2007 World Series

[EXTRAPOLATER]

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PLAYOFF RECORD

17-8 +18.24
ML 11-1 +17.58
RL 2-3 -0.9
game totals 2-2 +0.15
team totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 1-2 +0.91

system sides 18-6 (75%)
system picks 4-1 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+) (2 of the 4 were doggies)

system totals 7-9
total picks 1-2 (65%+)
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[EXTRAPOLATER]

Game #1

Francis @ Beckett

Red Sox 65% (-196)-2

under 8.5 58% (-101)+7 --ump N/A


I'm giving the Red Sox a small-to-medium sized edge pitching. Giving the Red Sox a medium sized edge at the plate. Red Sox get a decent home-field advantage. This is the same call that I had for Beckett in the 'Sox last game #1 (65%), again against a lefty (Sabathia). Had a higher call on the under for that game #1 but C.C.'s stinker nixed that one. Sabathia is, arguably, better than Francis but C.C. had had a poor playoff start behind him when I posted the 65 while Francis has looked great in both of his playoff starts thus far. I would have the hitting closer to even for this opener, as I think that the Rockies can hit with Boston no problem, but some of the current offensive numbers?posted below?dictate that I give the Bosox a healthy edge. Back at Coors things might be different but let's see how the teams perform in the first 2 games first.

Francis faced the Red Sox once at Fenway Park this season, back on June 14th. He got the decision in a 7-1 win over Beckett. Francis allowed no runs on 7 hits (all singles; Varitek had a pair while Crisp, Lowell, Lugo, Perdoia and Ramirez had one each; Bosox hit .304 off Francis that game). He also allowed 2 walks while striking out 6 over his 5 innings of work; Jeff threw 103 pitches in that short outting so it looks like the Bosox must have gotten into a lot of deep counts; 5 relievers worked the final 4 innings, allowing just a single run on 3 hits. That game was Francis' only against the Red Sox. In 16 road starts this season he went 9-4 with a 4.24 era; notably, Francis' era was actually fractionally higher on the road?which is unusual for Rockies pitchers?though his whip and baa were slightly higher at Coors; he also allowed more homers (by innings pitched) and had a worse K/BB ratio on the road. The Rockies only went 2-3 in Francis' last 5 regular season road starts (he was 2-2) and Jeff was pounded hard in 2 of those. Both of Francis playoff starts were on the road and his 2-0 record, 2.13 era, .224 BAA and 4.00 K/BB ratio all suggest that he has been quite effective. Francis did allow 2 solo homers in the Philly game, and he didn't complete 7 innings in either game; that's about the only things that Jeff has done wrong so far in these playoffs, though the short outtings were tolerable as the Rockies bullpen has done great work so far in the playoffs. I have the Rockies pen with a rating of 74; middle relief has been strong for the past month or more; closer Corpas lacks experience but has done a very good job.
---this postseason the Rockies pitching staff is 7-0 with an era of 2.08 and a whip of 1.11; they've allowed a homer every 9.28 innings pitched and they've struck out 7.5 batters per 9 innings pitched for a K/BB ratio of 2.70

Beckett was the loser in that June 14th Fenway game, his only meeting with the Rockies this season. The Rockies hit .400 off Josh as they had 10 hits off him, scoring 6 earnies, in only 5 innings of work. Atkins (grand slam) and Holliday both homered off him. Atkins and Holliday also hit doubles, as did Matsui. Beckett walked one while fanning one. In 6 career starts against the Rockies, Beckett is 4-1 with a 3.89 era. At home this season Beckett's era was almost 2 full points higher (4.17 at home, 2.18 road). His whip, BAA, homers/9 IP and K/BB ratio were also worse at home this season and, unlike Dice-K, even his win-loss record was better on the road (9-5 at home). Beckett had 3 home starts to close out the season?in September?and went 2-1, looking very good against the Jays and the Yankees before having a bad outting against the Twins in his final regular season start. He's made 2 home starts in these playoffs and has a 1.20 era with 0 walks against 15 strikeouts to his credit. His last playoff start, at Jacobs, was maybe his best and dropped his playoff era to 1.17 as he brought his BB-K totals to 1 and 26. I have the Red Sox bullpen rated an 82; their middle relief is usually reliable and closer Papelbon is rock-solid.
---this postseason the Red Sox pitching staff is 7-3 with an era of 3.60 and a whip of 1.16; they've allowed a homer every 11.25 innings pitched and they've struck out 8.3 batters per 9 innings pitched for a K/BB ratio of 3.61

