AFL Rd. 20.

[MrChristo]

2-1 last week.
16-8-1 in own thread.
26-17-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.

Looks like it will be a very quite weekend coming up for me...

...a few totals will hopefully present, but side-wise...end of season sucks. :nono:

Collingwood have been just awful in the last month. Melbourne showed something on Saturday, but Bulldogs were without Johnson, and lost Grant and Gia early.
I guess Collingwood still deserve to be favs, just because Melbourne are crap!!...but definately couldn't take them as such.

How do Carlton lose this one on purpose?? Essendon have fallen right away, and now plan on 'playing youth'. [I sure hope that doesn't mean resting Lucas and Fletcher, or my Dream Team's season is over!]
The Blues have been more than competative since Ratten took over, and really, all things being equal they should win this game.
Unfortunately, as we know, all things aren't equal. There's a number 1 draft pick (not) to play for here.
Thornton out, and some rookie to start at FB. Could get nasty with Lloyd and Lucas going off.


Freo crap away from home...Saints much better indoors...
...have only lost 2 of their last 8!, but still some poor results in there...beating Richmond by 8, Carlton by 10 and a draw with the Dogs.
Last quarter fade out hurt again on the weekend, so you just can't trust them to put a team away.
Freo must be some chance. Just don't like them!
Would have taken +11.5, doesn't look like it will happen.

Sydney have a great record v. Brisbane...and despite the numbers (Brisbane av. 60 I50's per game in last 5!!!) I don't think now their form has been great.
Wins over a half strength Eagles, Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood, Kangas all struggling...beaten on the weekend by a solid defensive team.
Still, balance that by Sydney's last 5 wins have been over Richmond, Freo (home), Carlton and Melbourne aswell...and snuck by the Saints this week.
Odds are pretty right here. I think Swans should start slight favs.

West Coast win, but don't tend to hammer teams. Richmond actually have a good record over in the west...but lost their previous 4 games by 53+ points, all to contenders.
Not sure the win over Collingwood means much at all.
Might get a decent under number given both teams' high flying last month.

I suspect Hawthorn will win, and 1.50 is pretty fair.
Don't think I could take the -12 or so on offer tho.
Port have beaten Essendon, Brisbane (with the worst statistical win just about ever!!), a horribly under-manned Eagles, Melbourne, Richmond and Carlton.
Hawks 4 losses in last 10 have all come v. very strong defensive teams (2 of those were without Franklin aswell)...Port certainly aren't.

Geelong win, and I guess 1.20 is only fair for a team that's won 14 straight! But, there's every chance the Kangas hang close...they did win the first meeting this season @ Geelong, and also last year @ Canberra as reasonanly big 'dogs.
Not all that interested.

Speaking of which...Doggies always struggle against the Crows, but Adelaide's form has been ordinary at best. Just 3 wins in their last 10!!
Would like to thnk the Dogs will be a lot better with their leading goal kicker back and a full 22 to play with, but couldn't go near them atm...and Adelaide @ 1.20 is a bit of a joke.


SO...waiting for some totals and will grab Hawthorn @ 1.60 if I can get it.

Good luck to everyone having a stab this weekend.

 

[bombercoops]

Nice write-ups as always christo.
I can't see the pies losing to the tigers and dees in successive weeks and would expect them to regroup for friday nights' game. I see value in giving up 8.5 points but just to be safe, but will jump on the ML for more of a buffer.
Essendon always struggles against carlton, even at the best of times, and the way things have unravelled in recent weeks I would be surprised to see the dons win this game. They are downright shocking atm. If carlton come out with any sort of enthusiasm this week (keeping in mind that they always bring plenty to this game), they should win.
Collingwood ML and Carlton +11.5 for me this week.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Melbourne could well beat Collingwood Coops.

You may not be aware (from being overseas) that it is David Neitz's 300th game. Remember back to earlier this season when the great man Archer played his 300th. My Roos were NEVER going to lose that one! I'd expect the Demons to come out hard against the pies and win it for him. They have won the last four encounters too!

Carlton will find away to lose to your Bombers too. That extra draft pick has too much value to them. An 11.5pt buffer aint enough when they close up shop in the last quarter!

 

[bombercoops]

Wow! You've really done a tidy job of shutting down my 2 plays for the weekend paw- lmao! Cheers mate. :mj07: Yep, milestone games always seem to have an effect but I feel that if the pies can play a strong first half with all the emotion involved with Neitz's 300th they should cross the line come games end. And as important as the #1 draft pick may be, well, essendon are straight up bad and will play a few rookie's this week. See how they pan out. :shrug: Going small on both plays.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

.....oh yeah...and then there's the little problem with Malthouse's old man's funeral, which they are suggesting he won't even be coaching come Friday night!! Stepping in will be Guy McKenna if he doesn't front.

Melb 1-39 is the play I reckon.

 

[bombercoops]

Thanks for the updates paw. It's good to know all these things as they can definitely affect the play on a game. Adding Geelong half time/full time @ $1.48. U guys ready for the NFL? Can't wait to fire up some teasers Jase! :00hour

 

[MrChristo]

I agree completely, Pawa.

No way I'd be taking Collingwood in this game.

They've brought in Rusling for his first game of the season!...R. Shaw back...5 changes, a couple with doubtful fitness amongst them...

Still think maybe 2.30 is a bit short for a rubbish team with 3 wins, but the Pies? :nono:

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

gl man :toast:

 

[MrChristo]

Playing Hawthorn @ 1.61

Had a number I wanted for the over tonight, but it appears everyone else thinks the same and the price is falling!
Wait to see what Centrebet offer, but probably best left alone with the forecast anyway.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hawks went within a bee's dick of becoming a 'hybrid' C

Will certainly add em to any multi :thumb:

 

[MrChristo]

Essendon v. Carlton over 205.5 (1.90)

Seems strangely low!! This could hit 255 easily enough!
Lots of scoring power. Not much defense at the best of times, let alone when neither team seems to care too much about this one.

 

[MrChristo]

Freo @ St. Kilda under 181.5 (effectively 2.28)
[saver 182-201]

Total is inflated by Freo's last 4 games, all of which have gone over 200...but they've kicked a total of 70.42!!
2 pretty poor D's in WC and Essendon...Geelong smacked 140 on them, which the Saints certainly won't, and 227 @ Adelaide but just 52 shots!!
Freo have very close stats to the Bulldogs, both away and in their last 5, and the Dogs and Saints combined for just 50 shots and 170 points 2 weeks ago.
This one is more about the Saints anyway. Only 3 games in their last 10 have gone 190 or more...Geelong kicked 19.11, Richmond and Carlton!
6 of their last 9 games have been 175 or less.
Gehrig hurting will limit their scoring. Their strong defensive midfield should be able to limit the Dockers to a decent score.
Just hoping for some "normal" kicking at goal!
Tough to see more than 56 shots here.

 

[bombercoops]

All the best with your totals today christo. Taken the other side of your Carton/Essendon game due to the possible wet weather conditions. Essendon struggling to kick any points at all in recent weeks- pathetic across the ground really, esp at the 'G'.
Happy the pies scraped in last night after kicking only 2 second half goals. Can't believe how bad they have been in the past month and a half.

 

[bombercoops]

Well, somehow essendon prevail or should i say, Carlton nicely gag it off late in that game today. Luckily cover the spread by a point and a half so was happy to see that. Would've been harsh to have seen them not cover after leading for pretty much the whole game.
Ripper in Brisbane tonight also ay! I'm sure some of you had a good time watching that one late in the game. Looked like sydney had most of the play and scoring shots and should've won. Had them to win inside 39 points so Brown's kick 2 secs from the final siren didn't really help my cause. lol!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Carlton do what they have to do in that last quarter to secure the extra pick! Will not win at any cost. Load up on my Roos next week when we play them.

Melbourne lost two men to hospital and Davey with a hamstring in the second half, yet almost ran down Collingwood at the death. Poor bastards ran out of legs. Poor disposal by both teams made it difficult to watch!!

Poor accuracy at goal looks like it cost Sydney. Big Brown bombs one thru at the death.


Expect my Roos to serve up a steaming dish of defeat to Geelong tomorrow arvo boys. After all......we are the last team to beat them....some 14 weeks ago!! Im serious....








...............NAHHHHH :mj07:

They may just nail our arse to the cross!!

 

[bombercoops]

Very competitive effort by your roos thus far jase. Low scoring affair. Did you make the effort to get to the game today mate?

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Would have gone mark but I had my youngest one's confirmation. Had to settle for the delayed tv telecast. Their backline was simply to good at repelling us and their midfield a little too slick. We did fight it out but simply not in the same class as these guys. Mind you they did lose the plot in the last quarter for a while when put under pressure.

Try to check out your Bombers highlights this week mate coz you will see a Lloyd goal....backwards off his heel!!