Friday September 28th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Friday September 28th 2007

yesterday: very funny
September: just holding on
ml
rl
totals
parlays & IFs
system picks were great April-August (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 Thursday; 55-33 in September (62.5%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

stl 54% (+100)+4
Phil 69 (-236)-2 RL 55 (-109)+2
cubs 54 (-125)-2
Mets 71 (-201)+4 RL 56 (+101)+6
Col 62 (-123)+6
Hou 54 (-103)+3
sd 51 (Maddux-Capuano)
sf 57 (+107)+8
Bost 55 (Matsuzaka-Slowey)
nyy 63 (-155)+2
Tor 70 (-155)+9 RL 56 (+125)+11
clev 65 (-191)-1 RL 51 (-117)-3
Cws 54 (-120)-1
Oak 52 (+107)+3
tex 51 (+112)+3

system totals

atl@Hou ov10 80% (+101)+30 --ump N/A
det@Cws un9 68 (+101)+18 --ump N/A
laa@Oak un8 68 (-105)+16 --ump N/A


Did you see the lineup that the Yankees were fielding Thursday? About what I expected and the D'Rays still can't muster enough to outscore them, even with a solid outting by Kazmir. Looks like Gallardo couldn?t pitch around the shitty defense behind him so that one is down the drain, too. And, finally, I officially think the Mets don't stand one hope in hell come the playoffs, whether they're in or not?I say NOT?let's see some good competition in the playoffs and keep the losers on the golf course where they belong. Take these numbers with a grain of salt as they're not working over this final week. I'm undecided whether or not to even bother 'capping Saturday and Sunday or to just try to use some better judgement, which probably won't work for me anyways as that's what I think I've been trying to do. I'm still up some for September, some-freakin'-how, so my bets before the playoffs will be small or nonexistent. I was already stupid enough to lay coin on the Jays for Friday (oh, yeah?playing the D'Rays?maybe a chance, there) and I'm also trying that over in Houston?totals don't come rated much higher than I've got that one at; watch Albers pull a Pineiro.

You gotta be sick of reading this shit because I'm getting real sick of producing it.
I might as well finish off the season. It has been profitable but not to the extent that I was hoping for, mostly due to this horrid finish in September, but also due to a slow start in April; I'm making copious mental notes of this for next season.

Sorry it's been so disappointing lately.
Both in the picks and in the lack of strong arguments.
I'm too burned out.
Two thousand one hundred and thirty games is a lot to try to evaluate.
13-15 per week in the NFL sounds very appealing at this state of mind.
Try me there; still not much discussion but I think I'm on the right tracks, so far.

Wow?Rockies just plated 3. I might actually hit this one?whoopee!

Will post what's played.
Make money and fade.

GL

 

[IE]

While Ben Sheets won't get a start Friday, he said he would be available to throw an inning out of the pen if needed.

Sheets still had some soreness in his hamstring while throwing Thursday, but he thinks he can contribute.



====





The Brewers just made it official. Left-hander Chris Capuano is starting against San Diego tomorrow, not Ben Sheets.

Is anyone surprised? If you are, you haven't been paying attention.

So, Sheets will miss his last two starts of the season with a strained left hamstring. The Brewers have faced a lot of obstacles down the stretch and this is one more.

Sheets already missed six weeks with a finger injury, during which the Brewers went 15-26.

Capuano (5-12, 5.09) started in place of Sheets last Sunday and pitched five solid innings (one run) in the "Umpiregate" game the Brewers finally lost.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Yeah...I knew that Sheets was a longshot to go but I didn't really have any other info to go by, and obviously didn't check the right sources (I was kinda turned off by that game immediately, so I didn't dig too deep).

Let me do a Capuano 'cap and add it in.
Should take a couple minutes.

Thanks for the headsup.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in case you come back...do you know who's going in that Twins-Bosox game? Do I have that one right? I kind of like the Twins to make a go of it there as Slowey has looked quite sharp his past few. Dice-K is maybe a number 4 starter for the Sox in the playoffs; chit...I'd use Clay Bucholz before I'd use Matsuzaka. I dunno...guess he had his share of solid games but he sure seemed to have his share of crappy ones, too, especially at home.

