Monday June 18th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Monday June 18th 2007

yesterday: 5-0 +13.83
June: 111-106 +1.03
ml 51-37 +5.36
rl 9-11 -7.84
totals 43-29 +18.29
parlays 8-29 -14.78

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mil 66% (-128)+9 RL 51 (+170)+13
bost 63 (-130)+6
det 59 (-145)-1
phil 60 (-119)+5
Mets 63 (-151)+2
fla 57 (+118)+11
Stl 74 (-160)+12 RL 61 (+132)+17
Ariz 72 (-175)+8 RL 59 (+112)+11
Oak 56 (-170)-7 cin 44 (+163)+5
Laa 68 (-191)+2 RL 54 (+115)+7

system totals

bost@Atl un9 67% (-135)+9
min@Mets un8.5 75 (-107)+23


I'M BACK!
Wow?did I need a day like yesterday to rejuvenate my spirits. This is a much more enjoyable endeavour if you at least win SOME of the time. June has been very shaky for system sides, after posting near 60% winners for April and May. System sides did go 12-3 yesterday (assuming the Yanks hang on to their 6-1 lead in the 7th); a few more days like that and system numbers may become respectable for June. Time will surely tell.

Today's board appears to have a number of good options. I especially like the Cards, appearing like they should be easy winners here as they've trashed Perez before, including his very last start (3 IP, 10 hits, 6 ER, 0 K), while Wainwright just totally dominated KC in his last start (8 IP, 1 H, 0 ER); Wainwright has looked much better for about his past 5 starts now. I also think the Brewers will give the kid a good chance to win his Mldebut; Brew-Crew have hit Lowry before (he's 0-1 in 2 vs Brewers with an era of 7.84). Brewers looking a bit better last couple of series, in general, though, of course, not as strong as they started the campaign. Bosox, Phillies, Marlins, and D'Backs are also begging for my money, but haven't got it yet (just on Cards and Brewers, so far).

I don't know about these 2 posted totals (system totals 1-2 yesterday; now 45-23 for June). Bosox can really club lefties, but they haven't looked so hot at the plate in their road interleague games; really hurts not using Ortiz. Schilling probably does his part, but James can be either good or bad, leaving a big question mark. Still, a total of 9 at Turner Field is pretty good, especially with someone the caliber of Schilling starting; Bosox pen still strong; Braves pen has improved from a poor start to the year.
The other total is iffy, for me, as I'm not a big Silva fan. Maine & co. could very well hold the Twinkies to 2-4 here, but Mets have a pretty potent offense?used to have a pretty potent offense?I guess I just feel that Silva can be had by a good-hitting team. Mets not hitting righties (OPS .735) nearly as well as they hit lefties (OPS .817); another reason to consider an under. Both pens solid for this one. 8.5 seems fair; the rating is so high (75%) as the Twins bats appear as a -14 vs Mets pitcher's here, while the Mets appear as a -6 vs Twins pitching; add in an adjustment for a pitcher's park (Shea) and the system really likes the under, here. I need to assess Silva a little further before putting under-money on him.

Will post plays once finalized.
GL and
HENDRIX BLESS US, EVERYONE!!!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Turner

at Turner

Schilling is 7-3 with a 2.64 era in 11 starts at Turner.
3 of his past 5 starts have been shaky, but 2 of those were against the surging Yankees, and the other was his last, at home to the suddenly hot-hitting Rockies.
Braves .774 OPS vs righties.

James has never faced the Bosox before.
He's only 1-3 at home, in 5, but with a 3.08 era (opponent's still batting .290 vs him at Turner, .287 overall).
James had 3 good starts in a row before his last, where he got pounded at Minnesota.
Bosox .827 OPS vs lefties, but a lot of that comes with the help of the Green Monster in Fenway, and also with the full services of David Ortiz.

I think I want a piece of the Bosox.
Nothing huge, the way the Braves have come back to life seemingly with the help of Chipper's return, but a piece.

Passing on the under as Schilling will surrender 2or3, if not4, I would think; I'll need more than that from the Bosox if I expect a win, so as a Sox player I'm best to forego the under.
Hopefully the Sox bats can keep some of their scoring momentum from yesterday going, though it may not be easy at Turner.

63% sounds a few points high, to me, but I think I've still gotta try a piece.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Chicago

in Chicago

Johnson was great in his rookie year, last season.
Word is that he was stellar in 3 rehab starts, posting a 1.76 era in 15.1 IP at single and double-A; that's a far cry from throwing in the big leagues, but Johnson facing a very sorry team here in the Pale Hose.
Chisox OPS vs R .684 (was .841 last year!)
Chisox OPS at home .691 (was .827 last year).

