week #2 plays & info....

[AR182]

14-6

penn. st.-14(130)...

i played this at 15 & bought it down. think this line will go up (pinnacle has it at 16)...

this is a big revenge game for psu....nd. won last year 41-17.

nd has a rookie qb making his first start on the road v.s an agressive, fast defense.think psu will capitalize on nd's slow defense with their quality receivers.

may have more info on this game as the week progresses but wanted to post this before the line goes any higher.

good luck.

 

[#cruncher]

Great start to the season AR!

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Did you think that you'd be laying 14 in this game?

ND will get their QB issues worked out as all three are good QB's but their oline was atrocious and that's not something that's fixed overnight. They couldn't pick up a blitz and that was without the crowd noise they're facing this weekend. Ugh

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

good luck Al

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it.

in case anybody is interested here is a trend supporting the penn. st. play that i previously posted.......


play on - home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (penn st.) - off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, with 4+ more total starters returning than opponent.

ats record is....25-4 since 1992.....86.2%.

the average line posted in these games was..... team favored by 14.5.

the average score in these games was...team 36....opponent 13.7.

the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15....55.6% of all games.

the situation's record this season is....0-0.

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...2-0.

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....7-2.

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is....19-3.

good luck.

 

[freelancc]

in case anybody is interested here is a trend supporting the penn. st. play that i previously posted.......

if you are on it, it's worth a look..

besides... we all saw what Georgia Tech did to them..:mj07:

 

[AR182]

i'm reposting this becuase it still may be helpful...

returning starters and QB's

Air force O= 4, D= 6 (10 w/ Qb) - Meaning Air Force has 4 returning starters on offense, 6 returning starters on defense, total of 10 returning starters, with returning starting Qb.

Air Force O= 4, D= 6 (10 w/ Qb)
Ala O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ Qb)
Arz O= 8, D= 10 (18 w/ Qb)
Arz St O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
Akron O= 4, D= 8 (12 w/ no Qb)
Army O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ no Qb)
Ark O= 6, D= 6 (12 w/ Qb)
Ark St O= 7, D= 5 (12 w/ Qb)
Auburn O= 4, D= 7 (11 w/ Qb)

Ball St O= 7, D= 5 (12 w/ Qb)
Baylor O= 4, D= 6 (10 w/ no Qb)
BC O= 7, D= 9 (16 w/ Qb)
Boise St O= 5, D= 6 (11 w/ no Qb)
Bowl Grn O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ Qb)
Buff O= 8, D= 8 (16 w/ Qb)
Byu O= 6, D= 6 (12 w/ no Qb)

Cal O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)
Cent Mich O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
Cent Flor O= 8, D= 8 (16 w/ no Qb)
Cincy O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ no Qb)
Clem O= 3, D= 7 (10 w/ no Qb) --- ONLY 3 starters returning on Offense (WR, LT, TB)
Colo O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ no Qb)
Colo St O= 8, D= 9 (17 w/ Qb)
UConn O= 8, D= 6 (14 w/ no Qb)

Duke O= 11, D= 5 (16 w/ Qb) --- 11 starters returning on Offense

E Caro O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ no Qb)
E Mich O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ Qb)

Flor Atl O= 7, D= 10 (17 w/ no Qb)
Flor Int O=8, D=6 (14 w/ no Qb)
Flor O= 5, D= 1 (6 w/ no Qb) --- ONLY 1 starter returning on Defense (SS)
Flor St O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ Qb)
Frsno St O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)

Geo O= 7, D= 3 (10 w/ Qb) --- ONLY 3 starters returning on Defense (DT, CB, SS)
Geo Tech O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ no Qb)

Hawaii O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ Qb)
Houst O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ no Qb)

Idaho O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ no Qb)
ILL O= 6, D= 9 (15 w/ Qb)
Indy O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ Qb)
Iowa O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ no Qb)
Iowa St O= 4, D= 5 (9 w/ Qb)

Kansas O= 5, D= 6 (11 w/ no Qb)
Kan St O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)
Kent St O= 8, D= 9 (17 w/ Qb)
Kentucky O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ Qb)

La Tech O= 6, D= 10 (16 w/ Qb)
La Monroe O= 10, D= 8 (18 w/ Qb)
La Laf O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ no Qb)
Louisv O= 7, D= 4 (11 w/ Qb)
Lsu O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ no Qb)