Baseball has been berry berry inconsistent to me.

 

[IE]

both offical sites have,

Coming up: The Twins and Red Sox will meet up for the second of four contest on Friday night in a 6:05 p.m. CT start. It will be a duel of two rookies as Twins right-hander Kevin Slowey (4-0, 4.57) and Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (14-12, 4.48) each make their final regular-season start.

 

[IE]

Does the Buch stop here? Still no word from Francona on exactly how top prospect Clay Buchholz fits in -- or if he fits in -- to the team's October pitching plans. In fact, the manager was non-committal when asked if there were plans to get Buchholz in one of the remaining regular-season games.

"I'm going to stay with the mantra of what we're doing," Francona said. "If you see him pitch, he's in the game and then we'll talk about how well he pitched or whatever. But there's some things, and I think everybody is aware of the structure that we're aware of and trying to adhere to ... win every game, and at the same time realize the future of this young man. That's kind of where we're at."

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks a lot, IE.

Tempted to try the Twins if it opens +140 or higher.
Could happen, as I don't imagine that Slowey will command much respect.
Twins looked good against Cy Beckett, so why not?
Oh, yeah...my record over the past 4 days!:com:

Maybe at +157 or better.

thanks again

 

[IE]

slowey coming off best start of the season...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=sloweke01&t=p


think game comes down to the bullpens again..

see tomorrow how line comes out ...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks again

That baseball-reference website looks like it might be interesting. I've already got a number of links in my faves, concerning baseball, but I'll have to dig through this site a bit to see if there's anything that I can use in the future.

Feeling information overkill currently.
Maybe that's been my problem. Not keeping things simple.

'Course...how much simpler can it get, for me, then to play the highest calls on the board, or at least those with apparent value? Brewers and Mets two days in a row. Obviously I didn't learn my lesson after getting kicked in the head Wednesday. Keeping it simple also has to include keeping away from fading teams. I guess the D'Rays fall into that category, too ('course...they faded a long time ago); makes my Thursday picks look like total garbage in hindsight. Losing picks are always, I suppose, total garbage in hindsight.

Might stick with my 2 calls for Friday and leave it at that (Jays and over in Houston).
I feel like a total square, right now.
Investing too much time on this to be blowing my winnings on freakin' stupid late-season bets.
I think I could gripe forever, tonight, so I best get my ass out of here.

Wish I had more to offer.
Maybe some thoughts...

I don't think I'd touch the Mets oir Brewers with a ten-foot pole today. Brewers look to be losers, by my system call, and the Mets DO NOT deserve to make the post-season the way they have been playing for the past week or so. A total mismatch, again, in this Perez-Kim matchup, but Kim can be tough if he can actually find the strike zone while the Marlins can hit lefties pretty well. Teams really seem to be bringing their "A" game against the Mets, too. Phillies should take their game as Hamels returned to solid form in his second back off the DL; Redding can be tough but I don't think as tough as the Philliesticks will be in this matchup; Phils have earned a tie for the AL East and I think that they might finish off the season with 3 more wins which would be enough if the Mets don't sweep, which seems extremely likely as they've looked like shit lately and they might need to toss Pelfrey or some other loser out there for one of these games. Indians should get Sabathia one more victory to maybe get him challenging Josh for the Cy Young, but the price is too high for a team that has already clinched; still, Indians look to be playing for the best record in the AL, which could mean a more concerted effort in these final games with the Royals...not much competition there so why not try to sweep and maybe gain home-field throughout the AL games.

...needed a breather...

Rockies are about as hot as they come, currently. A play against them on Friday would seem a bit foolish, especially with the trouble that the D'Backs have hit lefties (though not much trouble lately). Rox are tempting but I think I might pass on that one as it's quite a price to pay going AGAINST Webb.