---wish I could find some decent pitching splits AS A RELIEVER for the playoffs, but such seems unavailable; Rockies have converted 6 of 7 save opportunities while the Red Sox have converted 1 of 1; Red Sox relievers have had their bad moments in the playoffs but have been good when needed, save for that extra-inning loss in game #2 to the Indians at Fenway (I just wouldn't use Delcarman or Gagne in a tight situation); Rockies relievers have performed over and above their rating from the regular season thus far

The Rockies took 2 of 3 from the Bosox at Fenway during the regular season, outscoring the Bosox 20-5. Wakefield beat Cook 2-1, Fogg beat Schilling 12-2 and then Francis beat Beckett 7-1.

Rockies .798 OPS vs R regular season (RS)
Red Sox .800 OPS vs L RS

Rockies .730 OPS on the road RS
Red Sox .844 OPS at home RS

Rockies .716 OPS this postseason in 7 games (batting .242)
--on the road in these playoffs the Rockies have scored 4 (Hamels),10 (Kendrick),5 (Webb) then 3 (D.Davis)...average is 5.5
Red Sox .901 OPS this postseason in 10 games (batting .304)
--at home in these playoffs the Red Sox have scored 4 (Lackey), 6 (Escobar), 10 (Sabathia), 6 (Carmona), 12 (Carmona) then 11 (Westbrook)...average is 8.17

Rockies .627 OPS last series (batting .222)
Red Sox .916 OPS last series (batting .318)

Rockies 31-30 on the road to R RS
Red Sox 12-8 at home to L RS
Rockies 2-0 on the road to R postseason (Kendrick then Webb)
Red Sox 1-0 at home to L postseason (Sabathia)

These offensive numbers are a little surprising to me, as the Rockies production has been down considerably. Rockies got through their first two rounds mostly by way of their pitching. Not only have they not produced terribly well in the postseason but the numbers got even worse in their latest series (that part is not surprising, going from facing the Phillies to the D'Backs). I'm still thinking about a Rockies series price, currently at +200, but I know that I could get better if the Rockies lose game #1, which my system is telling me to expect; a Bosox win in game #1 probably makes the Rockies series price climb to somewhere between +270 to +320, while a Rockies win in the opener likely drops it to somewhere between -140 and +100. With the freshest memories in bettor's minds being the recent comeback triumph by the Red Sox, I fully expect 'Sox money to be making its way to the books?the only real deterrent being the line. Rockies have been home and cooled off for some time and it's going to be difficult to gauge how they will perform early in this series. I still think that they have the better batting lineup as they have excellent power in the 3-7 spots in the order. Rockies will get to use the DH at Fenway, too, so their lineup should be pretty stacked; Rockies may use the young lefty Seth Smith at DH or maybe the lefty Cory Sullivan; Smith went an impressive 5 for 8 with the big club after his September call-up and is 2 for 4 in the playoffs with a double, while Sullivan hit .286 with just a pair of homers for the Rockies in 140 plate appearances and is 1 for 3 in these playoffs. Red Sox will likely stick with their lineup from games #6 and 7, though Drew may sit for Kielty with a lefty on the mound in game #1. I've made money with Beckett for his first 3 playoff starts but this opening line really turns me off; Red Sox by 2 for +105 if I'm going to go that route. As for the total, I briefly could have had a 9, just as Sunday's game #7 was ending, and I almost took it, but I hadn't completed this 'cap yet and I decided that I didn't want to rush into any bets. Guess I should have tried it, seeing as that's my early lean, though it was at -120 as opposed to the -101 available on the 8.5; mind you, I would now gladly pay the extra juice for the 9 as that is an extremely key number on a baseball total. Well?I've spent several hours on this and don't think that there is much more that I can add. To wrap things up, I can see the Rockies taking an early lead in this one before Beckett tosses some zeros in the 3rd through 6th, with the Bosox having at least one multiple-run inning to take the lead before handing things over to their solid bullpen.


