Boxing 7/11 - 7/12

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: +4.00
1 unit play: 2-2 -1.55
1/2 units: 41-21....+1.20
Dogs: 23-39....+4.65
LT's: 1-16....-0.30


7/12

Solis-Donaire Over 7.5 -115...lay .85 to win .75 (winner)

Dog

Thompson over Klitschko +500...lay .10 to win .50 (loser)

Parlays

Klitschko -770 (winner) / Mosley -750 / Calzaghe -330...(-150)...lay .30 to win .20

No 1st round KD's or KO's -1050 (winner) / Mosley -750 / Calzaghe -330...(-165)...lay .65 to win .40

Adamek-Gomez Over 4.5 -170 (winner) / Calzaghe over Jones -370...(even)...lay .25 to win .25


gl bl

 

[Romi]

The board is getting hot again. Water under the bridge as far as I'm concerned. Lets keep the focus on BOXING everybody. This is what it's all about!

I have a med/lrge on alcine/santos over 9 1/2 rds -200.
I also loaded up on Clottey @-220. I maxed out at 3 sites. I also hit the under on that one 11 1/2 + 170 for a max 1 buck. Good luck everybody.

I hit the fish last night (posted on another thread here for about 165.00)

 

[Ghost Kid]

followed you on trout

thanks romi

i too think santos/alcine goes over...i think its a distance fight

 

[MayorgaFan]

Dog

Thompson over Klitschko +500...lay .10 to win .50

I know the difference isn't huge but you don't think it's just better to bet Thompson by KO? I have a hard time seeing him winning a decision. Wlad doesn't lose to many rounds in his fights.

 

[gardenweasel]

i can understand your rationale,because it looks to me like both guy`s jabs might get offset here(lefty/righty)....we`ve seen how klit likes to hold that gig paw out there to fend off and gauge distance.....

but what if after a few rounds,serious fatigue sets in and we have a wrestling match?...from what i`ve seen,thompson likes to work inside a bit...

after watching tony/kras,i don`t think that krasniqi was really ever hurt(maybe he felt those body shots),but it looked more like he just became discouraged...

that`s a tough call...i`d hate to lose a +550 wager by being greedy and trying to grab an extra +200.....klit doesn`t see to many skilled leftys(without the big punch)that actually see eye to eye with him...and to be honest,i`ve seen to many unexpected outcomes of late....

a guy,who hasn`t weighed in could play a little on both,though... ..

i actually grabbed a little of the draw....if thompson happens to wear down wlady but can`t finish,i could see the draw haoppening...

i was seriously looking for hedges......on a whim i parlayed thompson with gianluca branco and got 15+-1.....

any suggestions are welcome...-i have this golden goose sitting there,but,i don`t bet outrageous amounts,so -700 or so would cut into my profits in a big way....

even if klit wins,i haven`t really lost that much...

i`ll probably just stand pat...

(that was a rambling,disjointed post...it`s 7:30 a.m. eastern time friday...i`m still not awake).........

 

[weepaul]

I am betting Cruz to beat Angel Huerta at +400. I think Huerta gets overated since his great showing against Kid Diamond.

I also have a $100 throw away bet on the ladies. Achieng to beat Ragosina at +3000. I won't be surprised if this bet loses in the first round but you never know with the ladies.

I have a small bet on Thompson. You never know when Wlad is going to get "Poisened" again and run out of gas. It has happened twice, so you never know.

I waited too long on a Santos bet so no action. I think Alcine will win on points.

Good luck all.

 

[Zerwas]

Does Vanda have a shot against Chavez!?

Vanda's been fighting as a middleweight lately, he's bigger than Chavez usual opponents.

Vanda says he's 100% for this fight, whatever thats worth.

It's a 10 round fight, so Chavez will have to be more active.

Vanda @+1200
over 8.5 +160 (Bodog)

 

[Zerwas]

I'm on Cruz too!

Santos by decision at+770!!!

 

[frank s.]

From what I can gather, Vanda will be swinging for the fences with every shot. What that means I am not sure. He may leave himself open; he may get lucky; it may end in a KO. The venue being what it is a decision win for Vanda seems a long shot. Chavez Sr. is VERY carefully giuding his son's career so this is a well planned event. This seems like a w/e of taking the odds with the dogs. The forum seems to be on the puppies in a big way.

 

[Kramden]

I expect Vanda to be man-handled by Chavez. Whether it goes over/under 8.5 rounds is the question. Vanda only stopped once, but losing a lot lately. I slightly lean to Chavez to get it done in under 8.5 rounds.