Marshall O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
Maryland O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ no Qb)
Memph O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
Mia O= 9, D= 7 (16 w/ Qb)
Mia Oh O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)
Mich O= 6, D= 4 (10 w/ Qb)
Mich St O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ no Qb)
Mid Tenn O= 5, D= 6 (11 w/ no Qb)
Minny O= 6, D= 9 (15 w/ no Qb)
Miss O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ no Qb)
Miss St O= 9, D= 5 (14 w/ Qb)
Missouri O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ Qb)

Navy O= 8, D= 2 (10 w/ Qb)
Neb O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ no Qb)
Nev O= 5, D= 7 (12 w/ no Qb)
N Mex O= 8, D= 10 (18 w/ Qb)
N Mex St O= 9, D= 9 (18 w/ Qb)
N Caro O= 5, D= 5 (10 w/ Qb)
N Caro St O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
N ILL O= 6, D= 6 (12 w/ no Qb)
N TX O= 4, D= 10 (14 w/ no Qb)
Nwstrn O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ Qb)
N Dame O= 4, D= 5 (9 w/ no Qb)

Ohio U O= 5, D= 5 (10 w/ no Qb)
Ohio St O= 5, D= 5 (10 w/ no Qb)
Okla O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ no Qb)
Okla St O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ Qb)
Ore O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
Ore St O= 7, D= 8 (15 w/ no Qb)

Penn St O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
Pitt O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ no Qb)
Purd O= 9, D= 9 (18 w/ Qb)

Rice O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
Rutgers O= 7, D= 6 (13 w/ Qb)

Sdg St O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ no Qb)
San Jose St O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ Qb)
S Caro O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ Qb)
S Flor O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ Qb)
S Miss O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ Qb)
Smu O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ no Qb)
Stan O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ no Qb)
Syr O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ no Qb)

Tcu O= 4, D= 9 (13 w/ no Qb)
Temple O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ no Qb)
Tenn O= 6, D= 5 (11 w/ Qb)
TX O= 7, D= 7 (14 w/ Qb)
TX A&M O= 8, D= 6 (14 w/ Qb)
TX Tech O= 4, D= 5 (9 w/ Qb)
Toledo O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ Qb)
Troy St O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ Qb)
Tulane O= 5, D= 8 (13 w/ no Qb)
Tulsa O= 3, D= 6 (9 w/ Qb) --- ONLY 3 returning starters on Offense (QB, TE, RG)

Uab O= 4, D= 4 (8 w/ no Qb)
Ucf O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ no Qb)
Ucla O= 10, D= 10 (20 w/ no Qb)
Unlv O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ no Qb)
Usc O= 5, D= 10 (15 w/ Qb)
Utep O= 7, D= 3 (10 w/ no Qb)
Ut O= 9, D= 5 (14 w/ no Qb)
Ut St O= 6, D= 8 (14 w/ no Qb)

Vandy O= 8, D= 8 (16 w/ Qb)
Va O= 8, D= 10 (18 w/ Qb)
Va Tech O= 8, D= 8 (16 w/ Qb)

Wake For O= 8, D= 5 (13 w/ Qb)
Wash O= 6, D= 6 (12 w/ no Qb)
Wash St O= 7, D= 5 (12 w/ Qb)
W Mich O= 8, D= 7 (15 w/ no Qb)
W Va O= 6, D= 7 (13 w/ Qb)
Wisc O= 9, D= 7 (16 w/ no Qb)
Wyo O= 7, D= 5 (12 w/ Qb)

 

[AR182]

here is another play i wanted to post early....

rutgers -14(120)....

i think rutgers has the speed & discipline to contain navy's rushing attack. last year ru held navy to 113 rushing yards, but the navy starting qb was got hurt in that game.i also like that navy has an inexperienced offensive line.

on the other side of the ball, i think with teel having an extra year of experience & rutgers offensive line line outweighing the navy defensive line, rice should be able to pound the ball at navy's inexperienced defense(returning 3 starters).

here is a trend supporting the play....

play on - home favorites (rutgers) - after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game.

ats record is....98-51 since 1992.....66%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....17-7...70%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is...32-16....66.6%


good luck.

 

[CWood97]

Jimmy Clausen getting his first start Sat night AR.