Predicted score: Red Sox 5 Rockies 3


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some thoughts on the series

some thoughts on the series

I want to try that Rockies series price at +200. If the Rockies somehow take game #1 then that price will surely be cut in half. A couple of things are holding me back, aside from the likelihood of Beckett tossing a good game #1.

I've looked at some of the fireballers that the Bosox have faced this season and they've done quite well against them--very well, in fact. I think that the Rockies really need to take the second game if they don't take the first and young fireballer Ubaldo Jimenez should be taking the hill in that one. I'd prefer him over Dice-K but a Schilling matchup might make things more even. Regardless, the Bosox have had a lot of success off of hard-chuckers this season and they are averaging over 8 runs a game at home in these playoffs. Jimenez actually has pretty solid numbers at Coors for his 9 starts there this season; better than Francis, Morales or Fogg, at least, when you compare era's and baa's. His era at Coors was 3.81 but on the road it was 5.01 (lower baa on the road, though).

Dice may not like his Coors experience--for game 3 or game 4--as he's more of a fly ball pitcher and the Rockies have 5 starters in the lineup who can crush the ball. He'll face either Fogg or Morales; I'm not crazy about Fogg and Morales had pretty bad numbers at Coors, not to mention the fact that the Bosox hit lefties a tad better than they hit righties (only 13-15 on the road to L, though, while they were 32-21 on the road to R). Dice had a pretty strong game #7 so I'm going to need a fair price to fade him when he goes; I'll want dog-money if it's Fogg.

Wakefield was brilliant in winning the only game that the Bosox took from the Rockies back in their June series, allowing only 4 hits and a single run over his 8 innings pitched. He is only 1-3 in his career against them with a 4.39 era and .303 baa, but that most recent start can't be ignored when I do a 'cap for that game. Tim has never pitched at Coors. I really need to check out the Rockies' numbers vs some other knuckleballers to really 'cap that game properly, but I can't think of any off the top of my head (one is in there...shaking around...but I just can't recall it); remind me of some if you can think of them. Tim's good start against the Rox is another reason I'm hesitant to try the Rockies series price.

Probably like most people that watched the past 3 games, I liked the Rockies to take the Series more a few days ago than I like them now. Red Sox have won 3 in a row, looking very good in the process, the Rockies have had a long layoff which may hurt their momentum some, and the Bosox have the better ace in Beckett, home-field advantage, and the better bullpen, not to mention the much greater offensive production in these playoffs so far.

I guess I need to sleep on it.
Series price shouldn't move too much.
Maybe I'll come to my senses.

 

[Theboundbook]

Outstanding writeup.... Im thinking pretty much the same; do I hold and wait to take Col after game 1 loss or take it now because the Miracles of the Rockies just may beat Beckett again and make a statement.... Hmmm.....

 

[shamrock]

Beckett is a completely different pitcher now, compared to regular season.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

on the theory of Beckett not being himself

on the theory of Beckett not being himself

Beckett is a completely different pitcher now, compared to regular season.

You don't think that I've taken his playoff success into consideration?

You're playing the -200, I take it?

Keep in mind what the Rockies did to Jake Peavy, just a few weeks ago.
Peavy was the one starter in the Majors this season that was BETTER than Beckett.
3 days rest...I know...but the Rockies showed him no mercy and then went on to beat aces Hamels and Webb.

Schilling's playoff record is pretty much unblemished but he has thrown 2 good games to go with 1 stinker in these playoffs.

Beckett, himself, had one horrible game mixed in amongst his beauties in the '03 playoffs.

Beckett is NOT a completely different pitcher now then he was in the regular season.
Beckett is the same.
His regular season was fantastic and if he doesn't win the AL Cy Young then I'd be very surprised.
He IS very hot currently, and I've taken that into consideration, but that could change in an instant.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

(even more) game #1 analysis

(even more) game #1 analysis

thanks, BB. In some ways it's easier than during the regular season as I'm not looking at 15 games per day, but in other ways it's harder as I'm probably overanalyzing things.

