league matchup that could spell trouble for the home team. The Bosox went 16-2 vs. the NL last year (+$1450), and grabbed 2 out of 3 from a tough Atlanta team earlier this season. They are 15-5 (+$1190) vs. righthanders outside of Fenway Park and they?ll be sending a pair of profitable righthanders to the mound who have led the team to wins in 17 of their 20 starts so far (+$1215). The Diamondbacks are making money, but they average just 4.3 runs per game. BEST BET: Beckett/Matsuzaka.
Seattle at San Diego (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
We saw some good games when these teams went at it at Safeco Field in an earlier meeting in which the Padres came away with 2 out of 3 (+$130). You have to like the Padres? chances here in pitcher friendly Petco Park, with the best mound corps in baseball at their disposal (2.94 team ERA). But it?s going to be expense to play on the SD aces, so why not take a shot with the visitor vs. David Wells. Seattle is 9-3 (+$870 with 5.7 runs per game) vs. lefties and the veteran?s numbers are inflated. BEST BET: Mariners vs. D. Wells.
Oakland at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Athletics took 2 out of 3 when these teams squared off at McAfee Coliseum in May, and we see another opportunity for them to do at least that well here at ATT Park. They annihilated former teammate Barry Zito in a lopsided 15-3 pounding and they?ll get another shot at him in this series. Oakland does its best work against lefthanders (13-8, +$410 with 5.3 runs per game). And given SF?s losing record vs. righthanders in this ballpark (-$375) it?s hard to pass up Danny Haren (+$305, 1.64 ERA in 12 starts) and Chad Gaudin (+$640, 2.41 in 12 starts), both of whom are likely to see action here. BEST BET: Haren/Gaudin/Athletics vs. Zito.
Toronto at L.A. Dodgers (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
We?ve had quite a bit of success handicapping the Dodgers this season, but we?re a bit leery of the Blue Jays, who are getting healthier and seem to be getting better. So avoid LA when they send lefthanders to the mound (Toronto 12-5, +$780 vs. southpaws) and focus instead on Brad Penny (+$715, 2.37 ERA) and Derek Lowe (+$150. 3.32 ERA), the undisputed aces of a very formidable rotation (Blue Jays only 15-24, -$1120 against righthanders in 2007) who are both expected to take a turn at Chavez Ravine this weekend. BEST BET: Penny/Lowe.
raymond says
BEGINNING THURSDAY JUNE 7
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta (4) 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th
Things went from bad to ugly when these teams squared off in Wrigley last weekend. In addition to dropping the series (Cubs only 2-3, -$220 vs. Atlanta in ?07), we saw fights on the Chicago bench, coupled with sloppy, inept play. These teams appear to be evenly matched statistically (Cubs 4.13 ERA, .266 BA . . Braves 4.07, .269), but until the visitor stops giving away games (3-7, -$615 last 10 days), they don?t stand a chance against a quality team like this one, especially in righty vs. righty matchups (Cubs -$805, Braves +$695 in that situation). BEST BET: Braves when righty meets righty.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 8
Tampa Bay at Florida (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Marlins dispatched this team without much difficulty when they met at Tropicana Field in May (3-0, +$330). But the Devil Rays aren?t as bad as they?ve been in the past. The hitters are better than average, and despite a disappointing road record they?ve made money as visitors against southpaws (+$360). They?ll get a shot as fat underdogs against Dontrelle Willis this weekend. The lefty ace has had success in his appearances, but his ERA is still rather inflated after 13 starts (4.81) so we?ll try our luck on the road team. BEST BET: Devil Rays vs. Willis.
Colorado at Baltimore (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Rockies are showing steady improvement (7-3, +$380 last 10 days) and though still in last place, they are within easy striking distance of the top slot in the competitive NL West. They?ve parlayed an 11-10 road record against righthanders into a nice profit (+$560) and will catch some appealing prices here at Camden Yards, taking on an Orioles team that averages just 4.0 runs per game vs. righties. But stay away from Jeremy Guthrie, who has sparkled in seven starts since joining the rotation (1.68 ERA). BEST BET: Rockies when righty meets righty unless opposed by Guthrie.
N.Y. Mets at Detroit (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Excellent matchup between quality clubs as the Mets invade Comerica to take on the hard hitting Tigers (.286 team ERA, with 5.8 runs per game, tops in the majors). The setting is good for New York, given their outstanding record on the road in 2007 (18-7, +$1025), coupled with Detroit?s recent pitching woes (4.99 ERA among starters last 10 days). With the top offense in the NL (.276 BA) and the 2nd lowest team ERA (3.36), the road team is poised to take at least 2 out of 3. BEST BET: Mets in all games.
Pittsburgh at N.Y. Yankees (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
This series would have been written off as a mismatch when the season began, but the Pirates look like a live underdog throughout. The beleaguered Yankees have lost a fortune here in the Bronx this year (-$1215) while Pittsburgh has made money outside of PNC Park (+$495). The most promising matchup is with lefthander Tom Gorzelanny, who checks in with a 2.53 ERA in his 12 starts. Ian Snell is also performing well (2.94), but we don?t expect to see him on the mound this weekend. BEST BET: Gorzelanny.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Tribe took 2 out of 3 when they met the Reds at Jacobs Field last month, and since that time they?ve played as well as any team in the majors (+$1155 overall). They average 6.1 runs per game vs. righthanders, and they catch a Cincinnati team that hasn?t been getting many quality starts from the rotation (4.79 ERA last 10 days). To make matters worse, the Reds are a pitiful 10-18 (-$1420) at Great American Ballpark this year. They?ll be hard pressed to salvage a single victory vs. this AL powerhouse. BEST BET: Indians in all games.