Cubs pitching won't get them too far in the playoffs but they look like they'll be in with the Brewers flubbing away their season over the past couple of days. Can't play either of these NL Central team currently. Arroyo has looked decent and will give his club a chance; Reds still have their lineup from a month ago and I'd probably try the Reds as they've hit Carlos well before. For the Brewers, they face a suddenly-cold Maddux and a suddenly hot group of Padresticks; Capuano may keep his team in the game, with another strong effort, but the Brewers look like a team to keep away from right now--that loss with stud Gallardo totally turns me off these guys for the remainder of the schedule. I checked some of the scoring that the Padres did and was kind of surprised to see that, despite 5 errors by the Brewers, they only got 2 unearned off of Gallardo out of the 5 they scored off him; he did walk only 1 and stike out 7 over 5 innings--not a horrid night--but that 4-spot the Padres got in the 3rd was obviously too much for the unspirited Brewers bats to overcome. Enough on these 2 sorry teams...like I say, neither will survive too long in the playoffs.

Giants might be worth a shot, as Correia looks rock-solid as a starter and the Dodgers appear to be a team already packing things in. Giants are hitting some lately, too, look to have Bonds back, etc. etc....I just have trouble backing the G-Men, at least this season (not expecting much in '08, either, with Bonds to be gone with not much offense remaining; their starting pitching will keep them in games, at least (Cain,Zito,Lowry,Lincecum).

Twins look worth a shot, with Slowey. My only concern is that the Bosox still have the Yanks on their heels (they still need 1 more victory to clinch the East, don't they?) so they should be anxious to take this one. Likely a pass for me as if I can't win playing system calls of 71 and 74% then how can I expect to hit a 45% call?

Jays should get the win as they've got a mismatch at SP and in the bullpen. Bats are close to even for this one but the D'Rays recent offensive numbers are worse than the Jays recent numbers. This might be my only side for Friday; just can't be bothered dropping too much today.

White Sox are tempting as Vazquez is finishing the year quite strong, while the Chisox hit lefties a little better than they hit righties. Still, the Tigers looks reasonable at this point in the season and Rogers has had some good starts since coming off the DL about a month ago, so this game is a real tough call. Chisox either put up 6-10 or else they get 1 or 2; a very tough team to back. The under is also tempting for that game.

A's were a quick, passing thought, but they don't look to be finishing the year very strong. Under is a possibility but Haren hasn't been that great for the past 3-5 weeks so I don't know about counting on him.

Rangers are another temptation. Weaver is totally stinking up the stadiums again like he did early in the season while the Rangers are winning their share of games down the stretch. Volquez isn't quite as bad as Weaver seems to be, but I wouldn't mortgage anything to back him today.


Didn't cover all the games but these are my thoughts on most of Friday's contests. I didn't include any numbers, which I've been doing all season in my posts, but I have still been relying on them and, either way, they don't seem to be providing me with the answers that I currently need. Tonight I should be 'capping Saturday's games but I just don't have it in me; I'll either do it tomorrow (probably) or else just use the force over the next couple of days.
...groan...:com: ...I might as well 'cap them, as best as I can, to complete what I started (for a change). Maybe I'll just keep the 'caps simple instead of trying to make too many key adjustments such as recent hitting, pitching numbers vs opponent, and a few other areas that I've been thinking were crucial to make adjustments for. Not helping. A week ago I was looking at 60% correct calls on all games for September, but this past week has resulted in pretty crappy stats so that number will end at, likely, a season-high month of 59%ish. Still not bad for ALL GAMES but the key ones (mostly "system picks") were unsympatheticly pathetic this month. Without my strong month on totals, for September, I'd be in the red. Still might get there before the month is out, if I'm not careful. Looks like September will be my first losing month on the moneyline.:com:

Enough about me.
How's the weather there?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Turn off your mind, relax and float downstream. It is not dying. It is not dying.

Turn off your mind, relax and float downstream. It is not dying. It is not dying.

PLAYS

Phillies -1.5 -112 0.89/0.8
Blue Jays -155 1.55/1

atl@Hou ov10 +101 1/1.01


Going to stop right there. As you can see I added only the Phillies play to my original selections. I've also got them parlayed with the Steelers for Sunday, which I think is the safest moneyline play, at least, for NFL week 4; my only "best bet" so far, anyway (at -5.5).

To tell you the truth, I'll be dissatisfied by anything less than a 3-0 today. Maybe a 2-1 would be tolerable, if that includes a win by my guys here in T.O.

