Wk. 8.

[MrChristo]

2-4 posted last week...it was always on the cards! :com:

27-13 season.

SL v. Cleveland over 43.5

League: 12-4 over (Av, total 39.8...av. score 46.9) away fav of 3 or more, off a BYE if opp is off a 10+ ats loss. [SL]
(1-0 2007. Denver 31-28 Pits @ 39)
5-0 (Av. total 44.1...av. score 54.0!) if total is 40+.

Who would have ever thought the Brownies would be a near auto-matic 'over' team?! 5-0-1 on the year, av. 27.8ppg, and allowing over 30!
SL have been a different story...but they've had reasonably tough schedule so far, they've played 7 of the top 19 teams for total D, and 4 of those have been on the road...Cleveland are dead last.
Their D has consistantly sucked tho, allowing over 27 ppg.
27-17 either way? Like the over at 44 or less.

Tenn v. Oaktown under 41

League: 11-23 under (Av. total 39.5...av. score 35.1) home 7+ fav, off a 1-3 SU win as away7 (-3 to +3) [Tenn]
(0-2 under 2006. Caro 21-18 NO @ 41. Jets 23-3 Oak @ 34)
2-9 under (1-10 this no...av. total 38.5...av. score 31.9) if they had 34+ mins TOP.
0-5 under (Av. total 40.2...av. score 29.6!) if opp is off any ats loss.

Much like the Oakland/KC game last week, we have two predominantly running teams with solid pass D's going at it.
Oakland have played some pretty bad D's and still only av. 21 ppg.
Last week looks to be a total aboration for the Titans, giving up 29 in the last quarter, inc. 14 in 40 seconds after an on-side kick and a 50 yard heave!! :nono:
7 of Houston's points also came from a fumble recovery early.
There should be a few big lond, time consuming drives by Tenn, and I don't think da Raiders will have much going at all.

Pittsburgh -4 (1.99)

League: 3-18-1 (av. loss 12.4) home dog, off a 1-3 ats win as a home fav. [Cinci]
0-13-1 (Av. loss 15.0!) if they lost the previous meeting ats.

Cinci were lucky to get over the Jets last week, trailing nearly all game and only a pick 6 late sealing the win.
Despite the loss last week, Pits still have the best points allowed (13ppg) in the NFL, and also the no. 1 overall D, allowing 250 ypg.
The Bengals are 29th and allow over 31 ppg, and just as concerning, 4.7 y/rush...Parker shold have a huge one.
The Steelers have lost the last 2 on the road, but this looks a far eaiser task, esp. considering they have won their last 5 SU @ Cinci! (4-0-1 ats).

A couple more to come later on... :00hour

 

[Vicc Inzagio]

keep up the good work buddy... !!! BOL


vicc

 

[escarzamd]

Superlative work....love the picks.....I'm PO'd at Pitt for getting shoved around by Denv, but see them teeing up Cincy at home.......like over in that one as well. GL......Doc

 

[Axle]

Lookin' Good MC.

 

[Dizzayton]

Look good on paper. All of the picks make a lot of sense. Good luck.

 

[YUNGBUCK]

McLovin! The Over on the stLou/Clev game!! Steven Jackson is back and they're gonna finnaly score a couple of TD's!!

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks as always guys. :toast:

TB v. Jax under 32.5

League: 1-10 ats (Av. LOSS 3.5) any home fav, off an ats loss as away dog, with 34+ mins TOP if total <38. [TB] (Team av's 13.7 ppg)
1-5 SU! (Av. LOSS 9.0!!) if total <36. (Team av's 8.0 ppg!)

So, despite controlling the clock last week, TB still couldn't score...and under normal circumstances this week that lack of scoring would see them struggle to cover as a home fav...
...but things are hardly normal at Jacksonville.
Gray @ QB, coming off an awful performance last week, now facing one of the best pass D's in the NFL...
...I sure hope Taylor and Jones-Drew are fit, 'cause they figure to get a hell of a lot of work in this one!
The Bucs giving up just 9 ppg at home as it is...
Last week (v. Indi) was the first time Jax had allowed over 17 points.
I don't think either team top 17, so happy to take the under even at this low total.