Houston at Chicago W. Sox (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The White Sox are struggling to score runs (.233 team BA, lowest in baseball), but they?ve managed to hover around the .500 mark. The Astros, on the other hand, are simply terrible (23-33, -$1445). Chicago has a chance to fatten up if they can come close to matching their 2007 record in inter-league play (14-4, +$790), but prices are going to be quite high, and none of the starters in their rotation has been outstanding lately (5.45 ERA last 10). BEST BET: None.
Philadelphia at Kansas City (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Despite some starters with respectable numbers, the Phillies have the highest team ERA in the NL, in large part because the bullpen is killing them (4.78 ERA this year). They have a chance to get healthy against arguably the worst team in the AL, a KC club that is only 9-21 (-$900) at Kaufman Stadium this year They?ll need to watch out for those KC lefthanders (Phillies only 6-14, -$880 vs. southpaws), but their outstanding run production vs. righties (5.7 per game) should net them some wins. But stay away from Gil Meche, who has looked terrific since joining the Royals as a free agent (+$245, 3.00). BEST BET: Phillies vs. all righthanders except Meche.
L.A. Angels at St. Louis (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Angels were one of the only AL teams that lost money vs. the NL in 2006 (only 7-11, -$560), but they spanked the Dodgers in a three game sweep, and come into Busch with a healthy lead in the AL West. The Cards have looked a bit better, but they remain one of the worst pitching teams in MLB (4.64 team ERA). We don?t love the Angels on the road, but we?d like to see Joe Saunders get another turn (2.22 in four starts), given the Cardinals? anemic 6-11 (-$745, with 3.1 runs per game) mark vs lefties. BEST BET: Saunders.
Washington at Minnesota (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Surprisingly, the Nationals are making money in 2007 (+$435) and they?d probably be doing better if they weren?t beset with so many key pitching injuries (Bergmann, Patterson, Hill). The good news is that Mike Bacsik has stepped up with three solid starts (2.29 ERA) and could provide some outstanding underdog value vs. a Minnesota team that is only averaging 3.9 runs per game against lefthanders (+$520). BEST BET: Bacsik.
Milwaukee at Texas (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
We rode the Brewers hard in April and it paid off handsomely. But we?ve backed off in recent weeks as the team flounders (4-6, -$300 last 10 days with only 3.5 runs per game). They remain comfortably atop the under-performing NL Central for now, and Arlington might be a good spot to solidify their position (Rangers 20-37, -$1450 overall, with a .249 team BA and a 5.27 team ERA), but we?re more inclined to sit this one out for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Boston at Arizona (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
Another quality inter-league matchup that could spell trouble for the home team. The Bosox went 16-2 vs. the NL last year (+$1450), and grabbed 2 out of 3 from a tough Atlanta team earlier this season. They are 15-5 (+$1190) vs. righthanders outside of Fenway Park and they?ll be sending a pair of profitable righthanders to the mound who have led the team to wins in 17 of their 20 starts so far (+$1215). The Diamondbacks are making money, but they average just 4.3 runs per game. BEST BET: Beckett/Matsuzaka.
Seattle at San Diego (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
We saw some good games when these teams went at it at Safeco Field in an earlier meeting in which the Padres came away with 2 out of 3 (+$130). You have to like the Padres? chances here in pitcher friendly Petco Park, with the best mound corps in baseball at their disposal (2.94 team ERA). But it?s going to be expense to play on the SD aces, so why not take a shot with the visitor vs. David Wells. Seattle is 9-3 (+$870 with 5.7 runs per game) vs. lefties and the veteran?s numbers are inflated. BEST BET: Mariners vs. D. Wells.
Oakland at San Francisco (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
The Athletics took 2 out of 3 when these teams squared off at McAfee Coliseum in May, and we see another opportunity for them to do at least that well here at ATT Park. They annihilated former teammate Barry Zito in a lopsided 15-3 pounding and they?ll get another shot at him in this series. Oakland does its best work against lefthanders (13-8, +$410 with 5.3 runs per game). And given SF?s losing record vs. righthanders in this ballpark (-$375) it?s hard to pass up Danny Haren (+$305, 1.64 ERA in 12 starts) and Chad Gaudin (+$640, 2.41 in 12 starts), both of whom are likely to see action here. BEST BET: Haren/Gaudin/Athletics vs. Zito.
Toronto at L.A. Dodgers (3) 8th, 9th, 10th
We?ve had quite a bit of success handicapping the Dodgers this season, but we?re a bit leery of the Blue Jays, who are getting healthier and seem to be getting better. So avoid LA when they send lefthanders to the mound (Toronto 12-5, +$780 vs. southpaws) and focus instead on Brad Penny (+$715, 2.37 ERA) and Derek Lowe (+$150. 3.32 ERA), the undisputed aces of a very formidable rotation (Blue Jays only 15-24, -$1120 against righthanders in 2007) who are both expected to take a turn at Chavez Ravine this weekend. BEST BET: Penny/Lowe.
