NLDS - Rockies vs Phillies

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Game #1

Francis @ Hamels

Phillies 64% (N/A)

under 9 51%


Jeff Francis tossed a good game against the Phillies back in 2005, but was pummelled in both his meetings with Philly this season, one at home and one on the road. Francis was mediocre in his last '07 regular season start, losing to the D'Backs. I have the Rockies bullpen rated a 71; they have a pretty good closer in Corpas.

Hamels will be making his first ever start against the Rockies. He's made 3 starts since returning from the DL; the first was rough for him but he has been sensational over his past 2 starts. Hamels was 8-2 with a 3.24 era at home this season. I have the Phillies bullpen rated a 66; arguably one of the worst pens in the majors but they've been better lately. Myers is a pretty bad closer but has converted his last 4 save opportunities.

Rockies OPS last 7 was .847.
Phillies OPS last 7 was .768.

Rockies OPS vs L .774.
Phillies OPS vs L .834

Rockies OPS on the road .730
Phillies OPS at home .832


Should be a good game. Starting pitching is fairly even save for the fact that Francis was beat on both times by the Phillies this season. Giving a bit of an edge to the Philliesticks, too, as they're the more productive team vs lefties and they do solid work at home. Phillies bullpen is a big question mark and may prevent the club from making it too far. Phillies' offense is about the only thng that might get them through as, beyond Hamels, their starting pitching isn't very strong. They still should take the opener. A 64% call means that a -175 line is the break-even point. The line for this game shouldn't be anywhere near that expensive. I'm expecting -120 to -140 for this opener. I might take a shot in that range. A total of 9.5 or higher will make the under look possible. Might even see a 10. At an 8.5, which would surprise me, I'd totally pass on. The Phillies killer offense and their poor bullpen makes the over for their remaining games quite possible, so I'd only try the under with Hamels tossing. I thought that about the Philly overs even before knowing the matchup, but seeing as they're playing the Rockies I think that we can expect to see several overs in this series. I'll probably be looking there following this opener as, like I said, I won't try an over with Hamels tossing.


Predicted score: Phillies 5 Rockies 3


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

Phillies -142 1.42/1

under 9 -110 0.55/0.5


Maybe foolish playing an under in this series but I like my afternoon unders, and Francis has been pretty solid in day games. That last fact, including 8-0 in 9 starts by Francis, keeps my Phillies play smaller. I still think that they can pull it off. Hamels numbers during the days aren't as good as Francis', but Cole has been dynamite lately; for most of the season, really. His numbers are better at home than on the road, too. Still thinking that we might see that 5-3 type of score. Wish I knew the ump but I still think that afternoon games make decent under plays. If we find out near gametime that it's Doug Eddings, somehow, then I'll likely increase my under bet. I notice that both team totals have heavy juice on the unders (-170 one place) so I'm surprised that the game total is still relatively cheap at -110 (also see it at -116).

Looking to start the playoffs off right.
5-3 Philly would be groovy.

GL

 

[BadAngel]

GL EX. I like both of these plays. Just haven't taken the under yet.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Rockies lead series 1-0

Rockies lead series 1-0

Game #2

Morales @ Kendrick

rockies 51% (+145)+10

under 10 52% (-110)-1 --ump Reynolds, if rotation kept, is even


I have the hitting even for this contest while I'm giving a slight edge to the Rockies pitching. Phillies a little better against lefties than the Rockies were against righties, for the season, but the Rockies are the hotter hitting team and a lefty just shut down the Phillies pretty good. Kendrick with great numbers at home, including a 7-1 record with a 3.76 era, but he was hit hard by the Rockies both in a recent game at home and in an earlier '07 game at Coors, while Morales threw 5 shutout innings in his only vs the Phillies back on September 11th at Philadelphia. Morales likely doesn't last more than 6?possibly 7?so the Rox will need some solid work by the pen to bring it on home. Game could go either way so there appears to only be value with the Rockies at current lines.


Predicted score: Rockies 5 Phillies 4


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYOFF RECORD

2-1 +3.08
ML 1-1 +2.58
totals 1-0 +0.5

system sides 2-1
system picks 1-0 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system totals 2-0
total picks 0-0 (65%+)

----------------------------------------------------------------

Game #2

PLAYS

Rockies +144 0.7/1.01


Kendrick's 7-1 record at home is a bit of a turn-off, but the Rockies appear worth playing while they're riding their wave. Morales looks pretty good as a starter and shut down these guys once already. Game #3, back at Coors, might be the time to start looking at the over for this series?today's looks like it might play under again. I'll stick to the side and hope that the Rox can keep it up.