Might want to double down on that bet (great get at 14, btw)

 

[AR182]

adding....

nw-7(130)....

these 2 played last year at nevada (nevada won 31-21) but nw was playing without their starting qb(nw turned the ball over 5 times) & was dealing with the emotional loss of their coach.

this year the game is at nw & they will have their starting qb, while nevada will be continuing to break in a new qb.last year without a passing threat, nw ran for 246 yds. at 6.6 per carry, while holding nevada to 3.5 yds. per carry.

i see nw totally controlling this game.

a trend supporting this play...

play on - home favorites (nw) - after shutting out their last opponent against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.

ats record is....39-11 since 1992.....78%.

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...6-0.

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....8-1.

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is...24-7.


good luck.

 

[AR182]

adding....

ok. st -22....

this is ok st's home opener & i think they will take out last week's loss on fau.fla. atl. is coming off their huge lconference win last week vs. mid. tenn. st., & their coach usually doesn't put much emphisis on out of conference games. over the last 2 seasons fau has been outscored in out of conference games by a combined score of 192-20 by clemson, kansas st., so. carolina, & ok. st.

i think the class difference will show in this game.

a trend supporting this play...

play on - home favorites of 21.5 or more points (ok st.) - with 8 offensive starters returning.

ats record is....37-9 over the last 5 seasons.....80.4%.

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is....46-0 over the last 5 seasons.

the average line posted in these games was.... team favored by 27.7

the average score in these games was...team 47.2...opponent 9.3.

the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 29....63% of all games.

the situation's record this season is: (2-1).

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is....11-3.

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is...78-47.

good luck.

 

[Hooks]

AR, not to be a smart ass, but it looks like Ok.St. has only 7 off. starters returning :shrug:

 

[ststrl]

AR,

Think PSU is still a quality play at -17 (TheGreek.com)?

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

gl this week bud :toast:

 

[thom24ad]

Thanks for the post...I'm on PSU as well...And I liked what you had to say about Rutgers I'm most likely going tail you on that one...Any thoughts on Mich/Or this weekend, IMO its not a great play because its too hard to tell if Mich will show up or not...I'm thinking of doing something small fading joe public...I'm just curious to see what your opinion is...

Thanks again AR...

 

[AR182]

AR,

Think PSU is still a quality play at -17 (TheGreek.com)?

ststrl...

i really don't like to give advice on what others should bet. however, i think there are still factors that favor psu at that price. nd is starting a freshman qb on the road in his first start,i think nd won't be able to cover the psu receivers, & i think psu's defense is better than gt's defense.

if i was going to play it at 17, i would buy the 1/2 point to get it at 16.5.

good luck.

 

[AR182]

Thanks for the post...I'm on PSU as well...And I liked what you had to say about Rutgers I'm most likely going tail you on that one...Any thoughts on Mich/Or this weekend, IMO its not a great play because its too hard to tell if Mich will show up or not...I'm thinking of doing something small fading joe public...I'm just curious to see what your opinion is...

Thanks again AR...

hey thom..

i like michigan...but not sure yet.

good luck.

 

[Sam Bone]

AR182

Nice start to the year last week. Good luck this week. Like your plays so far this week. Nice job grabbing those early lines.

 

[ststrl]

ststrl...

i really don't like to give advice on what others should bet. however, i think there are still factors that favor psu at that price. nd is starting a freshman qb on the road in his first start,i think nd won't be able to cover the psu receivers, & i think psu's defense is better than gt's defense.

if i was going to play it at 17, i would buy the 1/2 point to get it at 16.5.

good luck.

Thanks AR, and I appreciate your insight. I realize that this is not a forum for people to tell others what they ?should? do, rather what they like for themselves.

That being said I agree with you on the .5 point buy. Frosh QB going to arguably one of the toughest spots to play in the country against one of the best D?s in the country (definitely top DB?s). I think the way that PSU covers this one is to score at least one D TD off of a Clausen mistake. Going to sit back for a few days to see if the public starts taking ND +17 so that maybe I can get PSU -16.5 w/o having to buy the .5. Thanks for all of your insight AR:clap:

 

[AR182]

adding...


so. miss.+11...

i got this at this yesterday...i now see 10.5 as the line & pinnacle has it at 10.

i think the dog is worth a shot in this game for a few reasons...

so. miss. may be able to run on ut's defense, while ut hasn't shown,for over a year that they can consistently run the ball effectively.

ut is in a calif./ fla. sandwich...& last year ut barely beat af the week before fla.

tenn. is 1-9 ats as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons....& 7-19 in their last 26 home games.


good luck.