Central Mich????
- Thread starter Cash Man
- Start date
Haven't looked at the game at all, but I'm guessing they're the road team? Playing road teams in college hoops is scary. Teams very rarely play well on the road, but they usually look like worldbeaters at home.
Say what you want, it's true. And it's why college hoops is by far my most profitable sport. It's very predictable IMO, and it's a sport that favors situational bettors big time.
so you don't bet road teams? i'd love to go back and look at the record of my road team plays this year. guarantee it's right in line w/ my home team plays.
I don't bet road faves at all. Especially small road faves. I will bet road dogs if the price is right. My experience has been that playing home teams is much easier than road teams. I'm not saying road faves don't cover, it just seems like those games are much tougher to win than home games.
But I'm certainly not trying to tell anyone what games to play. If you do well betting road teams, more power to ya.
But I'm certainly not trying to tell anyone what games to play. If you do well betting road teams, more power to ya.
you've probably gotten a little more time in the game than me but i think some people, you seem to be one, seem to put more emphasis on certain things than is appropriate.
road faves 2-6
road teams, period.
the old "unranked home team vs. ranked"
revenge factors
a few i think lots of people don't look at enough...
# of seniors, turnovers, rebounding... you know, stuff that actually affects the ball going through the hoop and not in the hands of the other team.
i'm not saying being on the road doesn't matter but during xmas break in a low to mid-major matchup... come on. crossing the country, sure. driving that 7 miles across town in raleigh-durham, sure. going into so. illinois where they're 81-4 L85, sure.
sorry, i just try to add to the conversation when people over simplify and try to rely too much on little stuff like that instead of digging deep into matchups.
and as i'll always say... you can't use one game to prove a point in this long-run game.
road faves 2-6
road teams, period.
the old "unranked home team vs. ranked"
revenge factors
a few i think lots of people don't look at enough...
# of seniors, turnovers, rebounding... you know, stuff that actually affects the ball going through the hoop and not in the hands of the other team.
i'm not saying being on the road doesn't matter but during xmas break in a low to mid-major matchup... come on. crossing the country, sure. driving that 7 miles across town in raleigh-durham, sure. going into so. illinois where they're 81-4 L85, sure.
sorry, i just try to add to the conversation when people over simplify and try to rely too much on little stuff like that instead of digging deep into matchups.
and as i'll always say... you can't use one game to prove a point in this long-run game.
i think the refs need to swallow their whistles a little... saw this kind of whistle happy foul calling last night in the kansas/ga tech game... what's with it? more than a foul a minute.
That's fine if you think it's oversimplified logic. I realize it's a blanket statement to say I don't like to bet road teams. But again, I'm just going off of my experience. I just know that I've seen over and over and over teams struggle on the road when the line "looks like a gift" or when the stats say they should crush the home team. I can recall quite a few easy spread winners on home teams, but over the last few years I can't recall too many games where I bet on a road team and they crushed the spread. Those games seem to be more of a struggle.
As for the small road fave, I only worry when it's -1 to -4 or so. It's always a red flag to me when the line is -3 or less. Maybe it's nothing more than coincidence, but it could also be an enticing line trying to get action. How many people liked LSU tonight? I'm not saying that was a trap line, I'm just saying it was a small road fave that played poorly. And it seems like a lot of small road faves don't cover for whatever reason.
And FWIW, I put a huge premium on revenge games in college sports, but only when the team seeking revenge is the home team. Even better if it's a rivalry game for the home team.
No big papi, I'm not playing that game. The only games I played tonight were Butler and New Mexico. Still have New Mexico pending.
I would lean to UNLV tonight, and I think they have a good shot of winning outright. But like I said, didn't like it enough to play it. GL with your plays...
I would lean to UNLV tonight, and I think they have a good shot of winning outright. But like I said, didn't like it enough to play it. GL with your plays...
