Week 4

[Happy Hippo]

First of all, I am not claiming to know anything about football. Maybe I will learn something this season, but I mainly watch it as entertainment. I was bored at work and decided to devise some sort of totals system, similar (although truthfully way less complex) to what I use in the NBA.

I will not be posting any of these picks in that other "contest" we have going on, but will only be taking sides there, as not to taint what might be a good thing...we'll see. I will keep a separate record in order to document how this system does. I am playing these totals VERY small, I will be honest. Anyway, I hope this thread is buried deep on page 2 or 3 by Sunday! Here goes nothing...


0-0

Baltimore-Cleveland OVER 39.5
KC-San Diego UNDER 39.5
Oakland-Miami OVER 41.5
Philly-Giants OVER 47.5
Houston-Atlanta UNDER 38.5
GB-Minnesota UNDER 38
NE-Cinci UNDER 52.5


Good luck everyone!

 

[Agent 0659]

That Giants/Philly over sure looks like the steal of the century doesn't it? :nono:

I got it at 41.

GL

 

[hawkeye]

Totlas are Us! Your are great in Pro Bakets totals why no Football? GL Like the Philly over and NE over but am leaning toward the under in Oakland game.

 

[THE KOD]

Happy

could you explain the system

thanks

 

[Happy Hippo]

Thanks guys...I'll give it a shot.

Scott - the system involves adjusted defensive and offensive averages based on standard deviation...the basketball system is more complex due to the volume of games played-there are a lot more numbers to base the stats on. But I'll see how it works out for football.


Here is something that might be mildly interesting to some people. Again using standard deviation I have calculated the teams who are performing the best statistically right now...this is based upon the following offensive and defensive categories:

TOTAL POINTS, YARDS/PLAY, FIRST DOWNS, RUSHING ATTEMPTS, RUSHING YARDS, YARDS/RUSH, PASSING ATTEMPTS, PASSING YARDS, YARDS/PASS, TOTAL YARDS, TIME OF POSSESSION, TURNOVERS, PENALTIES

1) New England
2) Pittsburgh
3) Denver
4) Indianapolis
5) Dallas
6) Philadelphia
7) Baltimore
8) Arizona
9) Jacksonville
10) Washington
11) Tennessee
12) Carolina
13) Miami
14) Tampa Bay
15) Detroit
16) Houston
17) Cincinnati
18) St. Louis
19) NY Giants
20) Atlanta
21) Minnesota
22) Kansas City
23) Seattle
24) Cleveland
25) Oakland
26) San Diego
27) New Orleans
28) Green Bay
29) Chicago
30) San Francisco
31) NY Jets
32) Buffalo


(What is the most interesting to me is that a team like GB who is 3-0 is actually performing worse than NO who is 0-3...of course this doesn't take into account any coaching or other situations, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of these poorer performing teams soon start to waiver...of course this is only after 3 games, so these stats are not extremely valuable right now.)

 

[dunclock]

Real busy in the new job Jess:shrug: :mj07:

Good luck with your "system":scared

 

[smurphy]

I hope this thread is buried deep on page 2 or 3 by Sunday!

Not a chance. Get used to this:

:bump:

And I hope this formula pans out.:mj09:

 

[THE KOD]

thanks for the info.

Its almost like a system right from Billy Blastoff's world of sports wagering.

Lets see how it pans out.

 

[Agent 0659]

Real busy in the new job Jess:shrug: :mj07:

Good luck with your "system":scared

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

 

[smurphy]

:bump: :mj23:

 

[Agent 0659]

:bump: :mj23:

:SIB :SIB :SIB

 

[Agent 0659]

:00x20 :00x20 :00x20 :00x20