Fri games

[gsp]

What a screw-up yesterday. I posted 5 plays yesterday morning. They went 1-4. If I just opened my eyes and not let my personal opinion influence my calls I would have gone 4-1. Would have nailed both the Phil and Balt games for a nice doggie par. Later when I was asked about certain games I didn't like, I got every one of them right. I'll try to do better. Today I only know the help in the Colo game and there are some others I really like that need a little help. Here's my call on the Colo game and it will be a play.

Colo and under.

Here's where I'm needing at least a little help.

Cle and under (just a little would be nice), Det over, Cinn, Mets (will par with Cinn), Phil and over, Mil, LAD and under, Tx and over (don't need a lot to go with the side and total), Ari and over, Pit and under.

Most of these are strong situation plays and I can see myself using as many a seven if they get any help at all.

Sorry about yesterday.

 

[gsp]

I started to post this a couple of weeks ago and would probably saved me and some others some money if I had and paid attention to it.

KC at home has been a dangerous team all year. That don't mean they are a top team but that they win games when people don't think they should. Take yesterday's game as an example. I called Minn, played Minn and lost. You had Everitt behind the plate and at first glance it looked like the fav was the way to go. He is 15-7 on the year for the fav. Only 8 of those 15 times has the fav covered the rl. That translates into the dog being within a run of wining 14 out of 22 times. A closer look will show you that the hometeam is 14-8. That's almost as good as 15-7. The road fav is 3-2. All these number are before last night's game. If I had really looked and it wasn't KC and they are supposed to be bad, you couldn't have made me play that game and it gets worse. In game 3's at home, KC is 9-8. Their record at home was 25-32 while Minn on the road was 25-28. That's sure not enough to get me interested much less put money on it.

Now that brings us to tonight where I really like Tor. It will take a lot of help before I'll put a penny on it. Here's what it looks like. KC at home in game 1 of a series is only 7-10 but the fav is only 9-8 while Tor on the road in the first game of a series is 5-11 but the fav is a little better at 11-5. If you add the home wins and the fav wins it might surprise you. Home wins would be 18-15 in KC's favor and the fav would be 20-13 for Tor who at this time is a slight fav. Each team's over-all record, KC (26-32 home), Tor (22-34 road). I'm not saying Tor will or won't win but I'm not going to Ray and ask for money to play it.

Since I've got a little time and am pretty bored, I thought I would throw this out for you to think about.

Be back when I know the help.

 

[shamrock]

Joe, if you get a minute, sent you email.

thanks

 

[gsp]

a little help

The dog if there is one at Balt. Cle.

 

[yanno]

Hi gsp...thanks for the info on the Jays/Royals game tonite. I was looking at some elementary numbers and hope you don't mind my adding them to your thread.

Toronto is just above .500 overall (57-56) but the thing that is driving folks here crazy is that they are 35-22 AH and 22-34 OTR. Their road record is only .393 while the home record is .614 and nobody (including them) can figure this out. Doesn't look good for Toronto tonite. AND Toronto is 6-2 last 8 meets between these clubs BUT 4-6 @ Kaufman in KC. Toronto has the worst road record of any of the eight +.500 teams. Some have suggested they are built for the Rogers Centre (home run park) and cannot play in other parks. KC might be one. I don't buy this because they are also bad in homerun-friendly parks like Texas. They have started to hit lately, so maybe this is a wash.

Looking at the starting pitching...Marcum is the best of the new pitchers who showed up after injuries to AJ Burnett, Chaucin, Halladay for a while. He is 8-4 as a starter so far (3.63 ERA) and ALSO he is 4-1 (2.32 ERA) on his OTR starts. He is on a 3 game winning streak with 3.15 ERA over the streak.

Now for Meche...he is on a 3 game losing streak with a 6.75 ERA. Maybe enough said...

Personally, I'm going with Colorado tonite...but you got me thinking about this game and for that I thank you. Normally I wouldn't play a "homer" game but this is looking like a near play for me. Do you have any info on the "help"? I am clueless on that. Thanks and GOOD LUCK ON YOUR PLAYS TONITE. Sorry for invading your thread, but thanks for all the (different) takes you give us. I always check you out.

 

[gsp]

thanks yanno. It all comes down to the help with me on this game. If LAD wins, so does Tor.

Now I've seen it all. MLB is not listing the help for the Mets game and USA isn't listing any for any of the games tonight.

 

[shamrock]

Joe, you still parring Metz & Cincinnati?

 

[gsp]

sorry guys. I'm getting no help on anything so far. Yes I parred them for better or worse. I like LAD but believe that if they win so does Tor and with Marsh it's a crapshoot. Surely we'll get something if I don't run out of time. If not I'm going with Tx and over and Colo.

 

[gsp]

Got some help I like and some I didn't want.

Mil (will be a play)
Stl (I've already go LAD in a par so just have to hope)

I've run out of time so good luck everyone.

 

[yanno]

Ok...I'm sorry, one last word on the Jays game...I've looked at numbers and their hitting OTR is ok, it's been the pitching that is showing a higher ERA...so...

it seems to me that Marcum with a good road ERA is maybe a good bet tonite...sorry, gsp...I know this is not your way of capping...just that I got involved with your Tor/KC analysis...won't happen again...Good Luck tonite, guy!!!