NLDS - Cubs vs Diamondbacks

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Game #1 (Zambrano @ Webb)

Diamondbacks 53% (-135)-5

under 7.5 59% (-115)+5


I have the pitching AND the hitting virtually even for this contest. A small home-field edge is really all that makes up the call.

Zambrano is 1-2 with a 4.88 era vs the D'Backs but with no meetings this season; all four of Carlos' games vs the D'Backs have been at Chase Field. I have the Cubs bullpen rated a 72. Dempster is a solid though unspectacular closer.

Webb got the loss in his only meeting with the Cubs this season, though he was pretty solid in that Wrigley Field game. He's 4-1 with a 2.53 era lifetime vs the Cubs. I have the D'Backs pen rated a 76. Valverde is also a solid but unspectacular closer.

Cubs 7-day OPS near .800; good, but this is after being at over .900 a few days back.
D'Backs 7-day OPS near .700; this is after they were recently well up over .800.

Very tough game to call. Zambrano had some shaky starts, a few weeks back, but was great over his past 2 but they were against depleted squads in the Pirates and the Reds. Webb has been solid lately though not dominant like midway through the season. Both starters have decent numbers vs opponent but no real measuring sticks lately, save for the one lone start by Webb. A very tough call. Cubs are tempting but D'Backs have been solid at home (36-22 vs R at home, .621) and Webb is certainly no slouch. Cubs were a solid 35-24 on the road to R (.593).

I can see this one being decided by the bullpens.

Predicted score: Diamondbacks 4 Cubs 3


Plays pending. This might be a good one to take a pass on.

GL

 

[alliecat]

with you on it. GLTA

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Diamondbacks lead series 1-0

Diamondbacks lead series 1-0

Game #2

Lilly @ Davis

cubs 55% (N/A)

over/under 9 50% (N/A) --Holbrook, if rotation is kept, is a bit of an over-ump, including 57-35 over the past 3 seasons (factored into call, as will be the case throughout the playoffs; i.e. was a slight under-call before factoring in Holbrook)


Lilly tossed one decent game against the D'Backs this season but still took the loss. He's 0-2 with a 3.38 era in 2 starts and 2 relief appearances against the D'Backs in his career. He was 6-3 with a 3.76 era on the road this season. His only start at Chase Field was the start back in August (D'Backs won 3-1). Cubs bullpen rated a 72. Dempster is a decent but unspectacular closer.

Davis was the winner in the 3-1 D'Backs win over Lilly and the Cubs, tossing a very good 7 innings. He's 7-5 with a 3.39 era in 13 career starts vs the Cubs. He was 8-3 with a 4.75 era at Chase Field this season. Davis had three shaky starts in a row before looking better in his last against a depleted Pirates squad. D'Backs bullpen rated a 76; they have several solid arms in the pen including closer Valverde.

Cubs .784 OPS last 7 days.
D'Backs .684 OPS last 7 days and run production was down.

D'Backs were 14-9 at home to L.
Cubs were 6-15 on the road to L.

A similar line for the Cubs in game #2, as we saw in game #1, and I'll likely try the visitor. A line near +100 will probably get me to bite. I have a little more faith in Lilly than Davis and, while both of these clubs struggle against lefties, I prefer the Cubs lineup facing a lefty.


Predicted score: Cubs 5 Diamondbacks 4


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Diamondbacks lead series 2-0

Diamondbacks lead series 2-0

Game #3

L.Hernandez @ Hill

Cubs 64% (n/a)

over/under 9? 50% (n/a) --Gibson, if him, is a bit of an over-ump, otherwise this call would have been for the under


Livan is 10-6 with a 4.02 era in his career vs the Cubs, but no meetings yet this season. He's been mediocre lately as he has been for the entire season. He was 4-8 with a 5.19 era on the road this season. D'Backs pen is pretty solid?a real strength of the club?and closer Valverde is pretty solid.

In 4 career starts vs the D'Backs, Hill is 1-1 with a 4.13 era. He made one start vs them this season, at home July 21st, and pitched very well but took a no-decision as the Cubs lost the game 3-2. Hill has been pretty good lately including a brilliant 1-hit, 6-inning preformance at Cinci to end the regular season. Cubs bullpen is average; same can be said for closer Dempster.

Cubs came into the playoffs the hotter hitting team. D'Backs have some trouble hitting lefties but got some preparation for the same in game #2. I still think that the pitching favours the Cubs in this game. Offensive nod as well.

Cubs are unlikely to be swept, I figure; Zambrano over Owings seems likely for the next game, too, so it might go 5 with Webb ending the Cubs season back at Chase.


Predicted score: Cubs 6 Diamondbacks 3


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYOFF RECORD

5-1 +5.78
ML 4-1 +5.28
totals 1-0 +0.5

system sides 6-2
system picks 2-0 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system totals 3-1
total picks 0-0 (65%+)

---------------------------------------------------------------

PLAYS

Cubs -1.5 +110 0.5/0.55

2-teamer
--Cubs ml (Sat)
--Yankees ml (Sun)
+131
0.87/1.13


I think that the Cubs should stay alive while at home. Game #5 would look good for the home side, with Webb tossing, but anything is possible in a deciding game. Obviously I think that the Yankees will stay alive, too, at least for a game #4, as I'm risking more on the combo than on the runline. Should be a good game; the playoffs have been very entertaining so far. Go Cubs!

GL

 

[bjfinste]

I'm surprised the Dbacks didn't go with Owings in Game 3 against Hill (essentially putting a DH in the lineup with Owings' bat against a hittable lefty). Hard to back Arizona with Livan on the hill. Good luck Saturday.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

adding:

2-teamer
--Cubs ml
--Rockies ml
+151
0.52/0.79


Might as well see if I can nail both of the home favorites today.
Sunday's remaining lines should be interesting. Cubs will be too heavy a favorite, but I think that if they can win both games at home then they might have enough momentum heading into game #5 to steal it; I might try the Cubs over Webb at +150ish as long as it's not Lilly throwing (which it probably would be?haven't cared for him since his Jays days). Yanks should win a game in their series and it's currently priced that way (-190's). Bosox would be worth a try at dog money but they'll likely be small favorites, I imagine. Near even money I might try for the sweep. I'm hoping that they don't need another game in Colorado but if they do then Hamels and the Phillies might just be favoured, if it's Fogg or somebody else other than Francis or Morales pitching; I guess that Francis would be used in a game #5 if needed; Phillies unload for 6 or more runs today, and get the win (obviously), and I might back them Sunday in the -110 to -120 range; depending on who Hamels is facing it might actually be more expensive, but I don't know about that as the Rockies can kick some serious ass at home, including against lefties; still, Hamels did look good in game #1. Will wait and see. Hopefully Hamels season is done. Now that I think of it, the D'Backs might be a worthwhile play on Sunday, facing Zambrano, as they'll likely pay better than +150. Hope the Cubs survive that long. Time for some Z's.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Not a very entertaining series, was it?
Four sweeps are, incredibly, possible.
Can't see the Yanks swept.
Angels quite possibly.
Hope the Rockies end it, at least.

DeRosa swung at ball 4 to hit into that double-play in the 5th; woulda been a 3-2 score with the bases loaded and one out. That was the ballgame. That was the series. See ya next year, Lou.