I'm doing well in the playoffs so I'm a little bit anxious to make some plays, but I don't see much value anywhere for this game #1.

Beckett has made me about one-third of my playoff profits so far, but I still think that the Rockies may find a way to get the job done on Wednesday. I think that I have decided that I will not bet against the Rockies in these playoffs UNTIL they have lost a game. That may very well happen on Wednesday, but I'm not going to bet that it will happen.

Instead, I was actually considering playing the Rockies for game #1. I can currently get +190 which has a break-even mark of 35%, which matches my call on the Rox. It might reach +200 so one is probably better off waiting to try the Rockies. The thing is, I haven't played a call of less than 40% all season and don't know that I want to try such longshots now. The series price, also +200, is a little more appealing but a 'Sox win in game #1 would result in a crappy decision on that move; should become +250 or more if the 'Sox take the opener.

as for some other possibilities:

under 27.5 hits,runs and errors (-115) looks to be similar to the under 8.5. 15 or 16 hits seems like a probable high total while 7-9 runs seems likely. Add in, maybe, an error (or two) and I'd be looking at a possible total of 23-27. This one I'm still considering.

Rockies score 1st (+100) is about the most appealing to me as it seems that Beckett needs a couple of innings to really get in a groove; he has allowed a first-inning run in each of his past 2 starts and, of course, the Rockies get first opporunity to score as the visitor. I'll likely try a piece of this one.

under 4 runs 1st 4.5 innings (+100) looks worthwhile if you think that Beckett will do his thing. 15 outs for the visitors and 12 for the home side. Both bullpens have been solid but the 'Sox have been doing a lot of their damage AFTER the 5th inning, so a decent start by Francis might cash this one. I think that I'll wait until word of the umpire before trying any totals for this contest.

As far as player-vs-player total bases props go, *Atkins, *Helton, *Holliday, Matsui, Sullivan, Torrealba and Tulowitzki have all had success vs Beckett before. The asterisk is on players who have homered off of Beckett. Atkins and Sullivan (the possible DH) have both slugged 1.000 off of Beckett.
Struggling against Beckett have been Hawpe and Tavarez.
Crisp, Drew, Lugo, Pedroia, Ramirez and Varitek have all had success against Francis--in limited appearances (true for most vs Beckett, too), though the only extra-base hit of the bunch is a double by Crisp.
Lowell and Youkilis have struggled against Francis while Big Papi is 0-for-1 with a walk and a K.
This season Francis allowed just over 1 HR per 9 innings pitched while Beckett allowed just under 1 per 9 IP; that number holds for Beckett even at Fenway, despite the much higher era at home.
The place that I would play such props--which I usually don't bother with--doesn't have the lines open yet so I can't really evaluate them.
Hawpe vs Lowell will be available and Hawpe is 1 for 9 with no walks and 2 K's vs Beckett.
Atkins vs Drew also, and looks to favour Atkins as he is 6-for-10 off Beckett with a double and a homer.
In Helton's 4 for 12 vs Beckett he also has a double and a homer, listed vs Manny who's 1-for-3 off Francis with 1 K.
Holliday vs Ortiz is anybody's guess; Holliday has very good numbers against Beckett (6-for-14 (.429) with a double, triple and homer) but I sure won't fade Ortiz for this one; he hit .308 vs lefties this season...mind you, his slugging numbers are WAY down against lefties (.462 slg% vs L and .700 vs R).
Tulowitzki over Youkilis looks possible as Troy is 1-for-2 off of Beckett while Youk is 0-for-3 vs Francis, striking out twice.

Holy crap this is getting long.
Some further analysis, maybe, but what did I say about overanalyzing things?
At least I have the batter-vs-pitcher comments available to me in here; when they open the numbers I'll just check out this post to see if anything gives. Rockies should be doggies in all the player-vs-player TB matchups.

Might try the Rockies score 1st and leave it at that.
This game looks to be a good test of my discipline as I'm dying for some action but I don't really see any value anywhere. I think that my call (65% 'Sox) on this game is pretty realistic; can't go as high as 70% (which you'd really need for value on the 'Sox line) with the Rockies lineup and the way that they've performed since mid-September, and can't really go as low as 60% (meaning some value on the Rox) as I think that Francis may have had a bit of luck behind him in that June start at Fenway ('Sox did hit over .300 off him, despite not scoring).

