Championship Week One Thread

[Toledo Prophet]

First week of Championship Week, and I will keep a running thread of my picks. I will use this thread through at least Sunday before creating a new one for next week. Included this week will be plays for the final week of regular season in addition to the league tourneys, some of which start tonight!!

Lets All Make Some Cash!! Happy March Madness!!

Purdue +3 OSU.....staying on the Boilers, who have been my biggest money maker of the season. OSU is, how shall we say, trending downward.

Purdue is for 2 unit.

Good Luck

PLEASE NOTE, I DELETED THE MOREHEAD PICK BECAUSE IT HAD ALREADY TIPPED AND i COULD NOT GET THE PICK IN.......THOUGHT IT WAS AN 8:00 TIP. PURDUE HAD NOT TIPPED YET, SO I AM STILL ON IT FOR A "DOUBLE PLAY." SORRY FOR ANY CONFUSION.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

March Madness Thread YTD: 0-0-2

Boilers in control all night vis a vis the spread, blow it in the end, and score a hoop at the end giving me a lucky push. I had to keep reminding myself I did not win that bet this morning while getting ready for work. Hey, at least it was not a loss, so I should just shut the bleep up!

Onward to tonight with some regular season action as nothing on the league tourney front caught my eye tonight, although there was not much on the board anyway. Here goes:

Baylor -1 over Tamu. DOUBLE PLAY.

While conventional wisdom says the Bears are struggling and are a bubble team, it is worth pointing out they are on a 5-0 ATS run. They struggled during the middle of the season as the schedule got tougher and a bulls eye started to appear on their backs, but they've won four in a row and won covers in five straight. This team has more weapons than the Aggies and I expect the Bears to outlast the Aggies once again, although it wont take five overtimes to do it. Aggies are trending downward and are 0-4 ATS this year as a dog in the other guy's gym. I would not be surprised if Baylor just runs them out of the gym, but I respect the Aggie program enough to know they will scrape tonight and not roll over and play dead two games in a row. But, this is Baylor's time and they can smell their first NCAA bid in years. They have too much fire power for the Aggies tonight. Its probably worth mentioning that Baylor is 28-15-2 ATS the last three years in Big 12 play. I love the Baylor Bears tonight.

Kentucky +3 over South Carolina. SINGLE PLAY.

We all made fun of UK in November and December, but who is laughing now? The Cats have become a money maker the last two months, going 10-4SU and ATS in SEC play. They shoot well and defend the shot well. Gillespie, like at UTEP and TAMU, is back to his winning, and, more importantly, covering ways. In UK we have a team that is 55th in field goal percentage vs a South Carolina team that is 207th in the nation in field goal defense. UK is more than comfortable on the road, going 5-2 SU and ATS in road SEC games this season. In their last five road games, UK is shooting a shade under 50 percent, with the dud against Vanderbily the reason that mark does not sail over 50 percent. In recent games against the league's soft underbelly, UK has made more shots than missed. Included in that run were home games against SC and UGA and road games at UGA, Aub and LSU. UK did struggle big time at Vandy, but Columbia is no Nashville. The Gamecocks are only 2-8 ATS in their last ten home games and are just 2-5 SU and ATS at home vs SEC foes this season. Columbia has not exactly been a house of horrors for Kentucky with the Cats winning 9 of the last 10 games. UK has been in playoff mode since January. They know they are a couple of wins away from earning an improbable tourney bid. They will grind another one tonight. Really like UK a lot, but am only going for a single play here because of the injury to Patterson.

Good Luck tonight!:weed:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

UK was a nice winner.

Still feeling strong about Baylor.

So much so that I added:

Baylor -2.5 2H, for a single play.

Go Bears!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

March Madness Thread YTD: 1-3-1

Great pick with UK yesterday.....crappy pick with Baylor.......even dumber on my part to take them in the 2nd half as well.....oh well.

For tonight:

Clemson ML, -140 over Georgia Tech.......single play........Tech has already lost at home this year to Virginia, Miami, Maryland and Florida St. The Clemson Tigers are better than all those outfits. Throw out their 0-3 record vs UNC and Duke and Clemson has not really been bested by too many others this season. Think the "Mo" from Sunday carries over and think they will have a shooting and rebounding edge tonight. Ga Tech has been an enigma and really look like they are playing out the string.

Might have more plays later tonight.

Good luck!!!

 

[the cableman]

gl to ya TP..Lost on Baylor myself..UGGG

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adding two more tonight.

Both single plays:

Mich St -2 over Illinois....yes MSU struggled at Iowa and PSU, but c'mon Illinois has been a great fade all season. MSU appears to be peaking. Izzo > Weber. Sparty finds a way tonight.

Joe +2 over Xavier. Hate betting against the X, but Joe is desperate and a pretty talented team. Besides, cant go wrong taking a flier one one of the Wizzard's picks!!