I was originally very interested in the SD/Houst over, but will see how things pan out in the next day or two...
...also like NO as a road fav, but waiting to see how the line reacts to Smith being named as starter.

That's about it I think.

Good Luck all

 

[MrChristo]

SD v. Houston over 44

League: 19-5 over (Av. total 45.1...av. score 54.5) home 7+ fav, total 42.5+ off a BYE. [SD]
(1-0 2006. Indi 36-22 Wash)

Should be plenty of points in this one. Both teams av. in the 20's for scoring, and Houston's D has been pretty bad, esp. on the road, giving up 28 ppg. (In fact, they're giving up 28.5 overall if you take out KC's effort in week 1.)
They allow 4.7 y/rush, so LT should have another monster game.
But, they can move the ball themselves. 7.6 y/pass is 3rd best in the NFL behind Indi and NE, so I think they can have some success against a questionable Chargers secondary.
They'll also know they won't be able to run on this D, so airing it out should be the order of the day.

GB @ Denver under 41.5 (2.00)

League: 1-9 under (av. total 44.0...av. score 31.4) away dog off a BYE, if opp is off an upset SU win, and total is 40+ [Denver]

Denver's D hasn't been great, but it's the running game that's doing all the damage...and basically, GB haven't got one!
Dead last in rush yards at just 65.7 and attempts (20 per game)...and 3rd worst 3.3 per carry.
They have been miving the ball well through the air, but have only played 1 team in the top 10 for pass yards allowed...Washington (8th) who allowed Favre just 188 and 10 offensive points.
Denver are 2nd allowing just 164 per game.
The Packers D has been ok, giving up just 17.8 ppg, and allowed just 16 and 13 on the road.

 

[baby johnson]

thanks mr c

like the picks and will coat tail

 

[Hooks]

Mr.Christo, have to factor in the kaos of the FIRES. Unusual practices, not knowing if they'd even play the game, etc. Still a go ?

You're doing an excellent job this year Sir.

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks again lads. :toast:

Yeah, not sure how much to consider it really, Hooks...
I mean, there's every chance SD's defense will be as under-prepared as the offense...:shrug:

Besides, I still remember the last time it happened (must be getting old! :scared ) ...Pretty sure the Chargers opened up at -6 or -7 v. Miami, and I was all over it...the the game was moved and they kicked off at -3, which scared me off.
Of course SD ended up winning the game comfortably.

Rivers has said that they are professionals, and just want to play football, so I really don't think it will be a huge factor.


Any reason the Denver/GB total has shot up a whole point?!

 

[MrChristo]

How good is Derek Anderson??!! :scared

What a great year he is having so far!!

(Yet, as I speak Big Ben throws a pick on the Cinci 7...:com: )

NO -2

League: 0-11 SU (2-7-2?1-10 this no?av. loss 13.2) home dog, off a 7+ ats loss as away 7+ dog, if opp is off a 1-3 ats loss. [SF]
(0-1 2007. SF 3-23 Seattle @ +2)

NO have seemingly turned their season around in the last 3 weeks, winning 2 games and allowing just 16, 17 & 16 points.
Surprisingly, their run D is actually quite good, allowing just 3.6 ypr, it?s their pass D that has been the problem, but can SF take advantage? Throwing for a league low 4.31 y/pass?I know a fair bit of that has been down to Dilfer, but Smith was hardly setting the world on fire early anyway?2 wins early, but had less FD?s and yards in both, and Smith was a combined 26/48 for 199 net yards.
Gore banged up, against a solid run D, I?m not sure Smith can carry the load, even on this D.
NO dominated this match-up last season, holding SF to 10 points on 10 FD?s and just 22.41 mins TOP.
Of course the Saints offense looks a shadow of itself from last year, but I still think they get the job done here by at least a FG.

 

[tball]

thanx

thanx

...for these today--keep up the good work. great job!

 

[Dizzayton]

Hit Pitt, Clev Over, and Oak Under all straight up and for three team parlay. Thanks for all your hard work. Great capping.

 

[escarzamd]

:hail :hail :hail

I'm switchin to GB Under.......not fading you this week.