Friday June 29th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday June 29th 2007

yesterday: 1-5 -5.10
June: 165-156 -2.52
ml 82-64 -3.08
rl 10-13 -9.06
totals 58-36 +27.65
parlays 15-43 -18.03
system totals 1-0 yesterday, 9-0 the past 4 days, and 73-36 in June (66.9% winners)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

mil 54% (+116)+7
(1)mets 62 (Hernandez vs Durbin)
(2)mets 51 (Maine-Hamels)
Fla 53 (+107)+4
Pitt 66 (-169)+3 RL 51 (+127)+6
stl 51 (Wainwright-Arroyo)
Hou 58 (-141)-1
Sf 56 (-120)+1
sd 65 (-112)+12
laa 64 (-155)+3
Det 59 (-118)+4
Nyy 63 (-168)even
Clev 71 (-191)+5 RL 58 (-103)+7
Bost 63 (-211)-5
cws 53 (-104)+2
tor 52 (+133)+9

system totals

col@Hou ov9 68% (-117)+14 --ump Dreckman is even
sd@Lad un7.5 72 (+103)+22 --ump N/A
min@Det un7.5 74 (-128)+17 --ump N/A


At least I (sorta) took it easy yesterday. Knew I had some tough ones, trying to get a win in Cleveland (A's), trying to get a win from the jokers in Tampa, and playing on Burnett and the Big Unit for their returns. Maybe I'm lucky that the game at Shea was rained out. Couldn't even catch a break at Camden where the Yankees score 4 runs in the top of the 8th to maybe help me salvage a team total and a runline; didn't happen; Mother Nature should stick to growing the good stuff and leave our baseball games alone. I need a decent couple of days to salvage my June.

I'll definitely be trying the Padres for Friday; I'm also considering the Dodgers under 3.5, at a currently nice +105; I have Chris Young currently rated as high as Jake Peavy, which is really saying something; Kuo comes in rated lower?much?same rating as Wandy Rodriguez and Chris Sampson, to give two examples; Padres hitting better against lefties, too. Two others I'm pretty much committed to include the Indians, some way or another, and the under at Comerica. Brewers, Pirates, Angels, White Sox, and Jays will also get my consideration. The other listed totals will get consideration, too, but I'll likely pass at Dodger Stadium as I'm going to be a sizeable Padres player, so I prefer to be able to cheer for countless Padres runs (probably the under is a decent play, though). System called the over at Houston yesterday, and likes it again today in this Fogg-Sampson matchup (arguably a step down in talent from yesterday's starters?and only an extra half-run (9 instead of 8.5)); Astros not scoring tons this year, but maybe the system is on to something here.

That's it for now.
Take it for what it's worth (not much these last few days).
I think that my 'capping has been okay lately,
I just think that some of my choices have been bad.
Bear with me.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Lost in happiness I knew no fears.Innocence and love was all I knew...was an illusion

Lost in happiness I knew no fears.Innocence and love was all I knew...was an illusion

PLAYS

system picks

padres -112 3.36/3
Indians -191 2.86/1.5

other picks

brewers +116 0.5/0.58

totals

min@Det un7.5 -128 1.92/1.5

2-teamer (highest calls?66 & 71%)
--Pirates ml
--Indians ml
+144
0.5/0.72

9-team IF play (will count as parlays, I guess)
1.Dodgers under 3.5 +105 0.5/0.52
2.Indians -1.5 -105 0.52/0.5
3.min@Det un7.5 -130 1/0.77
4.brewers +110 0.79/0.87
5.col@Hou ov9 -120 0.66/0.56
6.Pirates -1.5 +120 0.72/0.87
7.blue jays +120 1/1.2
8.chisox -111 1.11/1
9.Marlins +100 0.79/0.79
Risking 0.5 to win max. 7.08

10-team IF play
1.blue jays +120 0.5/0.6
2.Pirates -1.5 +120 0.5/0.6
3.chisox -111 0.55/0.5
4.brewers +110 0.5/0.55
5.padres -125 1/0.8
6.Indians -1.5 -105 0.84/0.8
7.min@Det un7.5 -130 1.3/1
8.Bosox -1.5 -115 0.8/0.7
9.Marlins +100 0.55/0.55
10.Giants -1.5 +170 0.58/1
Risking 0.5 to win max. 7.1


Trying something a little different. I'm majorly due to get a break or two.
I said something yesterday about hoping for Hirschbeck behind home plate at Comerica; turns out he went yesterday in the Pirates-Marlins matchup; there were 16 runs scored in that game, showing that a solid under-ump is not enough to justify a play; I wouldn't have tried it even had I known?not with OBA .360 Duke tossing?Olsen's not rated too high in my books either.

