Unlucky 13...

[MrChristo]

...well, not for me I hope!! :scared

5-2 last week...now 49-25 all up. (I do want that 66% mark...:00hour )

Jax @ Indi over 44.5

League: 17-6-1 (Av. total 43.2...av. score 49.6) home 7+ fav, off an ats win as away 10+ fav. [Indi]
8-2-1 (Av. score 53.9) if opps last game went 'over'...5-0 (Av. score 62.0!) if it went 10+ over.

Getting this one now, 'cause I think it will probably get above 45, which I wouldn't really want.
Gerrard and the Jacksonville offense are on fire! They've score 24+ in each of their last 5...and probably not surprisingly gone 5-0 over in the process.
I'm not entirely sure how good their defense is...they've allowed 17 or less in 7 games, but against some poor offenses. Tenn (x2), Atl, KC, DEnv, Tex, SD and Buff...the only one of those teams ranked higher than 21st for scoring is SD (16th)...the rest av. <20 ppg...in fact 3 of the bottom 5 in the NFL there that av. <15 ppg.
I think that's shown a bit in the passing D of Jax, which is surprisingly ranked 24th overall.
Indi have been down recently, but looked to get some mojo back last week.
I think the total is a bit low due to the last meeting where Jax scored just 7 (did give up 29!)...but both Gerrard and Jones-Drew were injured during the course of that game.
Indi have had much the same soft-scoring schedule as Jax, so this is the best offenses either team will face all season (besides NE).
They are ranked 4th and 11th in scoring and really should produce some points here.

Cleveland @ 'Zona under 52

League: 2-11 under (0-13 this no...av. total 47.5...av. score 38.5) away dog, off an ats win as home 3+ fav with >34 mins TOP, the total is >44 and opp is off a 10+ ats loss. [Cleve]

Fresh off their first under of the season...but this is a high total, they would only be 5-6 over this number so far.
And they found some ball control this week. 140+ yards rushing, controlling the clock for 35+ minutes, giving their defense much needed time on the sidelines.
And, there's no reason why they won't have success on the ground again next week, given that Arizona allowed SF over 130 yards today.
More big, long, time consuming drives for the Brownies ahead, and hopefully a stop or two from a rejuvinated D and this total looks very big already.
The Cards have had 2 high scorers last two, but would be only 3-8 under this number for the season.
Books have not only caught up with Cleveland totals, they've zoomed stright passed. :142smilie

TB @ NO over 41.5

League: 19-4-1 (Av. total 41.3...av. score 48.3) home fav of 3 or more, off a 21+ SU win as away fav, if opp last had <26 mins TOP. [NO]
(5-0 (Av. score 48.2) if opp won ats.)
9-1-1 (10-1 this no...av. score 53.5) if total is 40+.

NO have finally got some offensive click back into their game...av. over 27 in their last 7 games, and scored <22 just once.
I still think the TB D is slightly over-rated, given their soft schedule...they did allow over 300 yards in the air last week to Campbell, and over 100 on the ground as well.
The score was lower than it shuold have been because of the 6 FG's and just 2 TD's...but that shouldn't be a problem this week, given that the Saints have kicked just 8 FG's all season! (The lowest in the NFL)
TB do tend to score quickly on big plays...even in the last meeting which they won 31-14, they had <27 mins TOP, and this NO D definately can be scored on at any time.
Both meetings last season went over (both had 45 points).
Garcia is questionable, but Gradkowski was a very solid 36/58 for 408, 4 TD's 0 INT's in pre-season...and let's face it, this NO D isn't any better than NE, Miami or the Jags reserves! :mj07:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

:thumb:

 

[vanbasten]

christo,

straight up - do you see anything to support these teams this week?

minny
denver
carolina

miny is 13-2 their last 15 su hosting detroit.

i like them all to win outright.

thanks in advance. good luck to you.

 

[MrChristo]

You've got a totally mixed bag with those 3, vb...

The good: League: 6-13-1 (Av. loss 8.6) as any away dog, off a SU win as away 10+ dog. [SF]
...and 0-7 is the total is <38...where the team av's just 7.3 ppg.

I'll definately be on this game in some form...not sure whether I'll take the fav, the under, both or maybe just the SF team total...
...but I don't think it will surprise too many people if the 49ers don't burn up the scoreboard two weeks in a row!!

