Chasing...

[kellyindallas]

About two weeks ago I began a series chase system. It's not a system, per se, in that it does not rely upon numbers and stats. It relies more on who the teams are playing, and who the next series is against, etc...

I stay away from heavily favored (and overvalued)teams like the Yankees and bet on solid and productive teams like the A's. When my team wins the first time in the series, that chase is over. I look at the following series as well, in the off chance that my team gets swept.

If something changes during the chase, abort. The only chase that i've lost during these two weeks is on the Cards. Thompson was supposed to pitch, he's out, and Wells is taking his place. Not taking Wells at -150. He is one of the few I just will not wager on. That combined with their injuries and dearth of pitching makes them a poor chase team. I should not have started with them in the first place.

Anyway, other than aborted chase, I've won every single one in the last 10 days or so. Only one even went to the third game. I guess my point is, if you follow how the teams are playing, and you understand matchups, most teams are not going to get swept in a series. So, you selectively choose series where the highest probability lies that your team will win at least one game.

Not rocket science, I understand, I just don't see why more people don't wager this way. I see the key to being successful in being disciplined and not just wanting action.

I'm interested in hearing thoughts on why this will not work over the long haul.

 

[Skipper]

Kelly:

Help me out here:

Say the A's are -160 in the 1st game and you lay 100. They lose, so you are down 160.

What do you wager on the next game if they are laying 160 again?

Thanks and look forward to hearing more

 

[kellyindallas]

That's the part where I am inconsistent, using my own judgment. Usually I would double up. If they lose, for the third game I'd double up again, OR bet just enough to cover my first two losses and make a small profit, if I don't feel fairly certain that my team will win. I don't bet terribly large sums, probably less than most on here. I basically look at who the matchups are going to be, realize what the odds are going to be, and adjust accordingly. If I expect a loss on the first game, maybe I bet less initially. I guess it's tailor-made to each series. With each series I basically figure what the most amount is I'm willing to lose and bet so that if I double up each game I will not lose more than that amount if I get swept. I like teams like the Nats, who are undervalued. However, I realize they COULD go on a 7 game losing skid at any time (so did the Yankees, at a hell of a lot more expensive price), that's where you check maybe two home series in a row. The odds are in their favor almost every game, so even if you double up each game you're out less money. Any team can come or go, depending on the streak they're on. Right now I like the A's, Indians and Braves. That may change in a week. You just go with who is doing reasonably well at the time. I guess the issue is there' no set formula, a lot of it depends on you reading the momentum of the team properly. I don't like the heavily favored series, I prefer pretty much equal teams playing each other, as it is more unlikely that one team will be swept.

 

[tig3rs]

i totally get you here kelly. i play series, post most of them... and am most likely gonna play them til they win the series... if they does lose, for example, the second game in the serires after winning the first, i play for the win in the 3rd. if they win the first 2 of 3, i lay off for the third unless the pitching matchup is completely lopsided, then i may play for the sweep. if you're going to be adjusting your wagers based on matchups everyday and you're looking ahead 3-4 games... you should be in very good shape. it's how i've won the whole year. good job. keep it up.

 

[slapdoggydog]

right now im chasing a win for 3 teams

orioles -8 in a row
mariners -5
giants -5

and d'backs have never won against d'rays,so thats 4 teams im actually chasing

how would you go about playing these

gl on your plays

 

[kellyindallas]

Yes, I've been reading your posts, they're great, along with everyone else on here. Several people have their own systems and do quite well. I've tried to follow people in the past and seem to lose doing that (I realize everyone feels like that happens to them when they follow). I tried the chase one team until it wins - totally stupid- and learned quickly that wasn't the way to go, either. Obviously, unexpected things can and do happen. That's why for one series you never wager more than you're willing to lose, and cut your losses should the unlikely event happen. For me, the hardest part is laying off of series/teams where you don't have a strong feeling. I also stay away from heavily favored series, don't like laying that much juice. If anything, I'd be more tempted to take the other side - even if they got swept, you wouldn't be out that much.

 

[kellyindallas]

FYI, I already won on the Braves, Indians and A's, so those chases are over.

 

[kellyindallas]

Slapdoggydog - I'm with you on Seattle and Arizona. The other two, until they show some semblance of resuming major league play, I'd lay off. I'm CERTAINLY not one to be following in any way, I'm still tinkering to see if what I do is profitable over the long haul. I can't play the Giants when Milw is red hot, were I to lose the chase, they follow with the Yanks. Not a good schedule. After losing as many as they have, they're bound to win eventually, right? I just don't have enough faith to bet them with their current schedule. Orioles, I'm not touching with their recent play. The coaching change may spur them to victory, that kind of stuff always changes things, but I'd wait until the dust settles. That's just me, though, and their are many more qualified to speak about their theories.

Good luck to all...and again, if you think this is a bad way to go, let me know and your reasons why.

 

[McVegas]

Was never a fan of chasing......then last year I decided to try it (I had a terrible record at MLB and figured I would give it a shot). It worked for me, I turned a profit for the first time ever on baseball. I stuck to small bets on the home teams and if the juice was too high I let it go. Only problem is when you get swept (which is a BIG problem), last year only 4 teams made it through the season without getting swept at home (TOR,TB,MIN, and NYM) and only 1 team did it on the road (NYY), keep in mind these stats do not include two game series. So far this year the AL home teams are doing the best, only been swept 12 times (KC 3 times!! BAL and TEX 2 times and NYY TOR TB DET SEA once each), once again that does not include 2 game series, nor does it include a 3 game series in which the first game was rained out and not made up in a doubleheader, it DOES include series in which the first game was played and then a rain out occurred. Anyway, I see what you are getting at, if you keep the bets small you won't go broke quickly (won't win a bundle either, but that's another topic) and you have a chance to turn out a profit. I have been tracking all the teams this year to see who gets swept and how many times it happens, if you need the info let me know I'll post it. Good luck to all.

 

[kellyindallas]

Thanks for your post and your opinion. I don't only do home series, I also play away teams, as well. I just try to stick more to the mid-level teams. I have several chases going on at once, where I have a strong feeling. I'm very pleased with the results so far, I think I'll keep it up for the rest of the season. Even if I get swept it seems as though the remainder of my series are coming through, so I'm still making a profit. I guess we'll see how well I can pick the winners the rest of the season...thanks again for your input.

 

[McVegas]

Last year I only used home teams, this year I have thrown some road teams in as well. I got crushed last week, but I am getting it back this week and I'm still on the plus side for the year. Good luck to you. By the way, stay away from SF, they have been swept SIX TIMES already this year.

 

[kellyindallas]

Ha! Yes, I am. I stay away from teams on really bad losing streaks like the Giants and Orioles. I guess everyone has certain teams they know a bit more than others. For me, the TX/Cubs series was a perfect example. Yes, TX sucks, no doubt. But were the Cubs really going to win three straight here? To me, highly unlikely. You get a good price and the chase is over in 2. I then wait until the next series. To me, the 3rd game of series is a total crapshoot. Anyway, good luck to you with your plays.