:0corn

 

[MayorgaFan]

i can understand your rationale,because it looks to me like both guy`s jabs might get offset here(lefty/righty)....we`ve seen how klit likes to hold that gig paw out there to fend off and gauge distance.....

but what if after a few rounds,serious fatigue sets in and we have a wrestling match?...from what i`ve seen,thompson likes to work inside a bit...

after watching tony/kras,i don`t think that krasniqi was really ever hurt(maybe he felt those body shots),but it looked more like he just became discouraged...

that`s a tough call...i`d hate to lose a +550 wager by being greedy and trying to grab an extra +200.....klit doesn`t see to many skilled leftys(without the big punch)that actually see eye to eye with him...and to be honest,i`ve seen to many unexpected outcomes of late....

a guy,who hasn`t weighed in could play a little on both,though... ..

i actually grabbed a little of the draw....if thompson happens to wear down wlady but can`t finish,i could see the draw haoppening...

i was seriously looking for hedges......on a whim i parlayed thompson with gianluca branco and got 15+-1.....

any suggestions are welcome...-i have this golden goose sitting there,but,i don`t bet outrageous amounts,so -700 or so would cut into my profits in a big way....

even if klit wins,i haven`t really lost that much...

i`ll probably just stand pat...

(that was a rambling,disjointed post...it`s 7:30 a.m. eastern time friday...i`m still not awake).........

Let's be honest though. The handspeed difference in this fight is really very big. Thompson's hands are slow and he's pretty stationary to be honest. it's going to be really hard to win a decision with those traits against Wlad. While he may be similiar in size, he's not similiar in skill set.

 

[gardenweasel]

Let's be honest though. The handspeed difference in this fight is really very big. Thompson's hands are slow and he's pretty stationary to be honest. it's going to be really hard to win a decision with those traits against Wlad. While he may be similiar in size, he's not similiar in skill set.

i totally agree on the speed factor...tony`s verrrry "deliberate"(thats a benevolent way of saying he`s slow as shit)...but he has some skill...

the things that make this winnable for thompson is the fact that klit has horrible stamina...and the lefty/righty issue...

wlad got away with alot of "measuring" vs little ibragimov and brewster....vs a tall lefty,i don`t think it`s gonna work...

as i said,imo,alot will depend on who misses the jab less....

the skill thing?.....yeah, wlad is very skilled for a big man...that`s not his problem,imo...his head(mental) and stamina are his achilles heels...

whereas his brother may not be as skilled,imo,he was the better heavyweight because of his mental toughness.....

ii think we`re gonna find out alot about wldy here...at 36,thompsion`s running short on time...and he knows it...

btw...if chavez doesn`t beat vanda like he owes him money,then he ain`t all that...

why is he fighting vanda?...couldn`t they find a beatable opponent with a pulse?....

 

[Ghost Kid]

my 3 plays for tonight

adamek/gomez over 4.5

santos/alcine over 9.5

small dog play on santos

good luck to everyone

and lets hope tony the tiger can get klit tomorrow !

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a late parlay...

Adamek-Gomez Over 4.5 -170 / Calzaghe over Jones -370...(even)...lay .25 to win .25

Just read an opinion from a guy I respect who has seen Gomez a few times, says he's a very tough bastard at 200, Adamek stepping up from 175 and not having that much power

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adamek line is still on the board, I know a couple of guys showed interest in the Over 4.5 in this fight and I agreed but wanted to get more info on Gomez before playing the -175 odds at SB...no parlays. 5dimes copied the line giving me the parlay option and I finally found a decent boxing guy who has seen Gomez a few times and thinks this will go rounds

gl bl

 

[Ghost Kid]

great call bro !

 

[gardenweasel]

good job on that over 4.5...

 

[Zerwas]

Has anybody seen the fight!?

I had money on the over 4.5 and over 6.5 rounds.

The payout was much better for over 6.5 rounds...+150 actually seemed much to high, I thought I was missing something...
now I read that Gomez quit at the beginning of the seventh round citing an injured arm. :/

 

[punchmaster]

Has anybody seen the fight!?

I had money on the over 4.5 and over 6.5 rounds.

The payout was much better for over 6.5 rounds...+150 actually seemed much to high, I thought I was missing something...
now I read that Gomez quit at the beginning of the seventh round citing an injured arm. :/

I watched it while watching the live internet stream of Alcine Santos. He was claiming damaged/broken right hand... it may have been a way out, just very overmatched and guaranteed punishment..

 

[gardenweasel]

this could have ended up being a minor losing weekend(losing a small par on the alcine over and probably losing a nice doggie parlay pending on thompson at incredible odds)........

but i don`t like losing,so i`m gonna do something i shouldn`t do...i hedged with klit inside at -185.....

i just believe that the jabs won`t be an issue,so,i`m expecting the power hands will be used more in this fight...

that,and the fact that of the 3 methods of defense in boxing(using your feet/moving your head/standing in and blocking punches),thompson utilizes the "blocking punches" method almost exclusively....so he`ll be standing in...his foot and head movement are almost nill...

so klitschko,after being roundly criticized after that borefest vs ibragimov(even by emmanuel steward)should be more offensive......and i doubt it`ll be the jab he`ll be using...that should be somewhat nullified by thompson`s stance,height and his own jab......

also, given thompson`s own admission that he`ll have to pressure klitschko,i expect somebody`s gonna get hit today...

so,i`ll play enough on klit inside at -185,to ensure a winning day and to offset the 15-1 pending thompson parlay...

it loses,i go 0-fer 3 on the weekend...i`m due for a down weekend,and that`s fine.....the board`s been good to me lately...