KCwolf...I don't have a dog in this fight and I respect your record.
That being said, I'm posting something of interest that I retreived from another forum. Use it for reference and come to your own conclusions.
My numbers make this game too close to call and I located this while trolling for more info...
Sunday.......
1* North Carolina State +5.5 (-115)
1* North Carolina State ML (+200)
Virginia is an embarassing 1-12 vs teams in the top 100 RPI rankings and an unimpressive 2-9 in ACC play. The Cavaliers nearly upset North Carolina, but the Tarheels were coming off games against ACC rivals Duke and Clemson, so their performance and focus suffered as a result. In my opinion, a team who is 1-12 vs top 100 RPI teams is in no way deserving of laying 5.5 to many teams, especially not to an NC St team with a very misleading 15-11 record. The misleading record is a result of the 27th toughest schedule in the country. The Wolfpack has played 16 games vs top 100 RPI teams and have won exactly half of those games. The win column includes victims such as Villanova, Davidson, Cincinnati, Miami, and Florida St.
This line makes perfect sense to me for two reasons. First, Virginia's last two games featured a one point loss to UNC and a conference win over Boston College. Secondly, NC St has lost 4 consectutive games. While the line makes sense, I believe there is excellent value and that the wrong team is favored. As already mentioned, Virginia's near upset of UNC is not valid in my mind considering the situation that UNC faced in that game. I also discredit the four game losing streak for NC St considering three of the opponents were Maryland, Clemson, and UNC.
Statistically, Virginia ranks near or at the bottom of every major offensive and defensive category. In terms of style, Virginia favors a fast paced game that allows Sean Singletary to maximize the advantage created by his speed and quickness. However, NC St will most likely force a slow pace and half court battles which will disrupt and frustrate Virginia. In regards to size, NC St has a clear advantage on the interior and should be able to take advantage of Virginia's league worst defense.
Trends:
-NC ST is 20-6 ATS in the last 26 games as a road underdog of .5 to 6.5 points
-NC ST is 8-0 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Virginia
-NC ST is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings against Virginia
-Road Team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between NC ST and UVA
Good Luck on your action...
