Tuesday July 24th 2007
yesterday: 8-8 +5.99
July: 98-105 +3.22
ml 57-44 +10.35
rl 5-5 +3.87
totals 21-28 -8.82
parlays 15-28 -2.18
system picks 3-0 yesterday; 30-16 in July (65%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-1 yesterday; 30-33 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Phil 63% (-156)+2
mil 60 (-134)+2
Mets 65 (-172)+1
Hou 53 (-108)+1
cubs 63 (-132)+6
sd 60 (-139)+1
fla 54 (-104)+3
atl 70 (-124)+14 RL 56 (+126)+11
(1)det 69 (Bonderman-Floyd)
(2)Cws 54 (Vazquez-Vasquez)
(1)Tex 53 (-110)even
(2)Tex 53 (+108)+4
Tor 56 (-116)+2
bost 52 (+116)+5
tb 64 (-102)+13
nyy 77 (-233)+7 RL 64 (-141)+5
Laa 66 (-175)+2 RL 50 (+122)+4
system totals
pitt@Mets un8.5 79% (-109)+26 --ump N/A
lad@Hou ov9.5 75 (-110)+22 --Davis is a decent OVER-ump
cubs@Stl un8.5 69 (+102)+19 --ump N/A
sd@Col un10 82 (-124)+26 --Barrett is a good UNDER-ump
(1)seat@Tex ov11 74 (-105)+22 --Cederstrom, if it's him, is a bit of an OVER-ump
oak@Laa un8.5 65 (-105)+13 --ump Kellogg is even (low K% this year)
Yesterday was just fine. Seems like I should just be sticking to sides right now, though, as I went 4-1 there (plus a runline) but only 3-7 on my totals; tried to get a little too creative with the totals yesterday, going 1-5 on non-system totals; went 1-1 on team totals. I was hurtin' for much of June (down 15 units at one point), also, before turning on the jets near the end of the month to go plus 7 units; hopefully I can close out July strong?
Braves, D'Rays and Yankees are all system picks today. D'Rays have dropped games on me before, as a system pick, but Rangers finally bagged one as a system call and I think that the D'Rays are in a great position to win Tuesday; they're OPS is much higher on the road than at home this year (MUCH different than last season), Orioles last few has seen their production drop (OPS under .700 last 7 days--still without key bat Tejada), and we've got a pretty monster mismatch at SP here. Braves should have as good a chance as they had yesterday, I would think?maybe more, as Morris has been much worse than Cain lately and Braves won't be playing off of a travel day like they did Monday. Gotta figure out how (or if) to tackle the Yankees; Elarton is 3-0, 4.85 era career vs the Yankees, but I'm expecting that unbeaten record to change here as he has been horrible in limited action this year; big edge with Wang but the larger edge comes at the dish for this one.
Brewers, Mets, Cubs, Padres, Jays, Bosox and Angels are also under consideration.
Lots of appropriate umpires today for the system totals, so I'll probably bite the bullet and keep on trying them. I sort of like them all except that last one, in Anaheim; Escobar hasn't done his best work against the A's, including losing one to them already this season (though he pitched fairly well?era of 3.00); A's bats extremely unpredictable but they did get a break yesterday facing a struggling Colon. Tricky game, that one.
Will post picks by sunrise.
Other musings likely.
GL
yesterday: 8-8 +5.99
July: 98-105 +3.22
ml 57-44 +10.35
rl 5-5 +3.87
totals 21-28 -8.82
parlays 15-28 -2.18
system picks 3-0 yesterday; 30-16 in July (65%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 1-1 yesterday; 30-33 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Phil 63% (-156)+2
mil 60 (-134)+2
Mets 65 (-172)+1
Hou 53 (-108)+1
cubs 63 (-132)+6
sd 60 (-139)+1
fla 54 (-104)+3
atl 70 (-124)+14 RL 56 (+126)+11
(1)det 69 (Bonderman-Floyd)
(2)Cws 54 (Vazquez-Vasquez)
(1)Tex 53 (-110)even
(2)Tex 53 (+108)+4
Tor 56 (-116)+2
bost 52 (+116)+5
tb 64 (-102)+13
nyy 77 (-233)+7 RL 64 (-141)+5
Laa 66 (-175)+2 RL 50 (+122)+4
system totals
pitt@Mets un8.5 79% (-109)+26 --ump N/A
lad@Hou ov9.5 75 (-110)+22 --Davis is a decent OVER-ump
cubs@Stl un8.5 69 (+102)+19 --ump N/A
sd@Col un10 82 (-124)+26 --Barrett is a good UNDER-ump
(1)seat@Tex ov11 74 (-105)+22 --Cederstrom, if it's him, is a bit of an OVER-ump
oak@Laa un8.5 65 (-105)+13 --ump Kellogg is even (low K% this year)
Yesterday was just fine. Seems like I should just be sticking to sides right now, though, as I went 4-1 there (plus a runline) but only 3-7 on my totals; tried to get a little too creative with the totals yesterday, going 1-5 on non-system totals; went 1-1 on team totals. I was hurtin' for much of June (down 15 units at one point), also, before turning on the jets near the end of the month to go plus 7 units; hopefully I can close out July strong?
Braves, D'Rays and Yankees are all system picks today. D'Rays have dropped games on me before, as a system pick, but Rangers finally bagged one as a system call and I think that the D'Rays are in a great position to win Tuesday; they're OPS is much higher on the road than at home this year (MUCH different than last season), Orioles last few has seen their production drop (OPS under .700 last 7 days--still without key bat Tejada), and we've got a pretty monster mismatch at SP here. Braves should have as good a chance as they had yesterday, I would think?maybe more, as Morris has been much worse than Cain lately and Braves won't be playing off of a travel day like they did Monday. Gotta figure out how (or if) to tackle the Yankees; Elarton is 3-0, 4.85 era career vs the Yankees, but I'm expecting that unbeaten record to change here as he has been horrible in limited action this year; big edge with Wang but the larger edge comes at the dish for this one.
Brewers, Mets, Cubs, Padres, Jays, Bosox and Angels are also under consideration.
Lots of appropriate umpires today for the system totals, so I'll probably bite the bullet and keep on trying them. I sort of like them all except that last one, in Anaheim; Escobar hasn't done his best work against the A's, including losing one to them already this season (though he pitched fairly well?era of 3.00); A's bats extremely unpredictable but they did get a break yesterday facing a struggling Colon. Tricky game, that one.
Will post picks by sunrise.
Other musings likely.
GL
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