Contreras is 2-3 in 5 home starts with an era of 5.86.
He's been mostly bad to mediocre for his past 6 starts.
White Sox pen is garbage, this year.
Marlins OPS vs R .740.

Marlins aren't playing the best ball right now, the past week or two, but I think they might steal this one, here.
System surely likes it; it's not like it's a cheesy 52 or 53% call...I get Marlins at a whopping 57% for this one (57's are 6-2 for June--75% winners--and 34-19 in 2007--64% winners; one number that's outperforming it's quota).

Greatly as a fade Chisox play, but partly a belief that Johnson can chuck 5 or 6 decent innings (he's slated for a max. 90-pitch count).
Trying a piece.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

X - maybe I missed it while reading over your two posts but do you have any info on this Gallardo kid?
Thanks, it's much appreciated!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

on Gallardo

on Gallardo

This was the best I could find for Gallardo:

Jun 14 The Brewers are expected to recall Gallardo from Triple-A Nashville and start him against San Francisco on Monday.
Advice: Gallardo will be added to the roster once Chris Capuano is placed on the 15-day disabled list with a groin injury. The 21-year-old Gallardo has not pitched in a major league game yet, but is one of the Brewers top pitching prospects. The right-hander is 8-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 13 starts for Triple-A Nashville and leads all of Minor League Baseball with 110 strikeouts.

I'm basically basing my rating for him on this information.
I've started his rating out at an above-average level, particularly because he'll have a very good bullpen working behind him.
1st start is tough to gauge, but he IS a very highly rated pitching prospect; he was mentioned back in a pre-season article in Baseball Weekly.
Lowry has stunk in limited vs Brewers, too.

BUT, the real difference between these squads will come at the plate:
Giants OPS vs R .703.
Brewers OPS vs L .795.

I think that the Brewers are back to playing, at the very least, decent ball again. Giants look really bad, lately, and not just in this last series at Fenway, but before that too.

Brewers also get a sizeable home-field advantage; if you check out their win-loss record from the past several years, you'll find that they perform much better at home. D'Rays and Rockies (if memory serves) are the only 2 other teams that receive such a hefty home-field advantage (comes to about 6%, for these 3 teams).

I've played the Brewers for 2 units, so far; tough to risk too much on Gallardo's 1st start.
May try 1 unit more...not sure.
I'm into 7 sides, for Monday, as it is.

:SIB

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Thanks for the info X...really appreciate the work you do. Keep it up and Gl today! (I'm gonna tail on this kid and hope he brings us some cash!)

I agree with you about the Brewers, they are starting to play much better and I have noticed SF has been struggling. I don't bet on SF pretty much at all because they are such a shaky team.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some team totals I might push my luck with

some team totals I might push my luck with

(with relative system number; minus for under, etc.)

Braves under 4.5 -140 (-10)
phillies over 4.5 -120 (+7)
tigers over 5 -125 (+8)
twins under 4 -135 (-14)
royals under 4.5 -140 (-13)
D'Backs over 5.5 -130 (+11)
astros under 3 -105 (-14)maybe pass, here, the way the Astros are rolling

I'm still trying to convert these numbers into some kind of coherent %.
I thought about using 4.5 as a base (with certain ballpark adjustments--raising or lowering the base) and then simply count each minus as a 2% swing by simply adding it to 50.

For example, the royals under 4.5--one of the more tempting ones up there, save for that -140 BS.
4.5 is ny base so I simply add
50 + (-13) for 63% UNDER the 4.5.
In this case there'd be limited value because of the line:
63% (-140)+4 V.I.

Braves under 4.5 would actually need to get a bonus, as they're playing this in a pitcher's park. They also might not need the bottom of the 9th (but I sure HOPE they do!).
A standard home number, at Turner, might be a 4 (more likely between 4 and 4.5, but that's not possible).
Say 4, for these purposes.
At 4.5 I'd give maybe a 5% bonus, to the under, as my ballpark modifier.
I then have the original MINUS (for unders) 10 and a bonus of 5 for 15.
50+15=65% chance for the Braves under 4.5.
65% (-140 again)+6

It's a hell of a lot of F-ing around.
Right now I'm just looking for a big plus or big minus and then assessing things from there.

Hendrix Bless You if you followed me there.

I think my only temptation of those posted above is the Tigers over 5. Every other game (save the Angels Lackey 3 nonsense) I've got on the moneyline. Come to think of it, Tigers moneyline would probably be safe...I just think that the 'cap of Tigers 59% is reasonable; Chico has had a few decent games lately, Nats playing good ball last 2 or 3 weeks, and Nats get a decent home-field advantage (comes to about 4%; i.e. it would be Tigers 61% without a minus for the Nat's being home; LOOKS like only 2%, but remember that 61-39 is an edge of 22% while 59-41 is an edge of 18%...that's where the 4% comes in).

