Monday June 11th

EXTRAPOLATER

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Monday June 11th 2007

yesterday: 6-8 -7.46
June: 73-69 -9.78
ml 32-24 -6.27
rl 4-6 -7.07
totals 33-23 +14.93
parlays 4-16 -11.37
system picks 0-2 yesterday; now 96-53 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-0 yesterday; 28-14 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mets 66% (-111)+13 RL 50 (+151)+10
Phil 56 (-121)+1 RL 42 (+160)+3
Sf 61 (-144)+1
Clev 63 (-150)+3 RL 48 (+130)+4
Cubs 73 (-170)+10 RL 59 (+105)+10

system totals

tor@Sf un8.5 67% (-105)+15
seat@Clev ov10.5 66 (-110)+13


I don't know if I should just be playing totals right now, or what (went 3-0 on tot's yesterday). I had a pathetic day on the moneyline, as both big plays (Orioles and Padres) didn't come through. Got creamed trying Indians,Angels,Mets,and Giants. Pathetic. System sides went 4-11 for a 3-day total of 16-29 (35.5% winners). Hendrix Bless Interleague! System totals are somehow keeping me from oblivion. Follow me on those, right now, but Fade Away on my interleague sides.

Today's board has 2 system picks (Mets and Cubs). Cubs have the huge edge in this one, both at the plate and on the mound. Mets may start hitting lefties again, but will have to do so at Dodger Stadium. Dodgers bats looked pathetic in the Jays series and now have to face a currently outstanding Orlando Hernandez. Number may look kind of high, at 66%, but Mets have a huge edge at the plate (OPS vs L .844 while Lad OPS vs R is .689); I'll also take Orlando, the way he's pitching, over Wolf right now, the way he's pitching. Bullpens are pretty close to even. The 3 other favorites show limited value at present lines.

I'm not crazy about either posted total, but may take a shot(s) considering how system totals are performing. Waiting for umpire information is probably a smarter move, as neither % is over 70. 65% is minimum cut-off point, after all, to qualify as a system total.

Oh well?
?I guess my goal this month is to get even.

Be back later to post picks.
GL
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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Trying to decide how to play these 2...need to see if they're equivalent or what-have-you...

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
mets 66% (-112)+13
-112 is 89.2 cents on the dollar
66 x .892 = 58.872
34 x -1.....= -34
-------------------------------
.................24.872%

Stupendous.

--------------------------------------------------------------
Cubs 73% (-185)+8
Cubs 73% (-170)+10

at -185
-185 is 54 cents on the dollar
73 x .54 = 39.42
27 x -1...= -27
----------------------------
...............12.42%

No comparison at this line. How about at -170...

-170 is 58.8 cents on the dollar
73 x .588 = 42.924
27 x -1.....= -27
-------------------------------
..................15.924%

Still no comparison.
Much better with the Mets.

Risk is 7 points higher (34% to 27%)
or
7/27%=
a 25% increase in risk.

ROI is 8.948 points higher
or
8.948/15.924%=
56% higher ROI for the Mets,
with only a 25% increase in risk.

Mets are the better play, at either line.

Zambrano is never a lock, this season, but 73%, with a +10 Value Indicator, is too good an opportunity to miss out on.

Trying both.

:SIB
 
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EXTRAPOLATER

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another possible over...

another possible over...

in Philly

chisox@Philly over 10 59% (+110)+11

Might be worth a shot.

Eaton won't toss a shutout and Phillies can hit pretty much anybody; Vazquez has been hot and cold last few.

I grabbed a piece of Philly on a parlay (whoops:com: ).

Over might be too much to ask for.

:SIB
 

IE

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not mucho working this year so far for me at all but

one of the strongest situations ive seen this year regarding the
over in the chi sox/phil game

9.5-110 @ wsex
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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Hmmm...thanks for the input, IE.
Maybe I should look at it again...I think Eaton is a dud, after all. Not at all sure how Vazquez will perform; Meche kept Phillies to 4 a couple days ago (mind you with super-under Doug Eddings behind home plate). I was thinking about the Phillies over 5.5, now at +140 (wow!), so considering my dislike of Eaton, this one should be a play for me.

I just noticed that I can get 9.5 (over) at +102.
At 9.5 the system call is OVER at 64%.
64% (+102)+14

Looks like it's in play, for me.

Hope we hit it!
:toast:
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ROI assessment of a parlay I'm about to make...

mets ml
Cubs ml
+202

66% x 73% = 48% chance to hit

48 x 2.02 = 96.96
52 x -1.....= -52
-----------------------------
................44.96%

Wow.

At 48%, a +202 line gives a
+14 Value Indicator

ROI result is deadly.

I need these 2 to turn a profit today, anyways...
...only 1 and I'm going down...

:shrug: :com: :scared

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB
 
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EXTRAPOLATER

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Tuesday looks promsing

Tuesday looks promsing

(remember that I'm apparently fade material right now, when reading the following)
---------------------------------------------------------
I've 'capped Tuesday's games.
Looks good.
Lots of mismatches; just need decent lines.
2 games at 70% or higher (Tigers and Phillies).
4 other games at 64% or higher.
10 of 15 currently at 60% or higher (a few might change slightly)

I could use a pair of hits today and go into tomorrow's (likely) beautiful board with a full head of steam.

Go Cubbies!!!:00hour
Go Mets!!!:00hour

:weed:
:SIB
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

system picks

mets -111 4.44/4
Cubs -170 5.1/3

totals

Dodgers under 3.5 +100 0.5/0.5
cws@Phil ov9.5 +102 1/1.02
tor@Sf un8.5 -105 0.84/0.8
seat@Clev ov10.5 -110 0.78/0.72

2-teamer (likely homos)
--Phillies ml
--Indians ml
+204
0.49/1

2-teamer (jeez, do I need these parlay)
--mets ml
--Cubs ml
+202
0.99/2


My day will be JUST FINE if Mets and Cubs win tonight. If I miss both then I'll be thinking about taking a break; chit?give me AT LEAST one, as tomorrow's board looks very promising. Gimme both and tomorrow will be a Fiesta. Viva la Cubs! Viva la Mets!

Catch ya on the flipside.

:SIB
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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the month is still young

the month is still young

silence is golden

come what may

GL to you(s)

:SIB
 
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Jaxx

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Good luck man. Always check your plays to see if they line up with my capping. You will turn it.
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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Thanks Ricknjax, I appreciate it.
----------------------------------------------------

Phew...that was too close.

I'll take it...thank-you Cubbies!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

Mets with the quick 2, in the first, is a good sign.

Go Mets!!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

:weed:
:SIB
 
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