Good luck!

 

[spang]

Nice night,

looking forward to your Wright/ Valpo match up tomorrow. Wright St. -1 got hit quick from the pick em opener. I grabbed some early.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

March Madness Thread YTD: 3-4-1

2-1 day yesterday, hopefully thats the start of a hitting streak.

Hey Spang! Good luck this March. And, yep, I agree this will be a good game to watch and I will be on the Raiders:

So, for Friday night:

Wright State -1 over Valpo. Single Play. Close to tip, so wont waste time with a write up. Third time a charm for the Raiders. They have a habit of winning games under the radar and/or when people doubt them. Like their chances in this tournament overall.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adding the following:

Illinois St -2 over Missouri State. Single Play.

This is too tempting to pass up. With the Birds, you have a team that played better than everyone not named Drake this year in the MVC. A team looking to crash its way into the tournament by stealing the auto bid or even impressing enough this weekend for an at large bid. They have to win tonight or all those dreams become dashed. Sure, Mizz State is facing elimination as well, but the Bears just have not been a winning team all season long. ISU finished five games ahead of them in the standings. These squads played twice last month and ISU won by 12 at home and by 1 on the road. Both teams are coming in playing well, and I do think the Bears will play tough. ISU will just pull away in the end and keep their quest for the tourney alive. Check out these numbers for MSU: away from home this year, the Bears are just 2-13 SU, 2-12 ATS. The home state edge wont really help them tonight.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

March Madness Thread YTD: 4-5-1

Big Day Today. High stakes hoops all over the place today from auto bids on the line, regular season titles to bubble battles.

Starting early with the Big South Title Game.

UNC Asheville -1 over Winthrop. I hate going against Winthrop who have owned this league for the better part of the decade. With Gaynor and Jenkins in the back court, they have players who have been key parts to winning this game the last couple of years. But, they are on the road today in this one whereas all the other title gamme were played at their place. Asheville has the back court to match Winthrp. We have Winthrop highly regarded D going up against UNCA'a highly regarded O (UNCA is in the top ten nationally in the fg%). But, UNCA already has 2 double digit wins over Winthrop this year. They have figured out this D and scored over 70, and 13 more points than Winthrop gives up on average, on this court wheny they played each other five weeks ago today. Of Coure, the Giant George is the difference. His presence helped them pull away in the second half of a tight semi final against vs. Liberty. Expect the same thing to happen today as UNCA breaks Winthrop's hold on the conference and advances into the NCAA's.

Note: I just changed the bet from -140 ML to -1. Made the bet the right after I posted and it had gone down. While i like the less juice, I do not know if this should make me good or bad about the bet. Who cares!?!?! I'm gonna have a fun time watching, so hopefully I can make a buck!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adding these early games. Both Single Plays (as was the UNCA pick in the Big South.....forgot to mention that:

Georgetown ML, -160 over Louisville......Lousiville did not play all that well while winning the first game. It was a tight slug fest, both teams had long FG droughts. The Cards outscored Gtown by almost 20 at the free throw line, and we all know that will not happen today as they are playing on the road. This will be a great game and I am going with the hoe court Hoyas in this one.

Texas Tech -1 over Baylor. I hate going against Baylor. But, Tech plays like a league title contender when they play in Lubbock. They are 10-2 ATS at home this year, and one of those losses was the opener when they favored by 21 but only won by a dozen. They are 6-1 ATS at home vs the Big 12 and the Raiders have been a solid bounce back all season long. They are 9-1 ATS after a loss, including last Saturday when they pulled the upset against Texas. They were coming off a woodshedding heading into the Texas contest, just like today.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adding these:

USC +1 over Stanford. On Gameday, Digger Phelps said the Cardinal will be fired up, steaming mad and wont get swept in LA after that hose job Thursday night. I disagree. Thursday night was draining, and any motivation they'll have to make amends for that bad call will be equalled by USC and their desire to make a statement on national TV. I always take a look at USC in pick and dog spots. While they're not getting more than point, it is worth pointing out that under Tim Floyd, USC is 26-15 ATS as a dog or pick. They are 5-2 in their 7 as a home dog. I'll ride both of those today.

Creighton +4 over Drake. Drake has been a great story and hate betting against them as they have been one of the better money makers for ost of the season. But, they're being chase by a lot of negative history today in their quest to advance to MVC finals. Its been a decade since the top seed in this league one the title. So, I'll be fading Drake as long as they remain in this field. I was not going to step in front of them yesterday against a mediocre at best Indy St club. But, today against perennial power Creighton I will. Blue Jays expect to win these games (like we just saw out of Winthrop, as an example) and they are playing for their season today. They have solid numbers in this spot as well: 11-4 as a dog of less than 7 points, 7-3 as a dog on a neutral floor, and 25-12 vs MVC foes.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adding:

Loyola MD -1 over Fairfield......MAAC tourney should be one of the ore fun and competitive we will see. LM is one of four co-champs. While they only finished one game better in the standings than Fairfield, I think LM is the better team here. Each won the other's home court this year, but I like LM today in a basic pick 'em spot on the neutral floor. They are off a loss, and a great bounce back team. They are 16-5-1 ATS off a loss, 7-3 in the spot this season.

