CFB YTD -32.95 units
USF/WVU
Not sure which one of WVU's wins that I'm supposed to be impressed by - down to Marshall for most of the 1st half - misleading final against Terps - and ECU had been through the grinder to start the season before bowing without a fight lw - thing is, bettors are so used to Rodriguez and the 'Neers beating people w/ bball scores that they will blindly follow them into battle no matter what the line is (and that philosophy probably works over time, oddly enough - 3-0-1 this year)
But they run into a real team this week, and IMO the key difference will be on the defensive side of the ball - 'Neers talking about a defensive resurrection but I'm not buying it, and I think they will struggle yet again with Grothe and the USF O - Bulls' D has proven they can throttle the multi-dimensional attack of WV in Morgantown so no reason for me to believe it can't happen again - Noel Devine is a concern but the speedy Bull D should be able to slow him down a bit
Tough trip for all who travel to USF as for most it's the longest trip they will take all year - short week for WVU, who also have played an extra game
Understand that 'Neers were a little banged up ly, but I also think this is a better USF team this time around, certainly more confident - doesn't hurt that Joe Pub will come screaming with a rallying cry of "Revenge!", therefore the inflated line on the fave - think the line should be closer to P if not the Bulls being the fave
Ill/PSU
2 years ago the Nittany Lions rolled into Illinois and thumped the home team 63-10 - but ly in Happy Valley, the Fightin' Illini were much more competitive, holding near 2-1 advantages in total yards and FD's but falling 26-12 in large part to 2 DEF/ST touchdowns - well we're back in Champagne and Ill is a much improved team, while PSU has dropped a couple of notches IMO - cupcake non-conf schedule did the Lions no favors lw as they continued their losing streak to UM - now they go back on the road again against a team that is foaming at the mouth awaiting their arrival - understand that with Zook a bettor takes a risk that bad calls, TO's, and bad game management in general will get the better of them, but Ill is simply the more talented team, they are at home, and are the slight dog seeking a big win and a bit of revenge - expect a big crowd and an electric atmosphere, even for the early start, and feel the Illini have the confidence needed to pull out a big win, potentially by DD's - will be risking at least 10 units on this one, will wait and monitor line movement before deciding
Back with more as time permits and, as always, good luck no matter which sides you choose
LA Burns