I hope it's a good series.
Aside from Cy Beckett I'd say that these two teams are fairly evenly matched. I think that Jimenez and Morales are both going to be undervalued so maybe I should just be patient.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

shamrock...hope you took my reply the way it was intended. I appreciate getting other people's feedback but I wasn't too clear on what your point was. Beckett was undefeated at 9-0 when he lost to the Rox back in June, and I could site countless other examples of scorching hot starters getting hit hard in the midst of a strong streak. At -150 I'd be all over Beckett for this one. At -200 I think that he is being overvalued. GL on whatever you try.

 

[peteyboy]

How about Beckett -1 -150? I like it. I think if they win they win big.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I had an epiphany

I had an epiphany

I'll be playing the Rockies in both game #1 and for the series.

4 of the 5 big sticks in the Rockies order have all hit Beckett well in the past; mostly in limited action but I don't think that can be ignored. Either Seth Smith OR Cory Sullivan will be a nice addition to an already potent Rockies batting order. Matsui has hit Beckett before, also, while Tavarez brings some playoff experience. Torrealba has done some timely hitting so far in the playoffs. I'm not sure what kind of start to expect from Francis but he's kept his team in the game against both Hamels and Webb. Rockies have a shot if they jump on top early, which I think they will.

For the series, I believe that the Rockies can take 2 if not all 3 of the games played at Coors Field. It won't hurt that big bopper Ortiz won't be used as the DH; he could always play first base, I suppose, but that would take Youkilis out of the lineup. Beckett might take a game at Coors but if he is used for just 2 contests--likely #1 and #5--then I like the Rockies chances even better. I will likely be backing the Rockies in game #2, as well, as Jimenez has looked outstanding in the playoffs and he should be a large dog.

I'll post my final plays tomorrow.
You know where I stand.

 

[bej0101]

great write up BUT i still like the sox..long layoff will cool the rockies and experience will carry the sox..gl2all

 

[Keyser Soze]

I took the Rox for the NLCS +350 and for the Series +1250 before anything got underway. That being said, I am not thrilled with a ridiculously hot team having a ridiculously long lay off. I don't feel that the lay-off benefited the Rox. On top of all that, I just can't have MANNY win another championship. Can't stand that SOB!

Let's go ROX!

 

[shamrock]

You don't think that I've taken his playoff success into consideration?

You're playing the -200, I take it?

Keep in mind what the Rockies did to Jake Peavy, just a few weeks ago.
Peavy was the one starter in the Majors this season that was BETTER than Beckett.
3 days rest...I know...but the Rockies showed him no mercy and then went on to beat aces Hamels and Webb.

Schilling's playoff record is pretty much unblemished but he has thrown 2 good games to go with 1 stinker in these playoffs.

Beckett, himself, had one horrible game mixed in amongst his beauties in the '03 playoffs.

Beckett is NOT a completely different pitcher now then he was in the regular season.
Beckett is the same.
His regular season was fantastic and if he doesn't win the AL Cy Young then I'd be very surprised.
He IS very hot currently, and I've taken that into consideration, but that could change in an instant.

let me first say that I greatly respect and appreciate all your work done on the site. I read your posts always. Didn't intend any disrespect in my previous statement, and maybe I should have kept my comments to myself, rather than invade your thread. That said, I'm pretty confident you HAVE CONSIDERED Beckett s post season success in your analysis, as you eluded I may not have. And I haven't yet played the -200, actually considering -1.5 even. Also, it's not really a THEORY, but quite frankly fact that Beckett has grown and improved throughout this season under new pitching coach John Farrell. Last season Beckett was 16-11 with a 5 + era, 36 homers yielded & 74 walks. Under Farrell this season he has improved statistically radically in every area 20-7 3.27 era with roughly half homers yielded (17) & walks allowed (40). Also under Farrell Beckett was able to free himself from troubling blisters on his index finger which have landed him on the disabled list every year of his career. This was accomplished by throwing his breaking pitch with a slightly different grip, which in his recent starts has become a much different pitch as he has learned to master it.