GL

 

[Dr. Fade]

What are your thoughts on "twilight" games affect on the O/U? I would have no clue how to find o/u mlb playoffs #'s in re: to the mid-day start times. I think the shadows can mess w/the hitters for a solid 3 innings imo.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'd be interested in seeing an over/under record for day games in Philly because I really wouldn't know how else to answer such a query.

Day games, in general, I kind of like under, as long as there's a worthwhile matchup happening.
For this series it looks tough as these teams are bound to create an over or two before this series is over. Maybe the one or two they play at Coors will go over. I really have no clue how this total will play out. Six runs in the opener was a couple less than I expected. Phillies quite capable of having big innings so I'm a bit hesitant on the total and the side, but I can't resist the price for this smoldering club.

Probably not much help but that's my 2 cents (plus or minus a penny).

GL

 

[Dr. Fade]

I was hoping I could get you to research "shadow" playoff games :mj07: I guess you have already done enogh. I'm w/you on your tunes as well. Thx for your efforts.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Rockies lead series 2-0

Rockies lead series 2-0

Game #3

Moyer @ Jimenez

Rockies 63% (-169)even

over 11 55% (-120)even --ump Meriwether, if him, is even


Moyer has an 0-4 mark with a 5.54 era in his career against the Rockies. That includes one meeting in '07, at Coors, where he lost, posing a 7.94 era for the game. That was his second at Coors, for his career, and his earlier start was no better as he is 0-2 with a 9.00 era for his 2 Coors starts. Three of Moyer's last 4 regular season starts were solid. Phillies bullpen is pretty bad, as evidenced in game #2. Closer Myers has been better lately but is certainly capable of blowing games.

Jimenez faced the Phillies once back on September 10th, pitching well for 6 innings but taking no decision as the Rockies lost the game 6-5. Jimenez had been mediocre for a few starts before looking dynamite in his final regular season start, allowing only 1 hit to the D'Backs at home while striking out 10; shows he can pitch in critical games as the Rockies were, of course, still outside looking in at the time. Rockies pen is better than the Phillies pen, including the better closer in Corpas.

Rockies were the hotter hitting team coming in to the playoffs and that certainly appears to be continuing.

This will be a real tough game for the Phillies. Facing elimination probably makes them pull out all the stops. It will take a very good game by Moyer to keep the Phillies playoff hopes alive; he's capable, as he was quite good down the stretch, but overall I like my chances better backing Jimenez, and the Rockies better bullpen, I also like my chances with the sticks?giving Philly a tiny edge at the plate for this matchup otherwise the call would be even higher. The opening line, unfortunately, doesn't leave much value with the Rockies; the runline is a possibility as the Rockies win most of their games by multiple runs and Coors Field certainly warrants a number of scores.


Predicted score: Rockies 7 Phillies 5


Plays pending.

GL

 

[Theboundbook]

Love Col to sweep! Kicking myself for not taking them in the sweep for this series.... Never did see what that paid, but Im sure it was high... My book doesnt have a line yet, but will hit it as soon as it comes out, ML and RL. Nice work so far with Col and this series....

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet

PLAYOFF RECORD

5-1 +5.78
ML 4-1 +5.28
totals 1-0 +0.5

system sides 6-2
system picks 2-0 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system totals 3-1
total picks 0-0 (65%+)

---------------------------------------------------------------

PLAYS

Rockies -1.5 +135 0.6/0.81

2-teamer
--Rockies ml (Sat)
--Yankees ml (Sun)
+150
1/1.5


Moyer is capable of tossing a good game to keep his team alive, but I think that the Rockies will be able to handle him and then get a few more off of a pretty poor Phillies bullpen. Jimenez might have some jitters, though he's already pitched a few games during the crazy wild-card chase that the Rockies performed. Phillies are a decent road team, but the Rockies still have to be granted a home-field edge as they've had the same for years now. I think that a Phillies win today would surprise me more than a D'Backs win. Even more so, I'd be surprised if the Yankees don't win on Sunday, at evidenced by my wagers. Have the Rockies live on a couple of other plays so they're my key BBgame for Saturday. Let's end it, boys!

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

pumpin' this one up a bit

2-teamer
--Rockies ml (Sat)
--Yankees ml (Sun)
+160
0.5/0.8


I think that I should be playing the over--taking a look at the starting lineups make that look quite possible. I'm hoping that Jimenez shows off his stuff. Phillies bound to score some, though, no doubt.

Glad the Cubs are gone; they looked pathetic.

GL