The ambivalent equivalent: League: 3-14 (Av. loss 15.4!) away 3+ dog, off a 7+ ats loss as home 3+ dog if they had 32+ mins TOP. [Det]

Problem for me is that match-up-wise, I actually like Detroit here!!
Pretty sure the situation is saying that Det have a crap pass D and can be scored on quickly...but can Minni?
Last meeting Det held Peterson to about 60 yards, and they do rely pretty heavily on their ground game.
On the other side I think this really bad Minni pass D is what Martz and Kitna need to get back on track.
Forget last week...shut down NY's run and Eli folds every time...but I don't think the Lions will have the same trouble.
Also, in the last meeting Kitna got knocked out of the game and O'Sullivan came in and turned it over4 times...

And the downright fugly:

Oakland +4

League: 2-12-2 (Av. LOSS 0.1) away fav, off an OT as away (+3 to -3) [Denv]
0-7-1 (Av. LOSS 4.6) if they had 30+ mins TOP.

Again, Denver's defense just isn't good enough to be a fav on the road, where they allow 28.8 ppg, and nearly 150 yards rushing, which of course, plays right into Oaktown's only real strength.
Fargas 22-139 last week against a reasonable (better than Denver anyway!) run D, I don't see how this game will be much different from the first meeting in Week 2, when Denver won by 3 in OT (at home) and gave up 200 yards on the ground. (Jordon was 25-159)
Denver are just 5-6 on the season, with only 2 of those wins being by more than a FG...they've been favoured by more than 3 just twice, and lost both ats (inc. the Oakland game)
As bad as da Raiders are, I don't see how another legitimately bad team can be laying more than a FG in their own backyard.



[Now, having said all that, obviously don't let me put you off any plays...I do get things wrong just over 1/3 of the time! :142smilie ...lol...
...but seriously, going against Det on the road, and Oakland any time will win you more than it loses!
Absolutely best of luck whatever you end up playing. :toast: ]

 

[MrChristo]

(In case there's any confusion, I am actually playing Oakland...)

Favre over 320.5 yards passing (+125)

Favre is 7-4 over this number for the season...has thrown for less v. Carolina and Washington (both in the top 10 for y/pass), NYG (leader in sacks) and Philli all the way back in week 1.
(NY was in week 2 aswell, so 7-2 over this number since then!)
Now, statistically, Dallas are also a very good pass D, and they've allowed over 320 just twice all season, but look who they've faced...
Jets (25th in passing)
348 to Campbell! (15th)
NYG (16th)
Philli (12th)
Min (31st)
388 to NE (1st)
Buff (30th)
SL (18th...in a game where Bulger got injured ayway)
Chic (14th...and with Grossman)
287 to Lemon! (Miami are 26th)
and 312 to the Giants in wk. 1.

Not much in the way of an aerial threat amongst that lot!...Green Bay are second in passing overall...
...and what's more is that we've seen so far that against teams that are good against the run (Dallas are 4th @ 3.6 ypr) they hardly even bother trying! (They threw 45+ passes v. Minni (x2) and SD, and 41 last week @ Det, despite winning all of those games comfortably!!)
What's even more still, is that the Pack are likely to be behind, so Favre could easily throw the ball 50+ times here....and that nice soft Dallas zone D late is always good for 50-60 yards, as shown by the Washington game.
Like the number, and like the odds. :drinky:


Buffalo +6

League: 21-7 (Av. loss 4.4) away 3+ dog, off a 10+ ats loss as away 7+ dog, if total is 38 or less. [Buff]
9-1 (Av. WIN 1.7) if opp is off an ats loss.

Not entirely sure where this line is coming from! Both teams 5-6, and Washington with just 2 wins by more than 3...in fact they are 1-3 wen favoured by 3+, and Buff are 5-0 when dogs of 6 or less.
Edwards back this week, and he is 4-1 ats as a starter....the loss being to NE.
The Bills are being under-rated because of their last 2 games...both with Lossman @ QB...one v. NE (always going to get ugly!), and a seemingly big loss last week, but they gave up 14 points in the last 2.40, as they turned it over on downs at their own 18 yard line.
Washington D has been in real trouble lately, allowing 19+ in each of their last 6 @ 28.5!!
Their offense isn't good enough to win big when giving up numbers like that...esp. against a solid Bills D who give up 23.5 ppg, but 18.2 if we take out both the NE games!
Seems like a lot of points to me.

