NFL Week 1

cooz3

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1.) Ne/Jets over 40.5

The NE offense has been much improved in the off-season at the wide out position. The passing game will be their strength this year or at least should be. I cant see the jet secondary being able to keep up with the passing attack personnel that NE will be bringing to the field. The burners on the outside will force the Jet secondary to compensate for the long ball while the middle of the field should be wide open for Welker, Watson and the receiver in 4 receiver sets. i like safety Rhodes for the Jets but their corners are a big ? mark. i don't foresee either dyson or barret being able to handle Stallworth or Moss so the Jets will have to scheme something up to help their corners, which again opens up big openings for the tight end and 3rd of 4th receiver.

my concern on offense for NE is the running game. I am not convinced Maroney can take the pounding of an every down back. i like Morris to get more touches than people expect. With the focus on the NE wide-outs there should be some opportunities for big runs for the Patriot backs especially in spread formations. I do like the linebackers for the Jets and they will hold their own here but as long as NE is able to run to the point of keeping the Jet defense honest so to speak then NE should get their chunks here and there and only help the effectiveness of the Pass attack.

jet offense: without harrison or Seymour i have to believe the Jets should get some effective drives going and put some points up. i have big question marks about the NE secondary and LB corp. There is no way samuel is in playing shape. although i do expect him to play and their safeties can get burned at times. i have no idea what to make of merriweather at this point since he is a rookie but you can expect him to make a few rookie mistakes here and there and when that occurs in the passing game big plays may likely ensue. i am not sure if wilson is playing as he was held out of most of the third pre-season game and the 4th game. In all I think they could give up some big plays I just don't know whether pennington has the arm strength to truly burn the secondary for long plays.

The linebackers are good but some have lost a step. they wont be a liability per Se because of the addition of Thomas and the football smarts this unit possess but they may have trouble keeping up with the athletic and quick backs and tight-ends and I look for Mangini to expose the lack of speed this unit may be prone to.

The defensive line is clearly the patriot D strength. they will put pressure on the QB thereby limiting the exposure of the weak links of the D. They are now without Seymour for first 6 weeks. although i am not sure his loss will be as profound as most would think it will no doubt be a negative. The Patriots will find ways to put pressure on pennigton in seymours absence but by doing so I believe they will open up their linebackers to having to cover offensive personnel they are not equipped for.

Mangini knows this team, personnel and philosophies so we have a coach who can scheme a little better than most for the New England defensive attack. Further, i have to believe that the NE passing attack can expose the jet secondary and make some long big plays which is always conducive to the over.

This number is low enough to allow these teams to have a bad quarter of offense and still hit it. with the offensive improvements for NE and the question marks I have about their defense, especially in the secondary. i like our chances.

Cooz
 

AR182

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cooz...

i am very bad on overs...was curious do you check weather before you place a wager on over ?

good luck.
 
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cooz3

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AR182...

excellent point..i always check the weather...the extended forecast calls for intermittent showers. These teams played in absolutely terrible conditions in Foxborough last year. Pouring and mud for field conditions and still scored 31 points. It was 7-6 at the half . NE still had 377 yards in offense but had 2 turn overs. That being said if the weather calls for heavy rains later in the week then I will re-evaluate the total and may have to but back the play. But if its just showers then i don't think that will have a huge impact.

i am also looking at the Jets as a possible dog play if that line keeps creeping up all week

best of luck

cooz
 

el JB

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what you need Overs for??

what you need Overs for??

murph...

it's unbelievable,i can never win an over bet even if i knew the score before the game started...so i stopped playing them...

man you do GREAT on sides...don't need OVERS
just share 'em SIDES.... pleaasse
 

Emersonboozer

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I have a hard time ever betting the over in a Pats game. Thier srength has always been great defensive game day strategy. Bellicheck loves long drives and Im not so sure Moss will make that big of an impact for NEs offense. Good luck
 

cooz3

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emersonboozer..

legit concerns but i don't think Moss alone would make that HUGE of an impact either. i believe its the combination of moss, stalworth, Welker and gafney etc. that will make the difference. further i am not convinced that Thomas is such a HUGE impact on defense that he will be able to mask the deficiencies in the secondary. all that said I cant dispute the fact that the pats like those balanced, long drives ..as long as they put up 7 at the end of those drives i will be ok . 40 is low enough total for me to take a chance on what is supposed to be a dominate offense and what i consider a somewhat banged up defense.

good luck

cooz
 

cooz3

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i just strolled in from after hours ...girl is not happy to say the least..lol

1-0
cooz
 
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