Saturday July 7th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Saturday July 7th 2007

yesterday: 8-2 +9.76
July: 38-32 +5.91
ml 22-15 +7.1
rl 2-2 +0.96
totals 12-13 -3.2
parlays 2-2 +1.05
system picks 3-0 yesterday; 18-5 the past 8 days and 8-0 the past 3 days (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals went 1-2-1 yesterday; 10-8 in July

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Sd 55% (-135)-3
cubs 51 (-140)-8 Pitt 49 (+132)+5
mil 63 (-138)+5
Hou 51 (+110)+3
ariz 56 (-140)-3
sf 59 (+102)+9
Col 51 (-104)even
Lad 57 (-153)-4
Tor 53 (+101)+3
Nyy 61 (-123)+5
Cws 59 (-126)+3
Oak 56 (-126)even
Kc 57 (-142)-2
Det 69 (-145)+9 RL 55 (+140)+13
balt 54 (-122)-1

system totals

mets@Hou ov9 71% (-125)+15 --ump Randazzo is a slight over-ump (low K%)
phil@Col ov10.5 78 (-125)+22 --ump Hirschbeck is SUPER-under; won't touch it
fla@Lad un7.5 70 (-110)+17 --ump Marquez is even
clev@Tor un9.5 65 (-125)+9 --ump Poncino is even
laa@Nyy un9 66 (-105)+14 --ump Cousins is even
seat@Oak un8 75 (-105)+23 --ump Foster is even


What comes around goes around. Got a major break in Colorado yesterday. Went 7-1 on the moneyline and 1-1-1 on totals. System sides called another 12 games right yesterday and are now 58-29 in July (66.6% winners). Most importantly, system picks are on a great run early in the month. Two more kicks at the cat before the break?

I'm liking the Tigers to keep things going. Giants Lincecum is also an attraction on today's board. Brewers and Yankees a little less so. Jays and Chisox are possibilities; hard to play the Pale Hose after yesterday's double-header, with them surrenduring 32 runs and all; I dunno?you'd think they'd want revenge here but the Twins may simply not allow it. Marcum is better than Carmona, right now, but I'm not sure how that one will play out; still considering the under, which might be stupid after yesterday's high score. My totals aren't so hot this month, and there's nothing that really grabs me of this bunch.

Will post what's played.
GL

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

not sure about this total at Houston

Astros batter's seem to have poor #'s vs Glavine

Mind you, Astros pummelled Glavine in their last meeting, a year ago (it was in Houston, too, and he allowed 6 earned runs over 5 IP)

ump doesn't hurt (low K%)

PLUS Glavine was pounded at Coors last time out

PLUS Glavine has been pounded in his past 3 road games (era of 13.82 in the 3...vs Rocks, Yanks, and Tigers, mind you)

Astros OPS vs righties only .732 but against lefties they're at .785
Mets vs righties only .741 but that should go up some here at this park (swing-and-a-miss yesterday, though...AND vs the more favorable (for the Mets) lefty)

Astros OPS last 7 days .806
Mets last 7 at .834

Woody has been surprisingly decent for 2 straight now, but still owns a 5.36 era at Minute Maid Park (5.47 overall, opponent's hitting .293)

I'm not impressed by the 4-0 score yesterday, as far as playing this goes, but I think I've talked myself into it with the preceeding analysis.

Hopefully the Astros can hit Glavine.
Should.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

Tigers -145 4.35/3

other picks

brewers -138 1.73/1.27
giants +102 1/1.02
Blue Jays +101 1/1.01
Yankees -123 1.84/1.5

totals

mets@Hou ov9 -125 1/0.8
seat@Oak un8 -105 0.73/0.7

2-teamer (lookin' for unders in all the wrong places)
--ariz@Cin un9
--balt@Tex un10
+276
0.36/1


All five of my sides were winners in their respective games yesterday, so hopefully I can get some continuation here. Tigers and a couple of other hits and I should be okay.

Sunday might be worthwhile. I was thinking about taking these couple of days off but along with the Tigers today I should have another 4 or 5 tomorrow at 65% or higher. Decent lines are expected on at least a couple. 10 of 15 games, in all, should be at 60% or higher, unlike today with only 3, so there's a good chance I'll have a lot of action just prior to the break. Need to avoid getting smoked today to allow for that to happen.

GL

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

havin' a final puff before hitting the hay (it's Zeppelin, this morning, for the headphone session...I always crash listening to tunes)

---------------------------------------------------------------------
return on investment breakdown for system pick
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Tigers)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Tigers 69% (-145)+9 V.I.

briefly:
--Tigers smokin' lefties and have the edge at the plate for this one
--Tigers the edge at starter
--Tigers playing great ball at home this year
--Tigers made it look easy yesterday, winning 9-2

-145 is 68.9 cents on the dollar
69 x 0.689 = 47.541
31 x -1.......= -31
--------------------------------
....................16.541%


Certainly worth a go, here.

Bonderman coming off a great game; hope he has it today; hope the pen ain't a factor (Tigers sticks might save the bullpen).

Go Tigers!!!
:00hour

:weed:

:SIB

 

[bjfinste]

Like that Dbacks total in your 2-teamer a lot. I think that sets up well. Great American is heaven for fly-balls-that-become-homers, so Webb's ability to keep the ball on the ground should help a lot. Ump seems to be a fan, as well.

Also on the Brewers and Tigers (took a stab with RL for both), Giants and A's under. The one play I like that doesn't work into your numbers is the Twins. Bats are obviously swinging, and I like Boof. Well, maybe I just like saying "Boof", but regardless, I think the Twins, esp. as a dog after tonight's outburst, have a chance to cash.

Good luck to us.

 

[Riskbreaker]

Go Tigers!

GL EP

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

can I get a little mojo on the Tigers now...

Lets Go Boys...you've made me wait long enough!

:00hour :00hour :00hour
GO TIGERS!!!
:00hour :00hour :00hour

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

:weed:

:SIB