It's nice to see Young still not getting respect, or at least not a lot of respect; I dunno?maybe the line is proper the way the Dodgers are playing some good ball right now; I just can't see them beating Young here, despite Chris' record of 0-2 vs Lad in 7 starts?that includes a 2.97 era vs them, Dodgers hitting .197 against him; he actually threw a stinker at them on April 15th (taking the loss in a 9-3 decision) but was brilliant against them in his last meeting, on June 5th (3 hits, no runs through 7 IP); Kuo seems to have some good stuff but he's having trouble harnassing it, as his 6.33 era will attest; Kuo was particularly bad in his last two, both on the road, but even at home his era is 4.91 and opponent's are hitting .300 off him.

Indians lose and I may not post a game above 70% again.

My other game of interest is the pitcher's duel coming at Comerica. Both pitcher's are smokin' right now so I'm hoping they both can continue in this one. Wish I knew the umpire but unless it's a Bucknor or a Schrieber than I'll feel pretty safe. Comerica has been surrenduring runs this year?mostly due to the Tigers smokin' the ball?but it is an ideal park for an under play; certainly for one of this magnitude. Hopefully the Tigers bullpen doesn't play too great a role.

That's probably it from here, unless I do some system pick evaluations.
Can't report on Saturday just yet as I haven't even looked at the matchups.
Might 'cap them now.
Findings will be reported tomorrow.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(padres,Indians)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

padres 65% (--112)+12 value indicator

argument for game:
--Padres OPS vs L .754
--Dodgers OPS vs R .713
--Young rated much higher than Kuo
(this is where the big edge is)
--both bullpens solid, but Dodgers more likely to require middle relief in this one
--Dodgers played a long, late one while Padres had a day off
--Padres 22-17 on the road

argument against game:
--Dodgers OPS last 7 days is .883
--Padres OPS last 7 days is .657
--Young 0-2 in 7 career vs Dodgers
--Dodgers 22-14 at home

-112 is 89.3 cents on the dollar
65 x 0.893 = 58.045
35 x -1.......= -35
--------------------------------
...................23.045%

That's excellent. I figured it would be over 20 as we've got a fairly even line for this one.

Indians will be considerably lower...

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Indians 71% (-191)+5 value indicator; just barely a system pick

argument for game:
--Indians OPS vs R .786
--D'Rays OPS vs R .744
--Indians OPS at home .827
--D'Rays OPS on the road .811
(jeez...that's a bit surprising...pretty high)
--Indians OPS last 7 days .784
--D'Rays OPS last 7 days .709
(now we're talkin')
--Westbrook 5-2 in 10 career starts vs D'Rays
--Jackson's 7.39 era speaks volumes; opponent's hitting .321 against him; he's 0-3 on the road in 6 starts...D'Rays are 1-5 in those starts
--both bullpens will be required here and the Indians have a large edge there
--D'Rays have lost 4 straight and 11 of their last 15
--D'Rays are 14-20 on the road
--Indians are 27-12 at home (.692) and have won 6 of their last 8 at home

argument against game:
--Westbrook has not looked good this year as his 1-3 record and 7.08 era attest (looked pretty good in his last, but that was against the Nats)
--that D'Rays OPS on the road is pretty high

-191 is a putrid 52.3 cents on the dollar
71 x 0.523 = 37.133
29 x -1.......= -29
---------------------------------
......................8.133%

Not nearly as attractive.
Padres ROI is
14.912/8.133%=
183% higher with only a
6/29%=
21% increase in risk.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

I still think that there's value in BOTH lines.
This is a game that the Indians should clearly win.
As for the Padres, Chris Young's era over his last 10 starts is 1.13; that's TEN starts...he has been dynamite game in and game out. Despite the Dodgers high OPS over the past 7 days, they can still be shut down by a good right-hander as Brandon Webb displayed a couple of days ago--that was in a hitter's park, too (Chase Field), while this one will be played at a pitcher's park.

I'd probably pound these 2 if I had any extra cash for the month; as it is, I'm just going to try and keep myself from LOSING 10 units this month, if possible.

