I don't know if my analyzing these games is helping anyone or not but I'm still 5-0 on sides. Didn't play the Yankees because as I said, they would either win by 1 or lose the game. I did talk myself into putting them in a half unit par with Det (hockey). Det won, the Yankees didn't. I've done more pure handicapping during these play-offs than I've done in years and it's kinda fun. Here's what I think I see for tonight.
Only one pitcher has beat Colo in their last 18 games and they face him again tonight. Brandon Webb is the only reason Ari is favored tonight. Well, that and Ari being at home. Lines are usually based on the public's perception of the starting pitching match-ups. As you know, I feel that how the ump calls the game can change what the starters can do dramatically. Tonight I don't think that will have a lot to do with it because both pitchers can handle the narrow zone pretty well and both are mentally tough and endurable. Both could easily go 7 even with the narrow zone so the bp's might not be as crucial as some other games. Colo's bp has been playing lights out during these play-offs and if it comes down to that I would have to give them the edge. Now for the rest of the story. In Webb's last 6 starts at home, he is 4-2 while Francis on the road is 3-2 last 5 but this could be very mis-leading. At home, Webb is only 2-2 against Colo this year while Francis is 4-1 for his career at Ari. The loss coming in April of 06. It gets more interesting. At home this year against Colo, Webb is ave almost 5 runs per game, 4,5,5, in his 3 starts. On the other hand, Francis has given up only 1 run in his last 2 starts at Ari and only 4 runs in his last 4 starts at Ari. Here's another interesting stat. Francis gives up more HRs than Webb but not to Ari. In his 3 home starts against Colo Webb has given up 2 while Francis in 3 starts against Ari this year has only given up 1. I don't pay much attention to what happened last year or year before but I do play a lot of attention to what's happened in the last month. It's hard in baseball for a good pitcher to beat another good pitcher twice in a row and Webb won less than two weeks ago. I'll go with what I think is the over-all better team here
Colo.
Only one pitcher has beat Colo in their last 18 games and they face him again tonight. Brandon Webb is the only reason Ari is favored tonight. Well, that and Ari being at home. Lines are usually based on the public's perception of the starting pitching match-ups. As you know, I feel that how the ump calls the game can change what the starters can do dramatically. Tonight I don't think that will have a lot to do with it because both pitchers can handle the narrow zone pretty well and both are mentally tough and endurable. Both could easily go 7 even with the narrow zone so the bp's might not be as crucial as some other games. Colo's bp has been playing lights out during these play-offs and if it comes down to that I would have to give them the edge. Now for the rest of the story. In Webb's last 6 starts at home, he is 4-2 while Francis on the road is 3-2 last 5 but this could be very mis-leading. At home, Webb is only 2-2 against Colo this year while Francis is 4-1 for his career at Ari. The loss coming in April of 06. It gets more interesting. At home this year against Colo, Webb is ave almost 5 runs per game, 4,5,5, in his 3 starts. On the other hand, Francis has given up only 1 run in his last 2 starts at Ari and only 4 runs in his last 4 starts at Ari. Here's another interesting stat. Francis gives up more HRs than Webb but not to Ari. In his 3 home starts against Colo Webb has given up 2 while Francis in 3 starts against Ari this year has only given up 1. I don't pay much attention to what happened last year or year before but I do play a lot of attention to what's happened in the last month. It's hard in baseball for a good pitcher to beat another good pitcher twice in a row and Webb won less than two weeks ago. I'll go with what I think is the over-all better team here
Colo.