Going to try to do a solid 'cap for Saturday's games, I think. The adjustements that I've been making seem crucial and don't take that much time as I've been getting a lot of practice this season. I think that Friday's results will be a key ingredient to any 'cap for Saturday's games, so I might not have the numbers up until close to midnight. I don't care so much what happens with Friday's games, but my goal is to call at least 20 of the 30 games correct for the weekend; 10-5 days have been very common, for me, so I don't think that 66.6% is an unreasonable goal. My plays will likely be small but you'd think that I could find something worth playing for the 30 final regular season games.

Jeez?it seems like I can just go on and on in these damn posts.
I hope it's not a bitch to read.
Probably is lately, but my spirits are low so I'm having difficulty keeping this entertaining.

Watch out for me in the playoffs.
I generally kick ass in all sports during the playoffs.
Hope I didn't just jinx myself.

See you with a better post tomorrow; I won't get my ass kicked, for a change, on Friday, so I should be in a better frame of mind.

On and on and on anon?

GL


They can't kill me no more
I don't know what to say 'cause it's lies.

(Down, Lies)


title: ((Beatles, Tomorrow Never Knows))


:weed:
(finally...gone all day without)
:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:bed:

 

[Sonny Palermo]

X-trap,
Found your posts 2-3 weeks ago while surfin around, very interesting, and a lot of hard work and dedication; very nice.
Just a tip/thought for you - what works well during the season when competition is alive will, most of the time, not work late season when different motivations factor in - trying out new players, staying with pitchers longer to rest pens, apathy, quitting, etc.
Even teams that ARE going to the post season play differently - resting starters, less motivation to win, etc.

The system may not be the problem - it may be timing.
Think about a cut off date, one that shuts you down before additional factors become prevalent and skew season long productive results (not to mention account balance.)

Shut down 1 sport, switch efforts to another where team's effort and desite to win is still maximized.

In short, for end of season play,
"Lay down all thoughts, surrender to the void."

 

[nedp]

EX....hang in there....

EX....hang in there....

yea Man....hang in there....

come on down to Fayetteville for N Texas sat nite...we'll tailgate an then walk to the stadiium....

my guys pulled some early patches so there are some Skunk Buds roundhear....

you'd like it....always nice come Octoberfest....

AAIIIIEEEEEEEEEE

Rebuilding America.....One Hurricane at a Time....

keep the picks coming.....I just been flipping your picks this week....cashemDano...

Nedp

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks for the words, guys

and sonny, that all sounds like good advice and I'm looking to change my focus to football. Still, there's 30 games this weekend that I'm going to try to find some goodies for. Then another, minimum, 28 playoff games to be had. Baseball I know best of the 4 major team sports so I'm goin' a huntin' this postseason.

again, I appreciate the comments.

GL

P.S. Sonny...all those factors you mentioned I AM actually trying to account for...just getting some bad breaks this week, it seems. Still, my focus has shifted a lot to football. Kind of sad the MLB season is coming to a close.

Rock n' Roll!

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

YES!

F#$ the Mets!!!

:142smilie

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I guess that the Brewers season comes down to tonight's game.
I think the Cubs now clinch if the Brewers lose, don't they?
Would mean a totally meaningless game for the Cubs tomorrow.
Would sure like to see a line.

 

[Sonny Palermo]

X,
You're welcome. I cut off early in most sports, unless I see a great fit for some profile I have been sucessful with.
Reason being basic math:
let's say in a normal game I am capping based on X number of factors. In the late season I am trying to 'cap factoring x + additional factors.
The less to consider, the easier to cap, just simple math.

But more importantly . . .
YES!!!!
F*K the mets!!!!!!!
I've written magazine columns about it for years, but since you don't know me, I'll give ya some background.
In grade school, there was a Sept/Oct I used to run home from Catholic school, racing to catch the rest of the World Series games (they used to play afternoon weekday games back then.)
I actually said "Hail Mary's" when Boog was up, asking for a homer.
My heart was broken that fall, and like a kid bit by a dog I never forgot that pain.
So, yes,
F*K THE METS!!!
F*K THE METS!!!
F, F, F, THE METS!!!
Even 38 years removed it STILL feels good . . .