Bless You Again

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

(Boy...give the guy a few winners and see how he carries on!)

:shrug:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[LIGHT-IT-UP]

X...I think the homework you do and your posting is truly outstanding!! I always compare my picks and notes to yours from before I even started posting on this site. You can't always win them all like we would like to and your percentages indicate that we should but it doesn't happen...
Keep up the fantastic work you do for me and everyone else I'm sure appreciates it....this ones for you boss:Yep: :00x1 :11jackson :weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

on the system picks

on the system picks

Hendrix Bless You, LIGHT-IT-UP!
:toast:
:weed:
Since you got on board, and sent some nice kudos my way, things have turned around for me.
Two winning days in a row is thrilling for me, the way this month has been. I think I can smell a 3rd.
June has not been kind, but I think I can at least survive the rest of this interleague schedule.
----------------------------------------------------------------

I haven't been updating these stats because for a few days there either were no system picks or they were losing.

But, going back and checking since my last update of them, I see they've gone 6-3 over the past 5 days. That's not too shabby, at all. Maybe I'll start listing my plays like I was before, with system picks clearly shown. They are the ones I'm counting on most, after all.

System picks today include the Brewers, Marlins, Cards and D'Backs.
I'm on all four.
Bosox are real close and Phillies are kinda close.
I'm on them, too.
The only one not close, that I'm on, is the Mets, for a unit.
A +2 value indicator at 63% isn't the worst place I could put my money, but the value just ain't there so it's a small play. Twins win wouldn't surprise me too much, but I'll take Maine over Silva, anyday, and I would think that the Mets gotta be team-meeting-ready the way they've stopped performing the past couple of weeks; maybe a homestand will rejuvenate them.

Jeez...I should finish this off and get to bed early for a change...been a long one.
From 9:30 pm on, though (since I saw yesterday's scores), I've been in a remarkable mood.

Probably shows the way I'm carrying on.
Oh well.
Can't contain myself, tonight.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

Brewers -128 3.2/2.5
marlins +118 1/1.18
Cardinals -160 6.4/4
D'Backs -175 3.5/2

other picks

bosox -130 1.69/1.31
phillies -119 1.78/1.5
Mets -151 1.51/1

2-teamer
--Brewers ml
--D'Backs ml
+171
0.74/1.26

return on investment breakdown for 2-teamer
-------------------------------------------------------
66% Brewers (at -135)+8 value indicator
72% D'Backs (at -180)+7 value indicator
---------------------------------
47.52% chance to hit the 2-teamer (call it 48%, to be generous)
48% (+171)+11 value indicator

48 x 1.71 = 82.08
52 x -1?.= -52
----------------------
?????30.08%

That's pretty good, but with a 52% chance of failure.

Compare it to?

Return on investment breakdown for Cardinals
---------------------------------------------------------
74% (-160)+12 value indicator
-160 is 62.5 cents on the dollar

74 x 0.625 = 46.25
26 x -1?..= -26
------------------------
?????..20.25%

33% less ROI with the straight Cards, but
26/26%=
100% greater risk (only 26% with the Cards and 52% with the 2-teamer) on the 2-teamer.

Cards are the best play of the day, in my opinion. They've been playing better lately. And never mind Perez's brutal start vs the Cards this year (described elsewhere within), for his career at Busch stadium he's pitched 16 innings to get his 7.31 era (Cards have hit .348 off him at Busch, .341 off him overall (era vs Cards 9.32 overall). I think that Perez is dogmeat, here, and I think Wainwright will have no problems outperforming him. Hard to call a Cardinals game at over 70%, this season, but this is one spot that qualifies. Hope it hits to save me BOTH embarrassment and money.

I don't really like either system total, and can't find any others that interest me.
I did it with the moneyline yesterday so hopefully I can keep things rolling here; I was actually 4-1 on the moneyline Saturday, too, so I'm working on a 2-day total of 9-1.
I like these picks (maybe overconfident after yesterday). I think (at least) a 4-3 is likely. It's probably my minimum to break even seeing as I'm paying above-average juice in 3 spots.
Let's up that request to a 5-2, here. That I could handle.
Oh?and it goes without saying that the Cards win tonight.
At least, I'm pretty sure (74%) that will be the case after the final out is recorded, likely in the top of the 9th.

Five in the morning?I should get to bed before I succumb to the temptation to put more cash on the Brewers and D'Backs?that's really what that parlay was supposed to do for me.

Here's hoping that the next time you see me we'll both be smiling.
GL