Good luck all

 

[harlytiger]

Keep up the great work, that record is very impressive:00hour

 

[Dizzayton]

Who knows what will happen, but Bills are better with Edwards at the helm.

 

[MrChristo]

Yeah, thakns Dizz...I prefer to keep the emotion out when I 'cap games...I could well be wrong in this case, but happy to see the faithful think Edwards is a definate step up!

The Favre bet (although somewhat of an unlucky end I guess!) wasw probably one of my silier bets of the year...
...with the Packer D as hort-handed as it was, the over was the play of the day for sure...

SO, from one silly play to the next...

SL -3

League: 10-3 (Av. win 11.2) home 3+ fav, off a 1-3 at loss as home dog. [SL]
7-0 (Av. win 15.4) if they had >30 mins TOP.

League: 3-11 (2-12 this no...av. loss 16.7) away dog, off an ats loss as home 7+ dog with >30 mins TOP. [Atl]

Two teams that are as bad as each other, but SL should be on a 3-0 run since Jackson's return, after they fell just short last week...not to mention Seattle scored from a 89 yard KO return.
Sure, Frerotte is struggling, but on the other side there's either Harrington or Leftwich!!...Either way, Atl av. just 11.8 ppg on the road, which surely won't be enough given how much their defense has sucked all year.
SL to get their first home win of the season!! :00hour

 

[MrChristo]

San Fran under 16.5

League: Av. 13.6 ppg, as any away dog, off a SU win as away 10+ dog. [SF]
Av. 7.3 if the total is <38. ***

I couldn't decide whether to take Carolina or the under, so I'll take the Panthers out of the equation all together!
Last week was the first time since Week 2 that SF had scored more than 16 points!!
They ovbiously played well above themselves in that game...and ha likely set themselves for their last Div game of the season, so a huge let down spot for them here.
There will be no quick-fire scoring by either team...Vinny T. not 100%, so the Panthers will likely come out running, all ticking away valuable time.
Carolina have the 4th best run D in the NFL also @ 3.6 y/rush, so they will rely heavily on Dilfer...
...and even tho they scored 37 last week, he threw for just 256 yards @ 6.6.
Carolina could score 50, they could lay an egg for all I care...SF should struggle to limp to 10!

*** If anyone's intersted, the team is 0-7 ats and 1-6 under in that situation. (I'm just not sure I can trust the Panthers to score, or the SF road D to stop them!!)


Detroit @ Minni under 45.5

League: 3-13-1 under (2-15 this no...av total 38.8...av. score 37.4) on the road, off a 7+ ats loss as home dog, if the previous meeting went to OT! [Det]
0-5 (Av. score 37.2) if total is >40.

League: 4-12 under (Av. total 41.0...av. score 34.8...1 over due only to OT) home 3+ fav off a 21+ ats win as away 7+ dog. [Min]
1-5 (0-6 in reg...av. score 30.3) if opp had 30+ mins TOP.

First time I've ever seen this situation!...but apparently the total is over-blown if the teams last played an OT game! Maybe the extra points simply inflate the averages, or maybe on a physical level, the players/coaches know it will be a close game and so a bit conservative...
You can certainly see why the Vikes total would be too high this week tho...off a 41 point explosion last week...except that 21 of them came from the defense.
Minni offense av's 21 ppg...but even that is a bit misleading...they are deadlast for passing yards in the NFL, and so rely very heavily on their running game...in their 5 wins they have scored 24+ in each, and a closer look shows why. 4 of those wins came against bad run D's. Atl, Chic, SD and Oak all allow at least 4.3 ypr and are all 22nd or worse overall...then last week...
Detroit have a very solid run D, in fact 5th best in the NFL allowing just 3.7 ypr. They held Minni to right on that average last meeting, giving up 123 on 33 carries. (Peterson 66/20)

** In every game that the Vikings have faced a run D who allows 4.0 ypr or better, they have lost...and av'd just 12.1 ppg in the process!!! **

Detroit won't be able to get anything going on the ground, and no doubt they will give up one or two picks (that hopefully don't get TD'd!!)...their poor pass D has been burnt twice in the last 3 weeks, but by Favre and Warner...Tavarius Jackson still isn't quite in that bracket yet!!...but they held a run first offense in NYG to just 16 two weeks ago.

The more I think about this game, the more I think Detroit can win SU...but being the team they are, will no doubt stuff it up somehow!!
So, under it is.

That's it for me...Have a good one everybody.

