Sun
braves 64% (-160)+2
--Hudson had a great spring. Perez so-so. Been waiting for this line but piss-me-off on the scope. 50% range for the 2-run win so pass at +100. Thinking about a piece on a parlay with something Monday. Like the side but not the price.
Mon
Webb-Harang looks like a toss-up.
Sheets had a pretty horrid spring while Zambrano was pretty sharp. Brewers likely with the better offensive numbers on the season but they've struggled on the road in years past. Like Chicago, maybe the only moneyline of the bunch.
Chico-Myers is too expensive. Can't touch this.
Zito struggled this spring while Penny was pretty sharp. Need to see some Dodgers offense to know if they warrant big lines like this.
Santana-Hendrickson looks easy. Priced that way, though. Maybe my second highest rated game, were they all even money.
Francis-Wainwright beats me. Rockies AND Cards could be unpredictable early on.
Glavine-Snell could be a battle. Lean Braves but maybe not to the 60% needed for the line. Snell was so-so this spring outside of the homers allowed.
Oswalt-Peavy is the likely under for the day. Total of 7 reflects that. Astros, too, are a mystery to me until I see more evidence. Both SP's had decent springs.
Meche-Verlander would be my top pick. Thinking Tigers runline but might try 'em with the Braves Sunday. Justin could be hot this year. Gil tough to call but Justin has the stuff and the years on Gil. Offenses should be worlds apart this season.
Halladay-Wang I'll root for the Jays but save my money. Did a 'cap less than a week ago and came up with about 60% for NYY. -150 line means passola. Go Jays!
Shields-Guthrie was a thought. Shields had a decent spring as did the 'Rays all-round. Guthrie had mixed results, same as his '07 campaign. Line reflects books distaste of O's this season. Likely warranted but game #1 is anybody's.
Sabathia(v.Buehrle) line the same as Penny and only slightly more appealing. Sabathia decent this spring but Buehrle was a little better. 'Sox should improve on '07 results...not hard.
Millwood-Bedard. Millwood looked great in his only spring game (5 scoreless) while Bedard was hammered (incl. 9 HR vs in less than 30 IP). Probably not the way the season plays out but Bedard is a streaky pitcher--I'll wait until he's in a groove. Way too expensive here. Fading thoughts of fading.
Weaver-Livan looks like a tough call. Weaver was very hot this spring. Livan less so. Still a high price on the road team for this Metrodome opener. Twins pen just as good--maybe better--while the Angels hit WAY better at home last season. Very tough call. Slight lean Angels.
Just some thoughts.
A couple of plays seems likely.
GL
braves 64% (-160)+2
--Hudson had a great spring. Perez so-so. Been waiting for this line but piss-me-off on the scope. 50% range for the 2-run win so pass at +100. Thinking about a piece on a parlay with something Monday. Like the side but not the price.
Mon
Webb-Harang looks like a toss-up.
Sheets had a pretty horrid spring while Zambrano was pretty sharp. Brewers likely with the better offensive numbers on the season but they've struggled on the road in years past. Like Chicago, maybe the only moneyline of the bunch.
Chico-Myers is too expensive. Can't touch this.
Zito struggled this spring while Penny was pretty sharp. Need to see some Dodgers offense to know if they warrant big lines like this.
Santana-Hendrickson looks easy. Priced that way, though. Maybe my second highest rated game, were they all even money.
Francis-Wainwright beats me. Rockies AND Cards could be unpredictable early on.
Glavine-Snell could be a battle. Lean Braves but maybe not to the 60% needed for the line. Snell was so-so this spring outside of the homers allowed.
Oswalt-Peavy is the likely under for the day. Total of 7 reflects that. Astros, too, are a mystery to me until I see more evidence. Both SP's had decent springs.
Meche-Verlander would be my top pick. Thinking Tigers runline but might try 'em with the Braves Sunday. Justin could be hot this year. Gil tough to call but Justin has the stuff and the years on Gil. Offenses should be worlds apart this season.
Halladay-Wang I'll root for the Jays but save my money. Did a 'cap less than a week ago and came up with about 60% for NYY. -150 line means passola. Go Jays!
Shields-Guthrie was a thought. Shields had a decent spring as did the 'Rays all-round. Guthrie had mixed results, same as his '07 campaign. Line reflects books distaste of O's this season. Likely warranted but game #1 is anybody's.
Sabathia(v.Buehrle) line the same as Penny and only slightly more appealing. Sabathia decent this spring but Buehrle was a little better. 'Sox should improve on '07 results...not hard.
Millwood-Bedard. Millwood looked great in his only spring game (5 scoreless) while Bedard was hammered (incl. 9 HR vs in less than 30 IP). Probably not the way the season plays out but Bedard is a streaky pitcher--I'll wait until he's in a groove. Way too expensive here. Fading thoughts of fading.
Weaver-Livan looks like a tough call. Weaver was very hot this spring. Livan less so. Still a high price on the road team for this Metrodome opener. Twins pen just as good--maybe better--while the Angels hit WAY better at home last season. Very tough call. Slight lean Angels.
Just some thoughts.
A couple of plays seems likely.
GL