Beckett s much improved season, is definitely being topped in his post season efforts however. First, his era has improved from a very respectable 3.27, to a ridiculous1.17 post season. His average against has dropped from.245 to.160
his K/BB RATIO has gone from 194/40 to 26/1, that is a gigantic difference. Beckett had 194 strikeouts in 200 innings(.97), in this post season he has 26 strikeouts in 23 innings (1.2)a considerable difference. Also postseason 1 walk in 23 innings, 40 walks in 200 innings regular season, again considerable difference.

I would respectfully disagree that Beckett is a different pitcher this season, and most notably this post season than previously, mainly because of his work with new pitching coach John Ferrell. He has developed a much better breaking pitch, his command is radically improved, and most significantly he has learned to set up batters & pitch as opposed to THROW like he did last season. This PITCHING is why his walks & homers are greatly reduced this season.

In any case, keep up the great work, and enjoy the series.

Respectfully
Shamrock

 

[rusty]

This really is a tough one to call IMO.
Will Colorado play over there heads like they have the last month of season and playoffs.
Will there good but inexperienced pitchers continue to suceed or crumble under the pressure.

Like you pointed out there batting ave. has slowly been on the decline and now there going up against a league that by far is better hands down.

Ill be the first to say my capping in baseball was in the red for the season,and i wouldnt go against you or gsp,but having said that,just think that experience wins out here.
Think the Sox have reached the moutain after the Clev. series and are on there way.

Im not even gonna wager on it,your right the prices are insane,but I did put a future on the Sox to win the WS before the playoffs started at +220
GL to you SIR.
Sox in 6.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

shamrock...that's more what I'm looking for in a contribution.
Nice work.

As I've mentioned, I played Beckett in each of his first 3 playoff starts and I know that I could very well end up being the fool for both this game and for the series. I didn't care much for Farrell as a pitcher and I'm not sure that he's the greatest pitching coach, but it's hard to argue with the work that he's done with this year's staff, especially with the bullpen. Beckett is in a groove--that can't be denied--but I think that a potent offense is the best antidote to groovy pitchers. I guess that I just believe that the Rockies actually have the better offense and that's what I'm really banking on here.

I can't explain it. Went out for a walk late last night and really thought of nothing other than this game and the series as a whole. A couple of things just dawned on me, most of which I think I've mentioned somewhere in this thread. I really like the Rockies chances at Coors so I believe that the series price is better than the game #1 option.

You certainly weren't "invading my thread". Don't put it that way as I certainly don't mind others contributing; I think that such will only make the overall argument better if people add pros/cons/critiques/etc. Maybe I overreacted somewhat in my response...I actually try to be pretty sensitive to other people's feelings whatever I post, but I took your original comment to mean, basically, that the Rockies have no chance in this game #1. I was still fighting a nagging temptation to try the Rockies that was burning inside of me and maybe you just stated what I was thinking myself; a thought that made my internal struggle all the more difficult. I have lost that battle (or maybe won it) and now have money on the series and on game #1.

Hasn't even started yet and I'm dying to see game #2.

Can't wait for the start of the '08 season, too.


P.S.
can somebody please tell me what "IMO" means?
I'm seeing this all over the place, usually after somebody states an opinion on something, but for the life of me I can't figure out what it stands for.