So after a 1-1 start, I now have four bets that are being played right now. That ought to keep me busy!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Sorry, accidently posted something in here meant for today's open thread instead.

Sorry for the inconvenience. :SIB

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Marq/Scuse Over 150.......a book once told me that an over bet is just a cop out because you're too lame to make a call on the side. Thats what this is right here. On one hand, Orange need this win, are at home so take the cheap home team. But, they've also been unclutch this year and their D sucks. They got no chance at containing Dom James. So........cheer for points and both teams. On a serious note, the last three games SU has played will be shootouts. So long as the visiting team has been a good club, the games at the Carrier Dome have been shootouts this year. Both teams average well into the 70's per game with MU just over 76 and SU at 78. While Marquette's D is good, I think the Orange at home can do damage. But, they have not really stopped anyone all season. I see both teams in the 80s when it is all said and done. Who will win? Flip a coin, but i have a sneaky feeling it will be Marquette.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Diving heavy right now into tourney hoops:

CSU -1 over Valpo. Double Play. CSU went 11-7 ATS in the Horizon this year. They're rested while Valpo played a game to the wire last night. Vikings are a tough match up for teams and in their last game Valpo really could not get any stops. Vikings have the look of a sleeper Cinderella this March and the run gets under way here.

Appy St +3 over UNCG Single Play
TSU +3.5 over Austin Peay Single Play

Like both of these games, and am pushed to play them because the forum's OVC/Southern guru is on the both. In that OVC title game, Austin Peay has toruble guarding people aking the a vulnerable top seed and favorite. They were just 10-17-1 ATS this season and rank 304th in FG% defense.

NIU +4.5 over Ill St. Single Play. So far chalk has reigned in the MVC, which is unusual. Leaning on the history of the lower seed dogs doing damage in this tourney. NIU forwarded that theory with a rousing win over SIU last night.

UNCW ML -150 over Delaware. Single Play.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Quick second half play here:

NIU -.5 over ISU. Think they will at least make a run at them.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

One sinlge play so far for tonight.

Providence -1 over Villanova

Just to note, I pulled Jax +7 over Belmont off the post because I was late getting it in. Ended up being a no play.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

The Providence game starts at 7:30, so with a little time here thought I would quick explain why I like them tonight.

We've seen Providence and Depaul both step up this final week so far in the chase for the final spot in the big east tourney. Tiebreaker in their pocket, it is in the Friars hand to extend their season tonight to the Garden next Wednesday. Nova still has at large thoughts, but I dont think there is much difference between these teams. I thought these teams were about even when the season began and both probably underachieved. This is amounts to a playoff game for Providence, they're at home and they are hardly outclassed in this one. I'll take them to win. Villanova is just a limited team and this game will be a near fatal blow to their at large hopes.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Working on an 8-6 day, hopefully Providence has a great second half in them. CSU came up big, UNCW was an easy winner, NIU 2nd H was lucky and of course there were a lot of bets in their I wish I could take back.

Onward to tonight.

Two Double Plays.

Duke pick over UNC. I know UNC has won two in a row at Cameron, but I think that hex ends tonight. This is a better Duke team, than the those years especially in the sense that they have more scoring options and dont have to rely so much on just one guy from the outside. I dont trust UNC's ability to guard anyone in games against fellow elites. Tonight, on the road, at Duke, I have to follow up that analysis with this play. Duke will stretch this D out and be able to hit just about every big shot they will have to take. A lot of those shots will be treys. Duke will allow Hansborough his points, but they will lock up UNC's perimeter. The offenses are equal, but Duke's D is much better. That combined with home court will give Duke a classic win tonight.

Niagara +1 over Marist. Niagara's defense should scare e as much as UNC's, but I like Niagara's overall talent edge in this one. They are 9-2 ATS this year as a single digit favorite, 9-1 if its less than 7 points. Throw in their 6-3 ATS record as a dog and the Purple have been a pretty nice money maker this season. I think they end up in Monday night's final.

Two Single Plays:

Georgia Southern -2 over Charleston. Like the rested team here.

Oregon -1 over Arizona. I'll take Oregon at home to get a big win tonight. I dont know what to make of Arizona, while Oregon just seems to be on a steady upswing right now.

Good Luck tonight! :weed: