Sunday August 26th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Sunday August 26th 2007

yesterday: 8-6 +4.43
August: 174-140 +83.72
ml 76-44 +55.01
rl 8-8 -0.36
totals 39-27 +9.53
parlays & IFs 51-61 +19.54
system picks 2-2 yesterday; 43-21 in August (67%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 4-3 yesterday; 50-35 in August (59%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mets 69% (-168)+6 RL 53 (+127)+8
Cin 56 (Shearn-Barone)
Phil 66 (-145)+6 RL 51 (+135)+8
Hou 60 (-150)even
Stl 62 (-155)+1
Col 54 (-140)-5
Sf 63 (-145)+3
Ariz 51 (+111)+3
nyy 58 (-145)-2
Balt 71 (-175)+7 RL 56 (+127)+11
oak 68 (-150)+8 RL 54 (+108)+5
clev 62 (-135)+4
Laa 67 (-166)+4 RL 52 (+133)+9
Cws 53 (-107)+1
seat 56 (-145)-4

system totals

nyy@Det un10.5 68% (-105)+16 --Holbrook is an over-ump; kills this one
min@Balt un8 67 (-111)+14 --ump Hallion is even
seat@Tex ov10.5 70 (-115)+16 --ump Wolf even in years past but 9-15 this year with a huge K%; killing this one, too; M's team total (over) looks better


Went 6-3 on the moneyline to pick up some coin there. 2-2 on totals resulted in a small minus there. Missed my lone parlay. Braves game was really the only dissappointing result (had a 3-0 lead, after all); the other system pick that missed (Brewers) I had to make a last second decision on whether or not it should be high enough for a system pick (was the difference between 62 and 63%) and I guess I made the wrong decision (truth is it wasn't a pick but I gave it the extra percent to get it there?won't happen like that again). Enough about Saturday?bottom line is it was a one-day losing streak, for next-to-nothing; the best kind of losing streak to have, if yougottahaveone.

Sunday's got 4 true system picks on tap. Mets Maine hasn't been fantastic lately but should have plenty enough for whatever the surging Mets manage to score against Booger Wells. Stauffer really sucked as a starter earlier this season and should be outduelled by the B-grade Kendrick; Phillies sticks should wake up for this one. Baker has been decent, lately, but should be no match for Bedard; O's slumbering sticks on Saturday makes this one a little scary for the moneyline price or the runline proposition; under might work here, too, and I'll check out team totals soon after posting this. A's get a ginormous SP mismatch as Sonnanstine's rating is down into the fade material range; A's sticks were hot, too, before this series started, and should plate 5 or more in this one, easy, I would think.

Cards, Astros and Giants also look good for Sunday but are all a bit expensive, kinda killing any value on those. Over in the AL, the Indians and Angels are likely winners but again have little value due to the lines. I might add some of these mentioned on some kinda plays.

My total list is a total joke, today. O's game is the only one in play. I'll likely give it a go, depending on what kinda O's action I end up with.

I've cleared 33.74 units over the past 2 Sundays (have actually won for 4 consecutive Sundays).
My action won't be heavy enough to keep up that pace but a healthy overall return on investment would be groovy.

Will post what's played.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

a boo at team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

Mets ov5 +105 (+10)Mets 7-day OPS .818 and are hitting 22 points higher vs lefties than righties; Boomer was a bust in San Diego

Phillies ov6 -115 (+12)I said earlier that the Phillies bats should wake up for this one but you need 7 here which is a lot to ask; I'll stick with the very-much-safer moneyline; Phillies 7-day OPS down to .696

brewers un4 -110 (-7)Brewers hitting .404 last 10 vs L but a measley .210 last 10 vs R, and for the season their OPS is about 90 points lower vs R than L, AND their OPS on the road is about 70 points lower than at home; Lincecum was untouchable in his last until the 9th (by Cubs); Giants BP era under 4 and they've done solid work over the past week or so; Brewers have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their past 6 games--vs Webb was the only low figure...this list I'm looking at obviously doesn't include Saturday's result as the Brew-Crew just scored 2 off of Correia and friends; ump is Kulpa who's got an average-sized zone, judging by the numbers, though his K% is nice and high this season...helps a youngster like Lincecum; I just wonder if Timmy's gonna pull a Gallardo on us tomorrow...could happen...wouldn't that have been a great matchup??...Gallardo-Lincecum? Under, maybe (I had Gallardo rated a couple points lower than Lincecum, and Gally's rating will drop some more after Saturday's)--frig...still debating this game so that's why the rant:com: ...Onward Ho!...

nyy ov5.5 -125 (+8)crap...I came so close to playing this yesterday, at a sweet +105; impossible to call what Jurrjens will do...freaking impossible...his last start brought his rating up to above average but he might turn out to be better than that, yet...today's game will tell a lot, I think (though getting pounded by the Yankees can be forgiven, I suppose); might sneak this one in, somehow as Yanks price doesn't thrill me with Hughes' last 2 performances being nothing to write home about

twins un3.5 -125 (-20)Like I said earlier this week...Twins seem to score either 2 (and less) or 7, for most of August it's been the lower variety but they've scored 5 or more for 4 straight games now; Twins hitting .296 last 10 vs L (SP's faced included Washburn twice, H.Ramirez twice and Gabbard); I like this one despite everything telling me to back off, including the O's 3-day BP era of 10.80 (it's 5.18 already on the season); still considering how to play this matchup; Twins 7-day OPS .756

a's ov5 -115 (+11)Sonnanstine sucks; T'Bay's bullpen era is 5.35; A's are due for some scoring while in Tampa; A's 7-day OPS .878
D'Rays un4 -115 (-11)Haren has good numbers vs D'Rays and they were really slumping at the plate before help arrived in the form of DiNardo, Blanton, and the A's pen...they should revert back to form, I think, and plate maybe 2-5 (guess that's a 3.5 average so I like the under, here); D'Rays 7-day OPS .640 (ESPN...no Saturnday)

KC un4 -125 (-11)Carmona has good numbers vs Royals and has been pretty hot lately; Royals 7-day OPS .689 which isn't much lower than their OPS vs R

jays un4 -165 (-14)too pricey; Jays 7-day .597...maybe that's part of the cause...still won't tackle the game this way

m's ov5.5 -125 (+13)Padilla has been a joke AND has shitty numbers vs M's; this looks a bit better than the moneyline (-145), though maybe the runline (+105) is best if you (I) think that the M's will score 6 or more, which I do; still debating this one, too


That's the goods there.

Got the A's and Phillies so far.
Not sure how much to go contra Boomer.
Haven't touched that O's game yet, either.
Next few hours should be fun.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

on atl-Stl

on atl-Stl

--Reyes season whip 2.05, era 9.62
--Wainwright season whip 1.45, era 3.97
--Reyes last 3 whip 2.59, era 14.90
--Wainwright last 3 whip 1.05, era 1.64
--Cards only took 2 of the first 5 encounters with the Braves (this will be #7), one in which Wainwright started for StLou and the other in which Reyes started for the Braves
--Atl BP era 3.45
--Cards BP era 2.95
--Atl BP last 3 era 4.57
--Cards BP last 3 era 3.62
--Braves have lost 3 of the last 4 ump'ed by Reynolds
--Cards are 7-3 in the last 10 games ump'ed by Reynolds
--Braves hitting .257 last 10 vs R (Webb,Lincecum & Arroyo among the best SP's but also faced Petit, R.Ortiz, K.Wells, E.Ramirez & Owings)
--Cards hitting .331 last 10 vs L (SP's included Olsen, Lilly, Marshall, R.Hill and Capuano...some decent ones in there, particularly Lilly and Hill (Capuano struggling); they've had lotsa practice vs lefties lately, anyway)
---and what put the nail in the coffin and finally sold me on this play (nevermind the HUGE SP disparity, the better bullpen, home-field, and the better hitting numbers lately...):
---game #3 of a series (often the closer) is the Braves worst at 18-20 (they're above .500 for games #1 and #2...notably, they're also only 3-5 in game #4's, so they don't close out series very well
---game #3 of a series the Cards are 23-14, easily their best mark (under .500 in G#1 & G#2, but they're actually 5-0 in games #4, too, which is (further) evidence that they close out series very strongly)

Everything I've thrown out here suggests to me that my 62% call on the game might be a bit low. I'm not going to change it at this point in time (would need to raise it to 66%, anyway, to be a system pick at current lines) but I think I really like this play based on the above.
Going to play it like a system pick.
Hope Reyes is his usual self.
Wainwright has had a solid season and has been superb lately.

