SuperBowl XLII

[MrChristo]

78-40 on the season...and I'm not entirely sure that is going to change!

Man, have I been round and round in circles over this game!!
...the one thing I do keep coming back to is the Giants +14.
Not sure what the line has in store over the next few days, but being the biggest game of the year, I may well do a Scotty and buy out to 2 TD's if I have to. :00hour

The more I think about the total, the more I think it is very close to the mark.
Obviously NYG will try to run, and take away the deep ball...but they've been doing that in all 3 play-off's and still scoring in the 20's!!
NE seem to be wanting to run more, or has it all been weather related??

With Jacobs and Bradshaw splitting carries it's almost impossible to take a rushing prop...
...I have seen a NYG team rush of over ~105, but it was laying some serious juice, besides which there's always that chance they are forced to throw at some point.

NE rushing numbers have been pretty bad on the road, but with this "new" found willingness to hand off, taking the under is tough.

One prop I did originally like was under 4 sacks, but Dallas got to Eli 3 times...and Brady's possible lack of mobility could cause problems there too.

I saw a prop for NYG to have under 3 rushers at decent odds...
...tough to see it losing...they had just 1 non-RB rush all season...Shockey had one v. Miami (a backward pass maybe??)...
...but you're effectively betting on Eli not taking off. (Or kneeling! :scared ) ...and chances are he will at some stage.

So...after all that, as I said, the only thing I keep coming back to is the Giants to keep it close. :shrug:


I would like to thank everyone that's been in a thread of mine all season...esp. those I've had personal contact with ( :toast: )...it's all helped to make this a very enjoyable season indeed.

Hope to see a few of you in the Off The all section, as our Aussie Rules (AFL) season gets under way early March, and I'm definately looking forward to that. :0corn
(Actually, we do have a 4 week pre-season, but in the past books have only released lines an hour or so before game time...besides a LOT of rookies running around and some "experimental" rules, generally make it a crap shoot anyway! )

Best of Luck to everyone come Sunday, and for the few months we all have to endure with the NFL. :drinky:

 

[Tdog72]

Newbie

Newbie

I am new here and this is my first post...been reading many o posts since around week 4 or 5 and have beeen reading them every week since. Mr Christo is one I make sure to read on a weekly basis and have gone with your plays quite a few times....Thanks for your input......my problem is just picking the winners and staying with them, once I am up I play on anything and everything with a spread, no pun intended . Anywhooo...thought I would finally pipe up and say something since I plan on saying alot starting Week One next season...so here goes......

As you Christo...I have been up and down and alll over the place in coming up with a play here and am surprisingly enough for myself going the exact opposite then your play....I LOVE NE exploding in this game and running away with it , maybe even by half time...this startup line at 14 is all about Giant $$$ and alll the Pat sayers are just waiting and waiting for that line to move a little more....I say before that game kicks off its back up to 14 if not higher.....watch the Pat plays start flying in before kickoff......either way , no matter what the line does I say NE blasts Eli in his SB debut and the rest of his clan with him.....not to take anything away from the Giants.....they have been a good play for sometime now and I know some people who are rich because of them , anyway until next season.....my first ever play on this site says

NE - 12 and play it HEAVY!!!

Small play Under 54 but with dome up and no weather elements could ofcourse go either way...just a gut feeling on this one

Peace

 

[AR182]

mr c...

congrats on an outstanding year...& thanks for your contribution to the nfl forum...

good luck...

 

[PAWAQATSI]

You've kicked ass this season Christo and put a good 'chunka' change into my accounts. Thanks for all the hours you put into this business, as it's appreciated by many here. Besides........it's always amusing watching an 'outsider' show the locals a thing or two about betting their own sport!! :mj07:

Will join you in Off the Wall soon enough to rock & roll with the AFL betting.


Fly your butt up to Melbourne during the season and we'll catch a game or two. :SIB

 

[Kazaam]

I make sure I catch your posts every week, Great job all season long! Hoping to hit a gap between 10 and 14 pts for 10 units. Leaning to NE but cannot make up my mind on which side to take.

Good Luck!

 

[LonghornMM]

Thanks for the post Mr. C. I'm leaning heavily with taking the points and also like the under as well.

 

[Dizzayton]

Great season Mr. Christo. You are a class act. My thoughts on the Superbowl, for what it's worth, Giants are a tough team, battle tested, not afraid, and nothing to lose, which makes them very dangerous. There gameplan will be simple: make it tough for Pats to get the big play, try to make big special teams play and create turnovers. On offense, mix up Jacobs and Bradshaw and take a few shots to Burress. They need to run it alot to keep ball away from Pats offense. Belichick knows this and is a master of taking away what the other team does best. I think Belichick's gameplan is to completely shut down the run and hope Samuel or Harrison or somebody else can intercept Manning. I think Pats will be able to stop Giants running game, if they cannot look for the Giants to pull the upset. The question is do Gilbride and Coughlin have a plan B to open up the passing game to try to trick up Belichick if he tries to overload on the run, and if they do have a plan B, can Manning execute it. Based on the above, I think that Pats will not turn the ball over on offense and will score points, but I think Giants may be able to run the ball enough to keep in tight. If Belichick can devise a gameplan to stop the run Pats will likely blow Giants out, but I don't think the Pats have the players to completely shut down the young legs of the Giants RB and very physical strong O-line. The thing people overlook in this matchup is how big and physical the Giants O-line is. The Giants completely manhandled Tampa earlier in the postseason. If Pats do cover, it will be due to late Giants turnover and they will win by 14-17. I already took my chances with the Giants +12.5.
Good luck.

 

[THE KOD]

78-40 on the season...and I'm not entirely sure that is going to change!

Man, have I been round and round in circles over this game!!
...the one thing I do keep coming back to is the Giants +14.
Not sure what the line has in store over the next few days, but being the biggest game of the year, I may well do a Scotty and buy out to 2 TD's if I have to. :00hour

...............................................................

great NFL season. you make alot of unorthodox plays from what I have seen. And thats not a bad thing.

I will tell you this, there are alot worse people to listen to than KOD.

Super Bowl Sunday , cant beat it :00hour