May July bring us less aggravation.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

early report for Saturday

early report for Saturday

I've 'capped the games.
Looking at 7 at 60% or higher. Two will be over 70% (Indians with Sabathia and Bosox with Beckett), but I expect that those two will be priced out of this world (like -240 to -280).
A 60% probability for either runline sounds fair, so a +100 to -120 line there might be worthwhile (nevermind my runline record, dagnabbit).

Hoping for a good price for the Brewers with Sheets, as the Brew-Crew will get to face a lefty (Marshall) for the second game in a row; Brewers lead MLB with runs scored off of lefties; OPS .837 vs lefties while Cubs are .761 against righties.

I have the Braves as a huge road favorite (Hudson-Kim). A line as cheap as -150 and I'll try them; maybe even for a unit at -160.

Might get a good line at San Fran, where I've got the Giants as a big fave. D'Backs really struggling against lefties (OPS .668) and I prefer Lowry right now over Doug Davis. Giants OPS vs L only .700 and is only .675 at home, mind you. D'Backs OPS on the road only .693 and they're tied for last (with the Nats) in runs scored on the road.
I'm a player at up to -130. Maybe for a unit at -140 if the Giants win tonight.

Might have my highest rated under play of the year as Jake Peavy faces Brad Penny at Dodger Stadium. If we see a 7 I'm looking at an 87% call on the under; maybe a little inflated but that's the way my system totals are going. Can't argue with the record. I'll be more confident in the call if my under at Comerica comes through. Three things that concern me about this under play is one, that Peavy hasn't been his sharpest over his past 2 starts, yeilding 3 earned runs each time (he gave up 15 hits over 11 IP, striking out "only" 10), and two, Peavy had a bad game (for him) in his last one vs the Dodgers back on June 7th (gave up 4 earned runs over 6.2 IP), and three, Penny really doesn't like facing the Padres--he's 3-6 with a 6.03 era against them in 13 starts...none yet this season. I think I'm still a player if we get a 7 (anything less and I'll pass), as long as the umpire is appropriate; will know the umpire by the time I post tonight. As for the side on this game, I've got a tentative call of Dodgers 55%; really an impossible game to call.

Got the Tigers with a huge number, too. Miller vs Slowey will probably make the Tigers a -140 to -160 favorite. At -150 it will be a system pick as long as the Tigers win tonight; Twins win and I'll need a -140, about, for a system pick.

Jays might be worth a shot (Halladay-Batista) but Halladay is commanding heavy juice this year despite his above-average (for him) era (4.25). Judging by today's line, I'd say that a -120 or -125 is the best we can expect for Toronto. Not really any value in that as I'm looking at a call in the high 50's. Maybe better value on the Jays today as they're much better vs lefties and McGowan might be undervalued, a bit, if his last game was any indication of things to come (took a no-hitter into the 9th).

Most of the other games, not discussed, are very low calls, meaning fairly close matchups.


I think I've said enough about tomorrow.
I'm not even sure if anybody cares two bits about tomorrow today.
Lets me get my thoughts down, anyway.

Go Padres!!!

:SIB

 

[Craiger]

Thanks for all the breakdowns ExtraP ** Love your insight>>Hopefully I can get some action in if I can get home before 7 pm tonight est>> work is killin me !!!! GL today !~:00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, Craiger.
Hopefully it starts paying off soon.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Pumpin' ump the jam!

Padres lead 4.5 -135 2.7/2
Padres -112 2.24/2

C'mon Padres!
:00hour
Help me salvage my June!

:weed:
:SIB

 

[emmitt]

ex

ex

you are must read!! thx for everything so far!! bol emmitt

 

[Craiger]

should be called Extra Extrapolater !! such good info. and always look forward to his work.. Extremely appreciated EP~. gonna plink down on SD with ya!! already my 3 unit is the over 1st 5. lets go SD !!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Crap...24 pitches for Young in that 1st inning.
12 to Gonzalez alone in that last AB.
I'm glad he kept it to 1, at least...

C'mon Padres!!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

not looking so freakin' hot, aye?
:com:

Sure is easy to get sick of losing.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Lucky to give up only 1 run again, there.

Chris has got to keep people off base; that's 4 stolen bases off him already this game.

I'm crappin' my pants, here.

:scared

We've gotta get to Kuo.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

KOUZMANOFF!!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Stick a fork in Kuo...he is DONE!

:00hour

 

[Craiger]

Never in doubt** knew they would get to em.. looked blinded with dental floss when the heat hit em!! wootmun! time to corral the win !! go Padres go@!