SOLD

to the man in the purple scarf...

a double dose of

CARDINALS

:00hour :00hour :00hour


:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

guess I'm not getting much sleep tonight...at least I've got Monday 'capped

the following lines aren't the best available but I have a bloated account presenting me with them so I'm checking things out this way:

return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(Mets,Phillies,*Cardinals*,Orioles,a's)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
gonna keep things real simple

Mets 69% (-175)+5...barely makes it

--giving the Mets a large edge pitching
--giving the Mets a larger edge hitting

-175 is 57.1 cents on the dollar
69 x 0.571 = 39.399
31 x -1......= -31
----------------------------------
...................8.399%

Kinda low but that's what you get for such an expensive line.
Worth trying due to the high probability.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Phillies 66% (-150)+6

--giving the Phillies a small edge pitching
--giving the Phillies a jumbo edge at the plate

-150 is 66.6 cents otd
(pleased to meet you...hope you guess my name)
66 x 0.666 = 43.956
34 x -1......= -34
---------------------------------
....................9.956%

Comparable to the Mets as there's a slightly higher ROI but also a slightly higher risk.
9.956-8.399 = 1.557 on ROI or
1.557/8.399 = an 18% increase in ROI (for Phils)
with a 3/31% = a 10% increase in risk.
A fairly balanced trade-off as I prefer my higher probabilities; I like the Mets play a touch better as they're the ones winning lately while the Phillies are in a bit of a funk.
Still worth a try.
I'd be surprised if Stauffer surprised.

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Cardinals adjusted to 66% based on new information (-160)+4...doesn't quite cut it by this line

--giving the Cards a jumbo edge pitching
--originally gave the Braves a decent-sized edge at the plate but that should be minimal for this encounter, if any edge at all
--see my earlier write-up about the game (above, or below if you're standing on your head)

-160 is 62.5 cents otd
66 x 0.625 = 41.25
34 x -1.......= -34
---------------------------------
....................7.25%

The 2 out of 3 chance to win is the attraction.
Line is kinda high against the Braves, though they have lost 4 of their past 5, and 7 of their past 10.
This play looks like gold but the Braves offense scares me a little.
Braves also 23-15 (.605) on the road to R.
Cards only 9-10 at home to L (47%) but they were at only 31% at home to L at the AS break so they've done better since (I tried to figure out what kinda record a 31% at the break would have been but can't do it...actually a 4-9 record would work, and kinda makes sense, which would mean that they've gone 5-1 vs L at home since the ASbreak.
Reyes is just getting worse and worse.
Wainwright truly starting to look like a former 1st-round draft pick.
Play looks solid.
Still gotta rank it behind Mets and Phils due to this assessment.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Orioles 71% (-180)+6
...highest price but highest call, too

--giving the O's a jumbo edge pitching
--giving the O's a small edge hitting for this matchup (they face the much easier SP, O's have hit Baker well before (in 1) AND the Twins 7-day and 10-day offensive numbers still aren't all that high (they will be if they keep things up for the next couple of days...could be tough, today)

-180 is a pitiful 55.5 cents otd
71 x 0.555 = 39.405
29 x -1......= -29
----------------------------------
...................10.405%

Finally got one over 10%.
Surprising it's with the highest line, but the probability is quite high so there's some value to be had here.
Runline looks less attractive due to 2 factors: O's poor hitting lately and O's dogshit bullpen.
Bedard seems to work 7, consistently, but isn't a complete game pitcher this year...sure would like to see it today.
Guess I have to rank this one tops, so far, as it's got the highest ROI and the highest probability.
Seems safe.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

a's 68% (-155)+7
--highest value indicator of the lot...lets see if that's worth anything...

--A's getting the largest pitching edge of all 5 discussed hereinwithin
--A's a decent sized edge at the plate as 7-day and 10-day numbers still favour the A's offensively, not to mention the fact that they'll be facing total fade material in both the 'Rays starter AND their bullpen, while the D'Rays have to contend with the quite consistent Haren...who's 1-0 this season vs the 'Rays (2.45 era) and 4-1 in 6 during his career (2.49 era)...in 3 starts at Tropicana (including 1 strong ND effort this season) he's 1-1, era 3.60 (includes a 0.90 whip due to no walks over the 20 IP...15 K's, though)

-155 is 64.5 cents otd
68 x 0.645 = 43.86
32 x -1......= -32
----------------------------------
...................11.86%


Highest ROI but I'd be giving up 3/29% =
10% on the risk while gaining only 1.455/10.405%=
14% on the ROI.
Actually not to bad a trade-off.
The slight gain ROI-over-risk-wise is negated by my preference for the higher calls, though all of the games discussed wherewithal have reasonably high probabilities, according to my funky numbers.
I think I'd rank this second best of the bunch.
A's to end the madness in Tampa (chit...they make my Jays look like garbage and then go in to loserville and drop the first 2?!?...2 that weren't even close?!?! (actually this is a 4-gamer, isn't it?...the A's DID get the win on Thursday).()()())
Looks rock-solid.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Ranking these 5, by these lines, I guess I go:
Orioles
a's
Mets
Phillies
Cardinals


