Very Important Stat - Everyone Must Look

[Fabulous]

My initial leans were towards Philly and the over. One very interesting stat that I came accross in my reserach was Jeff Francis' success in day games versus night games, take a look:

2007

Day Games: 8-0 2.48 ERA
Night Games: 9-9 4.92 ERA

Career

Day Games 17-6 3.88 ERA
Night Games 30-28 5.03 ERA

I dont know how much I should read into this because I'm sure there are a lot of factors making up this unbelievable difference, but it simply cannot be ignored.

I would love some feeback from everybody.

Thanks,

 

[NOLES#1]

IMO, I would not look to much on basing your decision on a game with those stats, He could have pitched against the worst teams in the league this year with those 8 wins...The stat you should take into consideration is, The 2 games he went against the phillies this year....


8.1 innings....20 hits....14runs given up

 

[Drew]

IMO, I would not look to much on basing your decision on a game with those stats, He could have pitched against the worst teams in the league this year with those 8 wins...The stat you should take into consideration is, The 2 games he went against the phillies this year....


8.1 innings....20 hits....14runs given up

I agree with Nole. Francis lit up last time in Philly

 

[bryanz]

as bad as he pitched, colo won, one of those gms. the days are long gone when you look at the starters and pick a winner.

 

[Fabulous]

Im with both of you. I have not looked into seeing who he has pitched against in those day games, but his career numbers are much better in day games as well which leads me to believe that he is just a better day-time pitcher. I like the Phills today and the Colorado bullpen should be very tired so if the can get Francis' pitch count up early in the game they will be in good shape.

 

[Drew]

as bad as he pitched, colo won, one of those gms. the days are long gone when you look at the starters and pick a winner.

But wouldn't you base your starting point with the starters? I cant imagine starting with the BP and moving backwards. You have to get to the BP first.:shrug:

 

[bryanz]

But wouldn't you base your starting point with the starters? I cant imagine starting with the BP and moving backwards. You have to get to the BP first.:shrug:

most of this season we have all lost and won many gms in the end. I think it's a sound approach to look at it from both points.... I don't think starters account directly for > 30% of the wins in BB...... Haven't you ever heard of the theory : start @ the end and work your way back ?

 

[Drew]

most of this season we have all lost and won many gms in the end. I think it's a sound approach to look at it from both points.... I don't think starters account directly for > 30% of the wins in BB...... Haven't you ever heard of the theory : start @ the end and work your way back ?

I agree you have to look at both points, because you have to have people capable of finishing the games for the starters, but I don't think that starting at the end and working your way back applies here...that applies to solving a murder or finding your missing keys after a night on the drunk :SIB . That's essentially retracing your footsteps.

I think we're in for a good game, but I think that Hamels has the edge, Francis not good last time in Philly, and Colorado players tired.