rusty, every sportwriter or whatever that I've seen give a series prediction is calling the 'Sox to win. Most I've seen are saying in 4 or 5 games. I'm still waiting to see someone picking the Rockies, in however many games. I suppose that I could come up with a call in here, seeing as I'm backing the Rockies, but I really have no clue how many games this series will last. I actually think that if the Rockies can get on a roll early in this series that they might end it at Coors or maybe in game #6. Let me do a 'cap on game #2 (likely tonight or tomorrow at the latest) and I might be able to offer a call. I presume that game #6 would be Jimenez again so I'd be tempted to call the Rockies in 6. Again...two things could very well happen: (1) I give back half of my playoff earnings trying to chase down Rockies victories, all the while looking like a fool in the process, and (2) the Rockies outstanding streak gets relegated to the dustbins of our memories as they join the ranks of the quickly forgotten--the World Series losers...that latter would be a shame as the Rockies have accomplished some great things to get to where they are. I think they just need the offense to start clicking as they've relied way too heavily on their pitching in the postseason so far. In Fenway Park with the addition of a DH might be an ideal scenario for them to get rolling with the sticks. Of course, there's still the matter of a likely future HOF'er to contend with. Perhaps I should cover myself with the under, but I'm not quite sure what Francis will do and I really need a decent under-ump going to get me to try that--no even or slight under-umps so pass with Dreckman, Winters, Hoye, etc. ... I'm looking for either an Eddings, Hirschbeck, either Welke, or maybe one or two others.

Ho-hum...certainly no shortage of things to say, aye? Wish things came out so easily while working on my book, but I think I'm trying to be a little too perfect for that while I find I have more freedom here in the annals of madjacksports.

Will post plays in a bit.
Still considering upping my plays, which are fairly small, so far. Maybe if I hit both NHL games today. Speaking of which--I should go check out what's happening.

To one and all: feel free to contribute your thoughts.

 

[Destructor D]

I like the Rockies as a contrarian play for the series and tomorrow. I feel Beckett is overdue for a rough outing. I saw him get hit hard by Minnesota to end the season at Fenway and my gut tells me he gets knocked around tomorrow a little bit. Just my gut feeling since everyone and their mom and dad likes the Red Sox to win this series easily.

Colorado might be young, but they'll be loose. They have won 21 of 22 so I would be crazy to not give them a shot in the World Series... absolutely crazy!

 

[IE]

can somebody please tell me what "IMO" means?

"In My Opinion"

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks IE...I guess maybe I should have figured that one out myself...I did say that it seems to happen after someone gives an Opinion on something

LOL...took me a while to figure that one out, too.
(first saw it playing cards online, and at first thought it meant "lots of luck").

Hey Destructor...I noticed you were trying the Rockies, too. Good not to be totally alone--we are in a definite minority.

20 more hours...can't wait!

 

[Dr. Fade]

I'm in on Col. I've got them @ 10-1 pre-playoff wager. I like the "hot" team going in- that's why wild card teams have been successful since the format was implemented. I love Beckett, but -210? What? destiny- no thanks. I see a split @ Bos. and will take the loss on a Col play gm 1. So be it. Too much value. Let's see.......Team B has won 22 of 23...I'll give you 1.8 to 1. "SOLD!" Beckett is scary, but Extrap has shown some favorable line-up/match-up #'s looking very positive for Col. GL to Rockies bettors

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet

PLAYS

Series

Rockies Series Champs +225 2/4.5


Game #1

Rockies score 1st +100 0.65/0.65
Rockies lead after 4.5 +140 0.5/0.7
Rockies +190 0.8/1.52
Rockies +200 0.56/1.12


I figured that the moneyline might reach +200 but I had a good feeling about this one Monday night so I decided to go for it. Added to the play as I finally had a decent day in the NHL?might be turning things around there?plus I've had a solid 17-day run overall (really smokin' all-round since the MLB playoffs started) so I'm perhaps going a little overboard on this puppy today. I really like the Rockies in game #2, at +150ish, so I'll probably be on board for Thursday's contest as well. Like them at Coors, too, but if they drop the first two then my bets will have to drop as I don't want to give back too much of my playoff earnings during this final round. Wish I was demonstrating a little more confidence in my plays but most of the known world would tell you that I'm insane for backing these guys. Insane, maybe, but not alone judging by a couple of contributions herein. Hope to at least see a good ballgame?I'd say that part is almost gauranteed.

Enjoy, and
GL

 

[nedp]

Good Luck.....I'll ride dat Pony wit Ya.....RIDESALLYRIDE....

Good Luck.....I'll ride dat Pony wit Ya.....RIDESALLYRIDE....

Thanks for all your work.....

You missed a GREAT Party in the Grove at Oxford....

and some GREAT Looking Puss too......

Damn I Love Southern Women.....

AAAIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

Rebuilding America.....One Hurricane at a Time...