I think I actually like the Cardinals more than the Phillies, mind you.
Very high calls and I'll be surpsied if at least 3 of these 5 don't come in.
Kinda need that to just to stay afloat, by these prices.
Orioles scare me a little--mostly because of the O's pen and not so much the way the Twins are hitting lately.
A's, Mets and Cards look to be the only ones I might ADD to (already on the lot).

6 hours until gametime...tempted just to stay up at this point in time.

Tough call...

:bed: :00x32 :weed:

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Thanks for your work and posts.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

No problem, DMDB.

Having a blast this month.

August Rocks!

Just hope I can survive today.
Paying some pretty high prices.

Think I'm done so I might as well post my picks...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

...but if you ask for a raise there's no surprise that they're giving none away...

...but if you ask for a raise there's no surprise that they're giving none away...

PLAYS

system picks

Mets -165 4.95/3
Phillies -142 2.84/2
Orioles -174 5.22/3
a's -150 4.5/3

other picks

Cardinals -151 4.53/3

totals

min@Balt un8 -111 1.11/1
twins under3.5 -125 1.25/1

2-teamer (system pick combo pack 1)
--Mets ml
--a's ml
+159
0.77/1.23

2-teamer (system pick combo pack 2)
--Phillies ml
--Orioles ml
+159
0.77/1.23

2-teamer (likely lefties winners)
--Astros ml
--mariners ml
+178
0.56/1

2-teamer (NL Homies)
--Cardinals ml
--Giants ml
+175
0.57/1

2-teamer (couple o' hot SP's vs teams struggling vs R)
--Giants ml
--Angels ml
+166
0.6/1

2-teamer (best chance road teams)
--a's ml
--indians ml
+188
0.53/1

2-teamer ('cuz it looks so good)
--a's over5
--Angels ml
+194
0.51/1

11-team IF bet
1.Angels -1.5 0.5/0.6
2.Mets -1.5 0.5/0.55
3.mariners over5.5 0.62/0.5
4.brewers under4 0.55/0.5
5.a's -1.5 0.6/0.63
6.yankees over5.5 0.75/0.6
7.Cardinals 1.2/0.75
8.Phillies -1.5 0.79/1.07
9.min-Balt un8 1.8/1.5
10.indians 1.4/1
11.D'Backs 1/1
0.5 to win max.8.7


Think I'll stop there.
Gonna let sleeping dogs lie, today.
Playing a load of parlays but don't have the patience for any more IF plays; I'm up on these suckers for August so why not increase my payout in a bunch of spots for some combos that look kinda sweet.
Mostly I need at least 3 of the big 5 (Mets,Phillies,Cardinals,Orioles,A's). My success today will greatly be measured by how many of them I can hit.
All seem likely.
System stat note of the day:
System calls at 66% and higher are 35-8 in August. That's 81.4% winners.
All 5 of my biggies fall into that category today so let's hope the good calls continue.
A 4-1 on them would do me just fine, today.
I'm done rambling.
GL

 

[spang]

It does look a bit chalky today and while I agree with most of your analysis today, I have to admit that cards like this one scare the hell out of me because I'm on much of the same today as you.

Thanks for providing consistantly the best thread in the baseball forum.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Having a rough time with (very expensive) system picks only going 2-2 so far.
A's got a pair early but didn't pile it on like expected.
Bedard...-cough--cough-...had a bit of a rough day.
At least the deeper analysis of the Cards game paid off.
Phillies was easy coin, too; woulda coulda that I had played that one heavier.

Going to be a minus today but I'll try to salvage something by maybe getting my runline figures for August both over .500 and into the plus:

adding:

mariners -1.5 +111 0.6/0.67


and I figure that system sides gotta go at least 3-2 today for 60%...pumping the Mets some...

adding:

2-team 2-day parlay
--Mets ml (Sun)
--Padres ml (Mon)
+128
0.88/1.12


That's about all the damage I can afford to take for today.

Will have Monday's numbers up shortly.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

no Young in the starting lineup for Texas.

gonna play this one the old-fashioned way...

adding:

mariners -139 2.08/1.5


That is absolutely all the damage I can afford.
May the evening give me grace.

GL