 

[MrChristo]

No....no it isn't it for me at all...

Feel like I'm trying to set some kind of record here, but I've just dug a little deeper into some games I had half picked out earlier in the week...

San Diego -6

League: 16-3 (Av. win 15.1) away 3+ fav, off an ats win as a 3+ fav, if they lost the previous meeting by 21+ ats. [SD]
(4-0 2007: Dal 37-20 Mia @ -3.5, NE 49-28 Mia @ -16, Indi 29-7 Jax @ -3, Dal 38-17 Phil @ -3)

The Chargers are in a lock down battle with Denver for the Division, and now can't afford to drop games like this if they want to make the play-offs.
And, there's nothing like a bit of revenge to keep a team focussed! SD blew a 7 point lead in the 3rd at home last meeting and lost by 14.
Rivers had 2 INT's and a fumble lost and they gave up 123 yards to LJ on 25 carries...
I was impressed how Rivers got things done last week when Baltimore stuffed their running game...but really he shouldn't have to carry too much of the load this week as KC gave up over 130 to LT in the first meeting, and 150+ to Oakland last week.
SD are just 1-4 on the road, but in only one game they have had >80 yards rushing, and that was the big win @ Denver.
KC haven't allowed less than 78 yards on the ground at home all season, lost 4 of their last 5 (at home, and overall) and I don't think the rookie can have the same success aas Johnson did in the first meeting.

Tenn -3.5 (Will take a 3 if availabe closer to KO, but not entirely fussed about it!!)

League: 20-0 SU! (15-4-1 ats...av. win 13.5) home 3+ fav, inside Conf, off a 21+ ats loss as (-3, +3), if they won the last meeting ats. [Tenn]
11-1 ats (Av. win 16.2) if opp was last a dog.

The Titans are by far the better team here...Haynesworth is a HUGE inclusion this week, after giving up big points in the 3 weeks he has missed.
Tenn are still 5th in overall D tho, and give up only 15.8 ppg at home.
Houston's wins have all come v. losing teams, combined record of 15-39!...and they were lucky to even get close in the last meeting, scoring 29 in the last, scored on a fumble recovery early, recovered an onside kick...scored from a 53 yard heave on a broken play...Collins was at QB, and they still lost!! :scared
Houston barely cracked 300 yards and scored just 17 on a terrible Brownies D last week, so really tough to see how they keep this one within a TD.


Right!! That's it for sure!! (Are there any games left... :shrug: )

 

[baby johnson]

thanks mc, letz get em hard...

 

[Coach Burns]

Page 2....Are you kidding me???? Nice day
going mrChristo.... let's finish strong...any
opionion on the Sun nite game...Think the
Bungles keep it close ??? How is the weather
and field condition after last monday....

Good luck and kick ass
Coach Burns

 

[MrChristo]

Thanks Coach. :toast:

No real opinion on the late game...Wish I had have grabbed the under @ 48 when it first came out!!!...but surely they can't let the field be that bad 2 weeks in a row...Surely!!!

I'll just sit back and root for the Bengals...I've got the Brownies to win the Div, so hopefully they can get up...even if they don't a Pittsburgh slip up today will be very handy indeed! :SIB

(I sure hope I didn't talk you out of taking the Vikes, vb... What a joke the Det road D is!! :scared )

[EDIT: Oh, and Pawa...if you're about, no 'root' jokes, eh! :nono: :142smilie ]

 

[Agent 0659]

Dam was I happy to see I agreed with you on 5 plays today!

And not surprisingly, I won!

Keep it up man...:00hour

 

[Coach Burns]

9-1......:00hour :00hour :00hour :00hour
What a freaking good day...glad I was
coattailing ya...

Good luck and kick ass
Coach Burns

 

[hawki]

Great Great day. Thanks Christo. I'm glad I tailed you.

 

[trolln4walii]

Awesome MrC :00hour Just keeps getting better and better!!! :toast:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

No 'rootin' jokes from me C.......I'm too busy counting the ca$h you've made me this season. It could be a whole lot more if I stop tailing these americans & giving some of it back!! What do they know about their own national sport??!! :shrug: :mj07:

I'll follow the aussie from here on in and home-grow the bankroll till seasons end.


Simply awesome day Christo :clap: I'm spewing I missed those last two!


Keep on rollin' brother

 

[nagrawa]

Great picks. Congrats on a great day

 

[Dizzayton]

simply awesome.